Sometimes you run across a bet and you simply can’t fathom how it could lose. For those of you who have been betting on the NFL for a long time, you know that’s probably a sign you should stay far away.
That’s the dilemma I’m facing with Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop for Thursday night’s season-opener between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams. But I’m not shying away, and neither should you. This is my favorite prop bet of the night, and I’m officially dubbing it the “don’t overthink it idiot must-bet prop of the week.”
Cooper Kupp consistently smashed his receiving yards prop last season
It was a season of sheer dominance for Kupp in 2021-22.
The Rams WR led the NFL in catches (145), receiving yards (1,947), receiving touchdowns (16), and a plethora of other categories in the regular season. It was one of the most prolific years for a wide receiver in league history, and it made his prop backers very, very happy.
In 21 total games played including the playoffs, Kupp went 16-5 to the over on his receiving yards prop. He recorded at least 92 receiving yards in all but two games. Sportsbooks started lining him in the triple digits by the end of the season, and he still flew over the total on a regular basis.
The Kupp receiving yards prop was a cash cow all year. If you bet $110 to win $100 on his over every week, you would’ve finished the season up $1,050 (assuming -110 juice on every bet).
We haven’t been able to cash in on this money-printer for six months, but the time has finally come.
Cooper Kupp over 94.5 receiving yards is the prop bet you need to take for Bills-Rams
Winning trends don’t normally last long in the NFL. Sportsbooks are smart enough to adjust lines so that specific bets don’t keep crushing them every week.
That’s the case for Kupp’s receiving yards prop this week, as FanDuel has his line set at 94.5. It’s extremely rare to see a prop in this market lined above 90, but books have no choice when it comes to Kupp. And yet, I still think it’s too low.
Tre’Davious White, the star cornerback for the Bills, will not play on Thursday night as he continues to recover from a torn ACL. That leaves Dane Jackson and rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Bentford as the top-three options for Buffalo at CB. Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are also not 100% healthy heading into the season. Talk about an appetizing matchup.
The Rams are going to need to score at least 24-28 points to keep up with Josh Allen, and that means Matt Stafford should be throwing a ton to his favorite weapon. No more Odell Beckham Jr. for this LA offense, and Van Jefferson will also miss the game with a knee injury.
This has the makings of a 15-target game for Kupp, and if he hauls in even eight of them, he should soar past this line of 94.5. Jump on the “don’t overthink it idiot must-bet prop of the week” before it’s too late.
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