Why the Green Bay Packers Will Go Under Their Win Total This Season

The Green Bay Packers have been the best and most consistent regular season team over the last three seasons. They’ve won 13 games in each of the first three years of the Matt LaFleur era, and their 39 wins since 2019 are the most in the NFL over that span.

With that said, it might come as a bit of a surprise that Green Bay’s win total for the 2022-23 season currently sits at just 10.5. That’s an easy over bet, right?

Wrong.

The Green Bay Packers have the third-highest win total in the NFL

Aaron Rodgers looks to pass during training camp.
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers works out during training camp | Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Packers are coming off three straight 13-win seasons, but they don’t have the highest win total in the NFL this year. Both the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set at 11.5, while the Packers are tied for the third-highest at 10.5.

The Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Rams are all tied with Green Bay at 10.5.

The Packers return much of the same roster from last year’s 13-4 squad, but they suffered one of the biggest losses of the offseason when they traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. Aaron Rodgers has been able to rely on Adams as his top target for the last eight seasons, and now he’ll have to make do with Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, and a duo of rookies in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.

The Adams loss has dominated the offseason for Green Bay, but the team also lost wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, right tackle Billy Turner, and linebacker Za’Darius Smith in free agency.

This isn’t a Packers team you can simply pencil in for double-digit wins. In fact, you should do the opposite in 2022-23.

Why you should bet the Packers to go under 10.5 wins

Rodgers may not think he needs Adams to enjoy another MVP-caliber season, but I disagree. Adams saw 169 targets in this offense last season, while no other WR on the roster had more than 60. Rodgers almost solely looked Adams’ way in every third-down and goal-line situation, so those will no longer be as easy as they have been for eight years.

With Turner signing with the Denver Broncos and David Bakhtiari’s health still a major question mark, Green Bay’s offensive line won’t be as dominant as it has been of late. I think this offense is going to struggle mightily in the first half of the season.

As for the schedule, the Packers drew the Buccaneers, Bills, Cowboys, Titans, Eagles, Rams, and Dolphins out of their division. The NFC North should also be stronger this season with the Vikings upgrading their coaching staff and the Lions improving their roster greatly.

The 13-win Packers of years past are gone. Green Bay will win nine or 10 games this year, and it’ll go under its win total of 10.5.

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