Sportsbooks have been lying to themselves in the NFL MVP betting market for months. At first, they tried to tell us Josh Allen already had one hand on the trophy a few weeks into the season. Then, after the Buffalo Bills struggled for a stretch, books changed their tune and made Patrick Mahomes the name to beat.
But the rightful winner isn’t either of those two quarterbacks. In fact, he’s been right in front of our eyes the whole time. The oddsmakers just didn’t want to see him.
Jalen Hurts, who’s been the best player on the best team in football all season long, has been the MVP since Week 1, and he’s finally getting the respect he deserves from sportsbooks.
Jalen Hurts has been the NFL MVP all season
Jalen Hurts is unquestionably the MVP of the NFL, and that’s been the case since the beginning of the season. Sportsbooks may not have agreed until now, but it’s clear when you look at his entire body of work.
Let’s take a look at Hurts’ stats through 13 games and where he ranks among QBs who have started at least six games:
Passing yards: 3,157 (10th)
Completion percentage: 68.0% (T-4th)
Yards per attempt: 8.1 (T-2nd)
Touchdown passes: 22 (T-5th)
Interceptions: 3 (1st)
QBR: 70.4 (4th)
Passer rating: 108.2 (1st)
Rushing yards: 686 (3rd)
Rushing touchdowns: 10 (1st)
Hurts ranks ahead of Mahomes in five of those nine statistical categories, and he’s doing it with 123 fewer pass attempts. The Eagles signal-caller has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league all year, which is remarkable considering what he was as a passer last season.
In Hurts’ first full season as the starter, he completed just 61.3% of his pass attempts and threw just 16 touchdowns to nine interceptions. The QB struggled to read defenses, wasn’t accurate enough in the pocket, and relied on his legs too much. Even though he led the Eagles to the postseason, it wasn’t because of his arm.
That’s completely flipped this season. Hurts’ transformation to a decisive pocket-passer with lethal accuracy has turned Philadelphia into the most feared team in the league, and it should make him the first MVP in franchise history.
Jalen Hurts MVP: Eagles QB is finally the betting favorite over Patrick Mahomes
At long last, Hurts is finally the betting favorite to win MVP at nearly every sportsbook after 13 weeks of stellar, mistake-free play. At FanDuel, Hurts is currently a -150 favorite ($150 bet wins $100) to win the award. Mahomes is right behind him at +200, and Joe Burrow is the next-closest contender at +750.
Mahomes’ passing stats are obviously more impressive than Hurts’, and they have been all season. But the Kansas City Chiefs throw the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, whereas the Eagles throw at the third-lowest rate. Hurts has also thrown the fewest interceptions among every-week starters. He’s thrown just three picks all year, while Mahomes threw three this week alone against the Denver Broncos.
But the most important stat of all — and the one that puts Hurts’ MVP case over the top — is the Eagles’ 12-1 record. No other team in the NFL, including the Chiefs, has fewer than three loses. Philadelphia has been the best and most consistent team in the league all year, and Hurts is the main reason why.
Give the man his trophy.
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