Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills Are the NFL’s Best Bet to Win the Super Bowl

The beginning of a new NFL season brings hope, and along with it, the possibility of gobs of money. Preseason betting is always a major topic of conversation, regardless of the sport, but the NFL is king, so NFL gambling follows suit. Every year, there is a certain player or team that defies the odds — literally. As the final two teams left standing last year, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the best odds for another chance at a title. But Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are the best bet to win Super Bowl 56.

The Bills were a surprise participant in last year’s AFC Championship Game

Buffalo won the AFC East last year for the first time since 1995. For the first time since 2009, and for just the second time since 2003, somebody other than the New England Patriots won the division.

Allen led the Bills to a 13-3 record, which was tied for second-best in the NFL with the Green Bay Packers. Buffalo beat the Cleveland Browns in an AFC Wild Card Game and then the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round to advance to the AFC Championship Game. It was the franchise’s first trip back since Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, and Bruce Smith did it in 1993. Buffalo led Kansas City 9-0 after the first quarter at Arrowhead Stadium before Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs roared back to eventually reach Super Bowl 55 before losing to Tom Brady and the Bucs.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are the NFL’s best bet to win Super Bowl 56

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills gestures in the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs during the AFC Championship Game.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills gestures in the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs during the AFC Championship Game. | Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Tampa Bay and KC, naturally, have the best odds of winning the 2022 Super Bowl. Tampa is +650, while Kansas City comes in at 5-1. Buffalo has the third-best odds at 12-1.

Allen went from a developing quarterback in his second season to one of the best in the league last year. In fact, he ended the season second in MVP voting ahead of Mahomes. Allen threw for more than 4,500 yards and 37 touchdowns. He ran for 421 yards and 8 more TDs. He became a franchise quarterback and then got paid like one.

Most of Allen’s offense from last year returns intact. The team’s two leading rushers, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, are both back. Ditto for star wideout Stefon Diggs, who caught 127 passes from Allen for more than 1,500 yards in 2020. Slot threat Cole Beasley is also back, as is tight end Dawson Knox.

The Bills finished 16th in the NFL in terms of points allowed a season ago, but the team dealt with injuries to key players for a large chunk of the year. As head coach Sean McDermott’s defense got healthy, the team ripped off eight straight wins following its bye week and held opposing offenses to less than 20 points in four of its final six games. When fully healthy, Buffalo had the second-ranked defense in 2019.

The Bills’ odds are similar to those of the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers (14-1). Green Bay is 15-1.

Guess who had 12-1 odds last year? The eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.

Somehow, Buffalo is being underestimated heading into 2021


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Mahomes and the Chiefs will always be media darlings. Brady could play for another 50 years and still be the league’s most intriguing personality. But a team with the Bills’ resume — that is, the resume of a 13-3, division-winning, AFC-Championship Game participant — shouldn’t be left out of the title conversation.

As this year’s New York winter gets colder, things will get hot in Orchard Park, and Allen just may be lifting a trophy in the friendly warmth of LA come February.

All NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and odds courtesy of ESPN.

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