NFL Week 1 Odds, Predictions for Every Game: Cowboys Fall Flat Against Tom Brady’s Bucs, Titans on Upset Alert Against Giants
After a long summer filled with late-night baseball bets you couldn’t stay awake for, we’ve finally made it to the promised land. The NFL is back, baby, and we’ve got a full slate of games to bet on for the first time in nearly seven months.
So, let’s not waste any time, shall we? Let’s check out the betting odds for every Week 1 matchup and try to predict how every game will go.
NFL Week 1 odds and predictions for every game
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Bills -2.5
Total: 52.5
What a way to start the new season.
In a matchup between the reigning Super Bowl champions and the current Super Bowl favorites, I’ll give the edge to the Rams. According to Action Network, reigning champs are 14-7-1 against the spread in Week 1 the following season since 2000. You’re going to give me points with the best team in football from last year? At home? Please and thank you.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -6.5
Total: 44.5
Reigning Super Bowl champs have performed well in Week 1 the following season, but that hasn’t been the case for the Super Bowl losers. According to Action Network, teams in Cincinnati’s position have gone 4-18 ATS in Week 1 since 2000. Mitch Trubisky is a better quarterback than he gets credit for, and he’s surely good enough to cover the spread this week.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Total: 48.5
Eleven months ago, the Eagles went into Motown and dismantled the Lions by a final score of 44-6. Philadelphia is much better than it was a season ago, so this might be the most obvious “don’t overthink it” bet of the week.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Spread: Colts -7.5
Total: 45.5
The Colts have the potential to end up as a top-three seed in the AFC, but it’s going to take some time for Matt Ryan and this new-look offense to gel. Laying 7.5 points on the road against a feisty Texans team feels a bit too rich, so I’d lean Houston at this number.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Saints -5.5
Total: 42.5
I’m a big believer in the Saints this season. Don’t be surprised if this team makes a run at the No. 1 seed in the NFC by the time the playoffs roll around. On the opposite end, the Falcons have one of the worst rosters in the NFL this season. Atlanta is going to be on the wrong side of some embarrassing blowouts this year, and Week 1 feels like the first.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Total: 44.5
We don’t know yet whether Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco will start under center for the Jets in Week 1, so I’m not confident in picking a side either way. I do think the Ravens will be able to put up 24-30 points with a healthier roster, and New York has enough weapons with either quarterback to keep up. Give me the over.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Total: 46.5
The Dolphins had themselves a splashy offseason headlined by the addition of Tyreek Hill, but I don’t think that one move justifies a spread of more than a field goal here. If you’re going to give me 3.5 points in a matchup between Bill Belichick with a full offseason to prepare and first-time head coach Mike McDaniel, I’m taking Belichick every time.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers -1.5
Total: 41.5
There’s nothing better than a revenge game in the NFL, and we have a massive one this week with Baker Mayfield going up against his old team, the Cleveland Browns. Mayfield is going to want to run up the score in this one, and 1.5 points feel a bit light with Jacoby Brissett on the other side of the ball.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Spread: 49ers -6.5
Total: 41.5
Everyone is excited to see what Trey Lance can do in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He might be unstoppable, but it’s just as likely he struggles with Jimmy Garoppolo looking over his shoulders. I know the Bears are going to be brutal this season, but there’s no way I’m laying 6.5 points on the road with a QB making just his third start in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders
Spread: Commanders -2.5
Total: 43.5
There are a ton of marquee matchups in Week 1, but this isn’t one of them. In a game that features maybe the widest range of outcomes on the slate this week, the only way to play this one may be to take the Jaguars on the moneyline at plus odds.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -3.5
Total: 52.5
The last time we saw these two teams face off, we got 67 total points in what turned out to be an overtime thriller to end the 2021 regular season. With the Raiders upgrading on offense with Davante Adams, I don’t see how this matchup falls short of the 52.5-point total. I could see either team winning in the end, but the over has to be the play here.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -5.5
Total: 43.5
Here’s an interesting one. I’m down on the Titans this year after they lost A.J. Brown, and I think the Giants are primed for an improved season with a competent coaching staff finally in place. This is going to be my boldest upset pick of the week.
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 53.5
Points, points, and more points. The Chiefs-Cardinals matchup features the highest total on the board in Week 1, but it shouldn’t scare you away. This is going to be a track meet with two high-powered offenses and two equally low-powered defenses. This one’s getting to the 60s.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Pacers -1.5
Total: 47.5
Aaron Rodgers will eventually figure out how to maximize this Packers offense without Davante Adams, but it won’t happen in Week 1. The Vikings are my preseason pick to win the NFC North, so this is close to a must-win game if that’s going to transpire. Give me Minnesota on the ML.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Total: 50.5
The Cowboys no longer have an elite offensive line after losing three starters from last season’s squad, and that’s not good news when you have to go up against Vita Vea and Tampa Bay’s exceptional front seven. Tom Brady has heard the doubters loud and clear after his chaotic offseason, and he’s going to shut them up on Sunday night.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Broncos -6.5
Total: 44.5
I really want to find a reason to play the Seahawks in this spot, but I just can’t. Geno Smith simply isn’t going to be able to keep up with Russell Wilson, so I think laying the 6.5 points is the only way to go.
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 9/7.
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