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Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been an underdog very often in the NFL. In 79 career starts as the quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs, Mahomes has been an underdog in the betting market just eight times. His record against the spread in those game? Oh, just 7-0-1.

That’s right, Mahomes has never lost ATS in his NFL career as an underdog, and he’s 6-2 straight up in those games. Thankfully for us bettors, we get to ride the winning trend this week with the Chiefs set as 2.5-point dogs at home against the Buffalo Bills.

Patrick Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS as an underdog

Patrick Mahomes looks on during a game against the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs waits on the sidelines during a game against the Las Vegas Raiders | David Eulitt/Getty Images

Ever since Mahomes took over as Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have been arguably the best team in the NFL. In 79 career starts, Mahomes is 54-14 in the regular season and 8-3 in the playoffs. It’s rare to see a plus sign next to the Chiefs on the odds board, but when it does happen, you’d be foolish not to place a bet on them.

In the eight games in which Mahomes has been pegged as an underdog in the NFL, the Chiefs are 6-2 straight up and 7-0-1 against the spread. Mahomes has never lost against the spread when he’s disrespected by the oddsmakers, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

This trend started when Mahomes upset the Denver Broncos as a three-point underdog in his first-ever NFL start. Oddsmakers have gotten tired of losing to Mahomes, so we haven’t seen the Chiefs set as underdogs since September of 2020 against the Baltimore Ravens.

That changes this week.

Bet the Chiefs to cover +2.5 against the Bills in Week 6


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Here we go again. With the Bills set as 2.5-point favorites against the Chiefs this Sunday, Mahomes will officially make his ninth NFL start as an underdog. This time will be a bit different, though.

All eight of Mahomes’ previous games as an underdog came on the road. Sunday will mark the first time in Mahomes’ career that he will be a home underdog in Arrowhead Stadium.

I know the Bills have looked impressive to start the season, but how have we not learned our lesson already? Even if Buffalo is better than Kansas City this year, the Bills don’t deserve to be road favorites against Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Take the points with Mahomes and don’t think twice.

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