{"id":10054,"date":"2024-09-30T05:03:31","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T05:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=10054"},"modified":"2024-09-30T05:03:31","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T05:03:31","slug":"racing-tips-andrew-mounts-monday-picks-september-30th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/racing-tips-andrew-mounts-monday-picks-september-30th\/","title":{"rendered":"Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Monday Picks – September 30th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Andrew bids to get the new week off to a flyer with four stats-based selections at Down Royal, Hamilton, Wolverhampton and Newton Abbot on Monday, September 30th…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

DOWN ROYAL 2.05<\/h2>\n

TINO PAI (system \u2013 Sheila Lavery 2yos, six or more previous runs)<\/h3>\n

Sheila Lavery has a fine record with very experienced juveniles, defined as having six of more previous outings. Backing all 13 qualifiers would have found six winners for a profit of \u00a321.55 to a \u00a31 level stake. Those running in nursery company recorded form figures of 1190115 (4-7) and TINO PAI<\/strong>, a respectable sixth of 14 in a 5f Naas nursery last time on what was her sixth career start, is taken to get off the mark.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NEWTON ABBOT 3.10<\/h2>\n

SKYJACK HIJACK (system \u2013 hurdle winners, quick return in a handicap hurdle, speed adjusted)<\/h3>\n

Winning hurdlers have a solid record when bidding to follow up in a British handicap hurdle after a break of seven days or less, landing 377 of their 934 starts since 2012 for a profit of \u00a345.32. Those who were ranked first or second on last time out speed (according to Proform\u2019s ratings) were 227 from 486 (46.75) for a profit of \u00a375.21 (expected winners = 189.43, A\/E = 1.20). SKYJACK HIJACK<\/strong>, tipped in this column last week when scoring at Perth, can follow up.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

HAMILTON 4.10<\/h2>\n

MON NA SLIEVE (system \u2013 Kevin Ryan 3yos, first run after a wind operation, Class 5 or lower)<\/h3>\n

Kevin Ryan does well with three-year-olds on their first run back after a wind operation, especially in lower grade contests. Blindly backing all the qualifiers in Class 5 or lesser company would have found ten winners from 35 bets for a profit of \u00a339.63 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.21, A\/E = 2.38). MON NA SLIEVE<\/strong> has lost six in a row since scoring at York on his debut in May 2023 but the wind operation can help him return to winning ways.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00<\/h2>\n

BEAT THE CLOCK (system \u2013 Time Test, 1m+ on Tapeta)<\/h3>\n

Progeny of the sire Time Test have a 19 from 130 record (14.6%) when running over one mile or further on Tapeta and backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of \u00a3202.85 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP (expected winners = 12.42, A\/E = 1.53). BEAT THE CLOCK<\/strong> finished a neck back in third over 9.4f here in January on his only previous course outing and looks set to improve for the step up to 1m4f for the first time.<\/p>\n

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