{"id":10340,"date":"2024-09-30T19:10:56","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T19:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=10340"},"modified":"2024-09-30T19:10:56","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T19:10:56","slug":"racing-tips-andrew-mounts-tuesday-picks-october-1st","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/racing-tips-andrew-mounts-tuesday-picks-october-1st\/","title":{"rendered":"Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Tuesday Picks – October 1st"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Andrew heads to Bath, Ayr and Newcastle for his four stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 1st…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

BATH 1.30<\/h2>\n

GILBERT (system \u2013 Cityscape, soft or heavy going)<\/h3>\n

GILBERT<\/strong>\u2019s chance is far from obvious \u2013 Adam West\u2019s five-year-old finished last of 11 at Windsor on his latest start \u2013 but that was on good to firm going and today\u2019s heavy conditions could help the son of Cityscape to bounce back to some sort of form. His sire\u2019s progeny are nine from 45 on heavy ground (+\u00a323.95 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP) and he\u2019s placed in two of his last three starts on soft or heavy going.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

AYR 1.40<\/h2>\n

POWER OF GOLD (system \u2013 John & Sean Quinn, Ayr)<\/h3>\n

It was hard to make ground from off the pace at Ayr\u2019s Western meeting last month and that was certainly the case in the 1m Ayrshire Cancer Support Handicap when the winner (\u201cdisputed lead, led after 2f\u201d) and short-head runner-up (\u201cdisputed lead\u201d) were in the van throughout. POWER OF GOLD<\/strong>, sent off at 16-1, did well to finish fourth under a patient ride in that Class 5 contest and looks worth an each-way dabble today. The likely stronger pace in this apprentice handicap will suit and, since 2010, his stable is 45 from 261 at Ayr (17.2%) for a profit of \u00a341.91 (expected winners = 34.75, A\/E = 1.29).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NEWCASTLE 5.30<\/h2>\n

PONS AELIUS (system \u2013 Charlie Johnston, very small fields)<\/h3>\n

Charlie Johnston has had a difficult season, but the yard\u2019s fortunes have taken an upturn in recent weeks. There\u2019s an interesting stat regarding the yard\u2019s record in very small fields since Charlie took over the licence from his father and had we bet all his runners in fields of five or less we\u2019d have won 40 of our 146 bets (27.4%) and made a profit of \u00a339.11 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP (expected winners = 31.50, A\/E = 1.27). On the all-weather only the score is 17 from 51 (33%) for a profit of \u00a341.99. The yard\u2019s runners, often ridden prominently, seem better equipped to cope with small-field tactical affairs, so perhaps PONS AELIUS <\/strong>(4-1 third favourite at the time of writing) can get the better of his four rivals in this 2m contest.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NEWCASTLE 7.00<\/h2>\n

FORMBY (system \u2013 Mayson, first run since gelded)<\/h3>\n

Progeny of the sire Mayson have a good record on their first start following a gelding operation, landing 16 of their 84 starts (19.1% strike-rate) for a profit of \u00a324.54 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.88, A\/E = 1.62). The bulk of the profits came on the all-weather and Julie Camacho\u2019s FORMBY, gelded since a respectable 33-1 sixth of 13 in a 6f Southwell maiden last month, can get off the mark in the first-time hood.<\/p>\n

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