{"id":11186,"date":"2024-10-04T07:00:13","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T07:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=11186"},"modified":"2024-10-04T07:00:13","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T07:00:13","slug":"racing-tips-andrew-mounts-friday-picks-october-4th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/racing-tips-andrew-mounts-friday-picks-october-4th\/","title":{"rendered":"Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Friday Picks – October 4th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Andrew found well-backed winner THE KNIPHAND on Thursday and has four stats-based selections on Friday, October 4th…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

ASCOT 2.47<\/h2>\n

WONDERFUL EAGLE (system \u2013 Adlerflug)<\/h3>\n

Simply backing all progeny of the sire Adlerflug in Britain and Ireland would have found 20 winners from 111 bets (18% strike-rate) for a profit of \u00a333.33 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP. WONDERFUL EAGLE<\/strong> contributed with a good-ground win over hurdles at Newton Abbot last time, a win that made it two from two since wind surgery, and he won\u2019t be inconvenienced by the return to the Flat and slow going having won a 2m handicap at Goodwood on his penultimate start.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

FONTWELL 3.45<\/h2>\n

FEEL THE PINCH (system \u2013 small-field pattern)<\/h3>\n

FEEL THE PINCH<\/strong> could only finish tenth of 17 in the Class 2 Summer Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen last time but wouldn\u2019t have enjoyed the huge field. Robbie Llewellyn\u2019s ten-year-old now has form figures in fields of ten or more runners to 00690284566920 (0-14), as compared to 813141F13U311114421 (9-19) in single-digit line-ups for a profit of \u00a357.63 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP. His inexperienced conditional jockey will need to be aware of the track bias on soft ground here (the better ground is out wide) but he\u2019s worth risking at the price (11-2 best at the time of writing).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

FONTWELL 4.20<\/h2>\n

LORD CHESHIRE (system \u2013 Nigel Twiston-Davies, October)<\/h3>\n

As discussed prior to Kniphand\u2019s Southwell win yesterday \u2013 the first of a treble for the yard \u2013 Nigel Twiston-Davies has a cracking record in the month of October, scoring with 259 of the 1271 qualifiers (20.4%) in the 20-year-period prior to yesterday\u2019s racing (+\u00a3110.21 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP). LORD CHESHIRE<\/strong> trailed home last of seven at Kempton ion February on his latest outing but won easily on his reappearance last November and the soft ground will suit.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

FONTWELL 5.30<\/h2>\n

PRESENTING NELLY (system \u2013 Dan Skelton, first-time cheekpieces, finished 5th<\/sup> or worse on latest run)<\/h3>\n

Paul Nicholls has a good record when using first-time cheekpieces and it\u2019s the same story with his prot\u00e9g\u00e9 Dan Skelton. Like with the backing Nicholls\u2019 runners in this headgear, the value lies in siding with those who finished out of the frame on their latest start, finishing fifth or worse. Since Skelton took out a training licence his first-time cheekpieced runners who finished out of the frame last time out have a 21 from 105 record for a very healthy profit of \u00a356.25 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP (expected winners = 15.52, A\/E = 1.35). PRESENTING NELLY<\/strong> missed a good opportunity when Monday\u2019s Newton Abbot card was abandoned but can gain compensation here.<\/p>\n

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