{"id":12504,"date":"2024-10-11T07:24:14","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T07:24:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=12504"},"modified":"2024-10-11T07:24:14","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T07:24:14","slug":"racing-tips-andrew-mounts-friday-picks-october-11th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/racing-tips-andrew-mounts-friday-picks-october-11th\/","title":{"rendered":"Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Friday Picks – October 11th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Andrew found winners at 12-1 and 13-2 on Thursday and has four stats-based selections on Friday, October 11th…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

YORK 1.30<\/h2>\n

LOOK BACK SMILING (system \u2013 Fast Company, soft or heavy going, Flat)<\/h3>\n

Progeny of the sire Fast Company have a 151 from 1105 record (13.7% strike-rate) when racing on officially soft or heavy going on the Flat and backing them blind would have returned a tiny profit at SP (+\u00a30.65 to a \u00a31 level stake). That profit becomes \u00a3329.65 at Betfair SP (after 2% commission) and a nice profit would also have been secured by taking the best early price before racing. LOOK BACK SMILING<\/strong> finished a solid seventh in the Cambridgeshire last month and today\u2019s going (officially soft, heavy in places, looks ideal).<\/p>\n

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NEWMARKET 2.25<\/h2>\n

TROIA (system \u2013 Ed Walker, second-time out 2yos, won or ran within five lengths of the winner on debut)<\/h3>\n

Ed Walker does well with his second-time out juveniles and those who showed up well on debut, winning or running within five lengths of the winner, are 27 from 83 (32.5%) for a profit of \u00a332.65. This year, simply backing all of the yard\u2019s second time juvenile starters, regardless of where the finish on debut, would have found nine winners from 19 bets (+\u00a352.03). TROIA<\/strong> has missed a few engagements on account of soft going since her debut good-ground win at Newbury in July and the drying conditions will be to her liking in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NEWMARKET 3.00<\/h2>\n

POGO (system \u2013 Hills yard, Challenge Stakes)<\/h3>\n

Barry Hills had a good record in the Group 2 Challenge and his son Charles does too. Backing the Hills yard in this race since the year 2000 would have found six winners from 22 bets for a profit of \u00a358.75 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP. Five of the beaten horses finished second (14-1, 12-1, 10-1, 7-1 and 5-1) and another ran third (10-1). POGO<\/strong> won this race in 2022 and was second at 10-1 the year before, suggesting that the veteran might prove capable of running a big race from his stall 1 draw (possibly advantageous judged on recent evidence).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

YORK 3.10<\/h2>\n

AL HUSSAR (system \u2013 Grand Tuer, second run since gelded)<\/h3>\n

Grant Tuer has a good recent record with his runners having their second start after a gelding operation, scoring with seven of the 21 qualifiers since the beginning of 2021 for a profit of \u00a353.75. He\u2019s four from six with last time out winners in that period AL HUSSAR<\/strong>, a 16-1 winner in a Catterick nursery last time, might be able to defy a tricky high draw in this 5f nursery.<\/p>\n

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