{"id":16113,"date":"2024-10-31T18:53:01","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T18:53:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=16113"},"modified":"2024-10-31T18:53:01","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T18:53:01","slug":"new-manager-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/new-manager-bounce\/","title":{"rendered":"The New Manager Bounce: Debunking a Myth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>An uncharacteristically low tally of managerial sackings last season felt like a shift in psyche from Premier League clubs, who are all looking to cultivate long-term stability. Sportscasting examines what effect, if any, a &#8216;new manager bounce&#8217; can have.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Just three managers departed mid-season; this was down from 14 sackings in 2022\/23, which set a new record in the process.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last season\u2019s refreshing approach to the managerial merry-go-round was born out of a discernible lack of elite coaches available on the market, but hopes of a similarly quiet season have been dashed already.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/how-much-will-sacking-erik-ten-hag-cost-manchester-united\/\">Erik ten Hag\u2019s dismissal<\/a> after four defeats in nine games this term felt inevitable, even after lifting a second domestic trophy in as many years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This early-season layoff was &#8211; at first &#8211; met with jubilation from rival fans who proceeded to poke fun at Manchester United\u2019s perpetual frailty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, as the dust settles on a hectic week at Old Trafford, there is the old-age feeling of discomfort from neutrals who are fearing the implications of a \u2018new manager bounce.\u2019\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That is, a phenomenon whereby a team\u2019s performance may suddenly improve with the arrival of fresh ideas, fresh identity and a renewed sense of purpose.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Sporting Lisbon&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/ruben-amorim-managerial-record-manchester-united-manager\/\">Ruben Amorim<\/a> looks set to be named Ten Hag&#8217;s permanent successor, interim manager <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/manchester-united-next-five-fixtures\/\">Ruud van Nistelrooy<\/a> prepares for an almighty test in his first Premier League match in the hot seat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> With that in mind, Sportscasting launches a full scale review of the \u2018new manager bounce\u2019 phenomenon to see whether it has substance, or it\u2019s somewhat of a misnomer.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">\ud83d\udea8 Ruud van Nistelrooy: \u201cI\u2019m motivated to stay at Man United. I will go back to my assistant contract that I have here for this season and next\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI came as an assistant to help the club forward and I&#8217;m still motivated to do so in any capacity\u201d. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yj1mFAqoR8\">pic.twitter.com\/yj1mFAqoR8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FabrizioRomano\/status\/1852026274773975350?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><b>The \u2018New Manager Bounce\u2019 Meaning<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Axing managers is &#8211; by and large &#8211; the result of a simply untenable situation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unsettled dressing rooms are usually reflected by turbulent performances on the pitch; by that point, the only course of action left is to bring about a change of personnel in the dugout.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">History has often shown that to be a necessary decision, with incoming managers able to arrive as a transformative figure &#8211; a God-like divine presence sent from above to save a season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether this phenomenon is down to their managerial acumen, or simply the departure of a manager who had \u2018lost the dressing room\u2019 is a question that is often case-specific.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Either way, we have put the past three <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk?s=premier+league&amp;ct_bot_detector_event_token=d7cc7990eb64849b2240d19679b66c88dbc074239157fb8a2eeb24619fd7cbad\">Premier League<\/a> campaigns under the microscope to see just how common the \u2018new manager bounce\u2019 really is.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Is the \u2018New Manager Bounce\u2019 a Myth?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Across the last three Premier League seasons, there have been a total of 25 managerial arrivals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It must be noted that our research only took into account managers who had taken charge of five games or more, so caretaker and interim figures who stepped in for a handful of games have been excluded.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It also must be said that the minimum number of games in charge across the sample was six &#8211; for example the likes of Ryan Mason only took the reins at Tottenham for their final six games in 2022\/23.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile those who took over earlier in the season have been limited to a maximum of their first 10 games.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Overall Record For Mid-Season Managerial Appointments (2021-2023)<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">239 Total Games<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">WINS &#8211; 77\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DRAWS &#8211; 54\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LOSSES &#8211; 108<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">32.21% win rate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">45.18% loss rate<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From this set of results, it is clear to see that the arrival of a new manager doesn\u2019t necessarily translate to improvement.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A 32.21% win rate is certainly not to be sniffed at. However, the data is slightly muddied by the fact &#8211; more often than not &#8211; the teams who have been forced into a decision over their manager are struggling regardless, and as such a new man in the dugout can do little to change that fact.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of the managers measured, the most transformative figures in terms of points won were Unai Emery at Aston Villa (16 points in 2022\/23), Ralf Rangnick at Manchester United (19 points in 2021\/22) and Antonio Conte (21 points in 2021\/22).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These were all teams who had the necessary human capital and spending power to compete at a high level, they just needed a managerial change to kickstart a run of form.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the other end of the spectrum, the likes of Nathan Jones at Southampton (three points in 2022\/23) and Dean Smith at Leicester (eight points in 2021\/22) were doomed to fail with depleted squads and confidence at rock-bottom.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Mid-Season Appointments With the Best Records After 10 Games (2021-23)<\/b><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-table su-table-responsive su-table-alternate\"><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Manager<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Wins<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Draws<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Losses<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Points Won<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Antonio Conte &#8211; Tottenham (21\/22)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">6<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">21<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ralf Rangnick &#8211; Manchester United (21\/22)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">5<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">19<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Roy Hodgson &#8211; Crystal Palace (2022\/23)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">5<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">18<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Unai Emery &#8211; Aston Villa (2022\/23)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">5<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Steven Gerrard &#8211; Aston Villa (2021\/22)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">5<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">16<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Oliver Glasner &#8211; Crystal Palace (2023\/24)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">15<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Graham Potter &#8211; Chelsea (2022\/23)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">15<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Julen Lopetegui &#8211; Wolves (2022\/23)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sean Dyche &#8211; Everton (2022\/23)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">12<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><b>New Managers Have Won More Often Than Not in Their Opening Game<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While managers may not have maintained momentum for their first 10 games in charge, it is interesting to note that dugout debuts typically result in a win.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of the 25 managers measured across the last three seasons, 12 of them won their first game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A further seven managed to walk away with a point, while the remaining six fell to defeat. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When isolating opening results of a managerial reign, a \u2018bounce\u2019 in form has certainly been prevalent in recent years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A good omen for Manchester United fans against Chelsea perhaps?<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An uncharacteristically low tally of managerial sackings last season felt like a shift in psyche from Premier League clubs, who are all looking to cultivate long-term stability. Sportscasting examines what effect, if any, a &#8216;new manager bounce&#8217; can have. Just three managers departed mid-season; this was down from 14 sackings in 2022\/23, which set a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":313,"featured_media":15613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The New Manager Bounce: Debunking a Myth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As Manchester United prepare for life post-Erik ten Hag, we examine the effect, if any, of a &#039;new manager bounce&#039;.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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