{"id":16297,"date":"2025-10-30T11:20:46","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T11:20:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=16297"},"modified":"2025-11-03T16:00:37","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T16:00:37","slug":"melbourne-cup-trends-and-stats-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/melbourne-cup-trends-and-stats-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Melbourne Cup Trends 2025 &#8211; Which Horses Tick The Most Flemington Stats?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>With another big field in <em>&#8216;The Race That Stops The Nation&#8217;<\/em>, one way to help find the winner is by using the key Melbourne Cup trends and stats. With that in mind, we&#8217;ve listed these below &#8211; including 90% of the last 21 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher and 67% being placed in the top three last time out.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Melbourne Cup Trends and Stats For 2025 Flemington Race<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>See below the key<strong> Melbourne Cup trends<\/strong> that have built up over the last 21 runnings of the famous Flemington Park horse racing contest.<\/p>\n<p>You can use these horse racing stats to apply to the 2025 Melbourne Cup runners\u00a0to find the horses that best fit the profiles of past winners.<\/p>\n<p>With a lot of rain at Flemington too, these stats can also be used with our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/melbourne-cup-runners-2025-soft-ground-form\/\">Melbourne Cup runners<\/a> guide &#8211; highlighting the horses that have done best on soft ground before.<\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 21\/21 \u2013 Won Group class race before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 19\/21 \u2013 Winners from stall 5 or higher<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18\/21 \u2013 Won 8 or fewer races<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18\/21 \u2013 Ran within the last 4 weeks<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17\/21 \u2013 Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (4), Caulfield (5) or Moonee Valley (6) last time<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17\/21 \u2013 Winning distance \u2013 2 lengths or less<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16\/21 \u2013 Aged 5 or older<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/21 \u2013 Ran within the last 2 weeks<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/21 \u2013 Ran at Flemington Park before (8 won there)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14\/21 \u2013 Drawn in stall 9 or higher<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14\/21 \u2013Top 3 finish last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14\/21 \u2013 Won by a AUS-based horse<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 12\/21 \u2013 Aged 6 or older<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11\/21 \u2013 Priced 12\/1 or shorter in the betting<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11\/21 \u2013 Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10\/21 \u2013 Won by a 6 year-old<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9\/21 \u2013 Won over 1m7f or further before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9\/21 \u2013 Favourites placed<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6\/21 &#8211; Winners trained in Europe (2 Irish, 1 UK, 1 German, 2 France)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6\/21 \u2013 Won just once before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 5\/21 \u2013 Won last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 5\/21 \u2013 Ran in a previous Melbourne Cup<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 3\/21 \u2013 Favourites<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 3\/21 \u2013 English\/Irish winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/21 \u2013 French-trained winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6 European-trained winners since 2010<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6 of the last 11 winners carried 8-5 or less<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> All of the last 11 winners carried 9-1 or less<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 7 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 12-21<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4 of the last 5 winners carried between 8-10 and 9-1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 30\/1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Melbourne Cup 2025 Details and Date?<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc5Date: Tuesday 4th November 2025<br \/>\n<span class=\"JCzEY tNxQIb\"><span class=\"CSkcDe\">\u231aTime: 4:00am (GMT)<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc7Racecourse: Flemington (2m)<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcb0Winning Purse: <span class=\"NA6bn BxUVEf ILfuVd\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"hgKElc\">$4,500,000 AUS<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83d\udcfa TV: Sky Sports Racing<\/p>\n<p>Full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/2024-melbourne-cup-prize-money-breakdown\/\">Melbourne Cup prize money<\/a> breakdown for 2025 &#8211; plus what the jockey and trainer will win.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Just Three Winning Melbourne Cup Favourites In The Last 21 Runnings<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The horse that has been sent off as the Melbourne Cup favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK in recent years haven&#8217;t fared that well.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve seen just three winning market leaders of the Melbourne Cup in the last 21 renewals and none since Fiorente in 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Meaning the last ELEVEN Flemington favourites have all fallen by the wayside &#8211; including last year&#8217;s jolly Buckaroo, who could only manage 9th for trainer Chris Waller.<\/p>\n<p>This year&#8217;s Melbourne Cup market leader looks a shootout between the Joseph O&#8217;Brien-trained Al Riffa and Hal Yours &#8211; but a lot can change in the betting before the race on Tuesday 4th November.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>19 Of The Last 21 Melbourne Cup Winners Came From Stalls 5 Or Higher<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Despite being run over one of the longer trips on the flat (2m), the Melbourne Cup draw has played its part in finding the winner over the last 21 years.<\/p>\n<p>This is backed up with a massive 90% of the last 21 winners hailing from stalls 5 or higher &#8211; last year&#8217;s winner Knight&#8217;s Choice won from gate 5.<\/p>\n<p>One theory on this draw stat is that being drawn low (1-4) means horses are more likely to get boxed in with most of the field running to their right.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless, it&#8217;s still a very healthy Melbourne Cup trend that has built up over the years, so once the finally runners and the draw are out &#8211; this is certainly worth a look.<\/p>\n<p>While with seven of the last nine winners coming between stalls 12 and 21 &#8211; this is worth noting too.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Horses Drawn 12-21\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Buckaroo (12)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Middle Earth (13)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> River Of Stars (14)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Arapaho (15)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Land Legend (16)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Flatten The Curve (17)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Torranzino (18)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Al Riffa (19)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Goodie Two Shoes (20)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Royal Supremacy (21)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>67% Of The Last 21 Winners Ran In The Last Two Weeks and Finished In The Top Three<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Next up is to look for horses who raced in the last few weeks and that also finished in the top three last time out.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, it&#8217;s always wise to give the<em> &#8216;days last ran&#8217;<\/em> a bit to wiggle room as the race date can move by a few days each year &#8211; it&#8217;s always staged on the first Tuesday of November.<\/p>\n<p>18 of the last 21 winners ran in the last four weeks, while 15 of the last 21 had been in the track in the last two weeks.<\/p>\n<p>A top three finish in a recent run has paid out in 14 of the last 21 renewals too.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Six European Melbourne Cup Winners Since 2010<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Finally, even though this race is, of course, staged in Australia in more recent years the lucrative prize of $4,500,00 AUS has attracted many runners from all over the world &#8211; most notably Europe.<\/p>\n<p>These raiders have done well too &#8211; with six European-trained winners since 2010, which include two from Ireland and France, plus one each from the UK and Germany.<\/p>\n<p>The European winners since 2010 are &#8211; American, Dunaden, Protectionist, Rekindling, Cross Counter and Twilight Payment.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Melbourne Cup Winners (Last 10 Years)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2024 &#8211;<\/strong> KNIGHT&#8217;S CHOICE (90\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2023 &#8211; <\/strong>WITHOUT A FIGHT (7\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2022 &#8211;<\/strong> GOLD TRIP (20\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2021 \u2013<\/strong> VERRY ELLEEGANT (17\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2020 &#8211;<\/strong> TWILIGHT PAYMENT (25\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2019 \u2013 <\/strong>VOW AND DECLARE (10\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2018 \u2013 <\/strong>CROSS COUNTER (8\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2017 \u2013 <\/strong>REKINDLING (14\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2016 \u2013 <\/strong>ALMANDIN (10\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>2015 \u2013 <\/strong>PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100\/1)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>WATCH: Knight&#8217;s Choice Winning The 2024 Melbourne Cup<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><iframe title=\"Melbourne Cup 2024 Replay | 90\/1 shot Knight&#039;s Choice wins it in a photo finish under Robbie Dolan!\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/mv2qqvDqQ8k?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With another big field in &#8216;The Race That Stops The Nation&#8217;, one way to help find the winner is by using the key Melbourne Cup trends and stats. With that in mind, we&#8217;ve listed these below &#8211; including 90% of the last 21 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher and 67% being placed in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":68402,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Melbourne Cup Trends 2025 - Who Fits The Flemington Stats?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Melbourne Cup Trends 2025 - a look back at past winners of &#039;The Race That Stops a Nation&#039; to help find this year&#039;s Flemington Park winner.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16297\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Melbourne Cup Trends 2025 - Who Fits The Flemington Stats?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Melbourne Cup Trends 2025 - a look back at past winners of &#039;The Race That Stops a Nation&#039; to help find this year&#039;s Flemington Park winner.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/melbourne-cup-trends-and-stats-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Sportscasting UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/andy.newton.167\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-30T11:20:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-03T16:00:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/Melbourne-Cup-trends-.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"696\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"696\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andy Newton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@NewtsDailyLays\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andy Newton\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.sportscasting.com\\\/uk\\\/news\\\/melbourne-cup-trends-and-stats-2025\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.sportscasting.com\\\/uk\\\/news\\\/melbourne-cup-trends-and-stats-2025\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Andy Newton\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.sportscasting.com\\\/uk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c5e6a38461e1dc16887068ae5bec280e\"},\"headline\":\"Melbourne Cup Trends 2025 &#8211; 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With his long association with FromTheStables, Andy has also built up solid contacts with some of the best stables in the UK. Has written for GeeGeez and bookmakers Matchbook and BetBright in the past too, plus was the former sports betting editor of odds comparison site Easyodds and Juicestorm. Has also appeared on betting podcasts for MatchBook and has featured in the popular Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide in the past. Andy's also ghost written for former top jockey Richard Dunwoody and continues to have a monthly column in the Racing Ahead horse racing magazine. Now a regular on Sportscasting giving his views, trends and tips mainly on horse racing - if there's a stat to be explored and it's a sport, Andy is sure to find a betting angle to use. 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