{"id":31748,"date":"2025-01-22T16:08:54","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T16:08:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=31748"},"modified":"2025-01-23T17:12:19","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T17:12:19","slug":"cotswold-chase-trends-2025-cheltenham-trials-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/cotswold-chase-trends-2025-cheltenham-trials-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Cotswold Chase Trends Highlight ‘Must-See’ Favourites Stat For Cheltenham Trials Day"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Cotswold Chase trends ahead of Saturday’s big Cheltenham Trials Day race suggest punters might want to be wary of the favourite – with only two winning market leaders landing the prize since 2004.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chantry House and Santini The Only Cotswold Chase Winning Favourites Since 2004<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In more recent years the Cotswold Chase trends<\/strong> regarding the favourites has picked up slightly – but the return on the market leader is still only two from the last 21 renewals in this Cheltenham Trials Day<\/a> race.<\/p>\n

Two Nicky Henderson-trained horses in Chantry House, who could line-up again this Saturday at the age of 11, and Santini rewarded favourite backers in the Cotswold Chase in 2022 and 2020.<\/p>\n

However, with these being the only two winning market leaders, it’s been a race over the years that has been dubbed a ‘favourites graveyard’<\/em>.<\/p>\n

This means a ‘non-favourite’<\/em> has won the Cotswold Chase 90% of the last 21 runnings.<\/p>\n

Last Year’s Cotswold Chase Favourite Was Only Third<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This was backed up again in 2024, when the jolly Stay Away Fay could only manage third.<\/p>\n

While in 2023 the 5\/4 favourite with the best betting sites in the UK<\/a> Protektorat finished fourth.<\/p>\n

Bristol De Mai fell by the wayside in 2021, when the race was staged at Sandown, and also in 2018.<\/p>\n

While former Grand National winner Many Clouds saw off the red-hot 4\/9 market leader Thistlecrack in 2017.<\/p>\n

What does this tell us?<\/p>\n

Well in short, it’s a race that punters (for whatever reason) have struggled to get totally right.<\/p>\n

Yes, of course, many would have still backed the winner and at nice odds too with not many jollies winning.<\/p>\n

It also means the best backed horses haven’t delivered – which backs up that the Cotswold Chase has been tricky contest for horse racing<\/a> fans to nail.<\/p>\n

With all his in mind, this year’s Cotswold Chase favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK<\/a> – L’Homme Presse<\/strong> – will have this trend to overcome.<\/p>\n

But the good news is – L’Homme Press, who was third in the King George VI Chase over Christmas, won’t know what price in the market he is \ud83d\ude09.<\/p>\n

Cotswold Chase Trends and Stats \ud83d\udcc8 – The Last 21 Runnings<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In addition to the favourites related Cotswold Chase trend, SportsCasting’s Andy Newton<\/a> also has many more stats to take into the race.<\/p>\n

You can apply these to the final runners to find the best profiles based on past winners.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
    \n
  • <\/i> 21\/21 \u2013 Rated 151 or higher<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 20\/21 \u2013 Raced at Cheltenham over fences before (10 winners)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 19\/21 \u2013 Won over at least 3m before (fences)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 19\/21 \u2013 Ran in the last 8 weeks<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 17\/21 \u2013 Won between 2-6 times (fences)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 16\/21 \u2013 Returned 7\/1 or less<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 14\/21 \u2013 Went onto race in that season\u2019s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 13\/21 \u2013 Favourites placed<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 13\/21 \u2013 Raced at Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 11\/21 \u2013 Aged 9 or 10 years-old<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 10\/21 \u2013 Unplaced in last race<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 10\/21 \u2013 Won by an Irish-bred horse<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 8\/21 \u2013 Won most recent race<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 7\/21 \u2013 Winners from outside the top 3 in the market<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 7\/21 \u2013 Won by a French-bred horse<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 3\/21 \u2013 Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 2\/21 – Won by the Henderson yard (2 of the last 5)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 2\/21 \u2013 Winning Favourites<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 1\/21 \u2013 Irish-trained winners (2024)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 1\/21 \u2013 Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 1\/21 \u2013 Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> 10 of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 7\/1<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup<\/li>\n
  • <\/i> Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 3 times (1980, 2020, 2022)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    <\/div>\n

    Cotswold Chase 2025 Runners \ud83c\udfc7: L’Homme Presse Heads The Field<\/strong><\/h2>\n
    <\/p>\n
      \n
    • <\/i> Gentlemansgame (Mouse Morris)<\/li>\n
    • <\/i> Stage Star (Paul Nicholls)<\/li>\n
    • <\/i> Chantry House (Nicky Henderson)<\/li>\n
    • <\/i> Delta Work (Gordon Elliott)<\/li>\n
    • <\/i> L’Homme Presse (Venetia Williams)<\/li>\n
    • <\/i> Tommie Beau (Seamus Mullins)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      <\/div>\n

      Note: The final declarations will be out on Thursday 23rd Jan 2025<\/em><\/p>\n