{"id":42036,"date":"2025-03-29T08:55:41","date_gmt":"2025-03-29T08:55:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=42036"},"modified":"2025-03-29T08:56:22","modified_gmt":"2025-03-29T08:56:22","slug":"2025-lincoln-handicap-trends-doncaster-horse-racing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/2025-lincoln-handicap-trends-doncaster-horse-racing\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Lincoln Handicap Trends Point To Horses Aged 6 Or Younger, Carrying 9st 4lbs Or Less"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>As horse racing fans gear up for the start of the new flat turf season on Saturday &#8211; Andy Newton looks at the key 2025 Lincoln Handicap trends and stats &#8211; which can be used to whittle down the big field and help put history on your side.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>You can also see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/andy-newtons-trends-picks-for-doncaster-kempton-itv-racing\/\">Andy Newton&#8217;s 1-2-3 ITV Racing Saturday picks and more trends<\/a> for all the main races.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>2024 Lincoln Hero Mr Professor Bidding To Become Only The Third <em>&#8216;Back-to-Back&#8217;<\/em> Winner<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>12 months ago, jockey David Egan steered home the Dominic Ffrench Davis-trained <strong>Mr Professor<\/strong> to land the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster and he could be back for more in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The win was also big success for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/betting-sites\/horse-racing\/\">the best horse racing betting sites in the UK<\/a> as this 5 year-old returned a 33\/1 shot in the market &#8211; with the well-backed Irish-trained Chazzesmee out of the placings in fifth.<\/p>\n<p>However, Mr Professor failed to win another race that season &#8211; but in his defence was only seen three more times last term.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s also since moved yards and is now housed with the Raphael E Freire team in Newmarket, but the Lincoln Handicap trends suggest he&#8217;s got it all to do to repeat last year&#8217;s win.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, he&#8217;s only rated 4lbs higher than his success 12 months ago but it&#8217;s the fact this ultra-competitive turf season opener hasn&#8217;t been a good race for repeat winners.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>The Last Repeat Lincoln Winner Was In The 1950&#8217;s<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Since the Lincoln was first run back in 1853, there have only been two <em>&#8216;back-to-back&#8217;<\/em> winners of the race &#8211; with the most recent coming in 1957-58 with a horse called <strong>Babur<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>While the only other horse to do the double in consecutive seasons was <strong>Ob<\/strong> in 1906 and 1907.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>WATCH: Mr Professor Winning The 2024 Lincoln Handicap<\/strong><\/h3>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Mr Professor claims Lincoln glory! \ud83d\udc51<\/p>\n<p>It&#39;s joy for David Egan and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Domffd?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Domffd<\/a> in the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WilliamHill?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@WilliamHill<\/a> Lincoln Handicap at <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DoncasterRaces?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@DoncasterRaces<\/a>&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bAao6Ia6Uz\">pic.twitter.com\/bAao6Ia6Uz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; At The Races (@AtTheRaces) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AtTheRaces\/status\/1771565229823922368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 23, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Lincoln Handicap Trends 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 20\/21 \u2013 Aged 6 or younger<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 19\/21 \u2013 Carried 9-4 or less<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18\/21 \u2013 Won over at least 1m<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17\/21 \u2013 Won between 2-4 times<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16\/21 \u2013 Having their first run of the flat season<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/21 \u2013 Drawn in stall 9 or higher<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14\/21 \u2013 Favourites unplaced<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 13\/21 \u2013 Returned a double figure price in the betting<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11\/21 \u2013 Aged 4 years-old<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10\/21 \u2013 Came first or second in last race<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10\/21 \u2013 Officially rated between 95-100<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9\/21 \u2013 Ran at Doncaster<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8\/21 \u2013 Won last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8\/21 \u2013 Ran at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8\/21 \u2013 From the top 3 in the betting<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6\/21 \u2013 Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 5\/21 &#8211; Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4\/21 \u2013 Favourites (1 in the last 10 runnings)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 3\/21 \u2013 Trained by William Haggas (4 in total)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/21 \u2013 Trained by Charlie Appleby<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/21 \u2013 Trained by John Quinn<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/21 &#8211; Trained by John Gosden<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/21 \u2013 Trained by Richard Fahey<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/21 &#8211; Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 3)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/21 \u2013 Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 4)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 0\/21 &#8211; Irish-trained winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only two back-to-back winners (Ob, 1906\/07 &amp; Babur 1957\/58)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10 of the last 14 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 38 runnings<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 14.5\/1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>William Haggas Is The Joint-Most Successful Lincoln Handicap Trainer<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-42044 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"696\" height=\"518\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_-560x417.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_-350x260.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>If you like siding with trainers that do well in certain races &#8211; then when it comes to the Lincoln Handicap look no further than <strong>William Haggas.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Newmarket-based handler has fired in four Lincoln wins over the years and is the joint-winning stable in the history of the race.<\/p>\n<p>He shares the spoils with Jack Robinson, who sent out four winners between 1896 and 1910.<\/p>\n<p>The first Haggas Lincoln Handicap winner came back in 1992 with High Low, while his most recent was in 2018 with Addeybb, who went onto be a multiple Group One winner.<\/p>\n<p>William Haggas only has one possible 2025 Lincoln Handicap runner &#8211; <strong>Godwinson<\/strong>, who was runner-up in the Spring Cup at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance last season.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>William Haggas Lincoln Handicap Winners<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> High Low (1992)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Very Wise (2007)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Penitent (2010)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Addeybb (2018)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p>Other current yards to have won the race more than once in recent times are John Gosden, Richard Fahey, Charlie Appleby and John Quinn.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The Lincoln Handicap Trends Suggest Looking For Horses Carrying Between 9st and 9st 4lbs<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Next up for the 2025 Lincoln Handicap trends to look at the <strong>weight carried<\/strong> &#8211; being a handicap.<\/p>\n<p>The stats tell us that horses that have carried between 9st and 9st 4lbs have done best &#8211; winning 10 of the last 14 runnings (71%).<\/p>\n<p>While if you want a bigger return, then 19 of the last 21 winners (90%) won carrying 9st 4lbs or less.<\/p>\n<p>Last year&#8217;s winner Mr Professor ticked this stat again &#8211; crossing the line with just 8st 8lbs.<\/p>\n<p>Plus, every winner between 2015 and 2019 supported the 9st to 9st 4lbs stat.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The Last Irish-Trained Lincoln Winner Was In 1984<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>12 months ago, punters latched onto the James &#8216;Fozzy&#8217; Stack-trained Chazzesmee &#8211; backing the horse into 5\/2 favourite.<\/p>\n<p>But, as already mentioned, this<strong> Irish runner<\/strong> was only fifth and out of the frame.<\/p>\n<p>Now aged 7, the horse could be back again off only a pound higher rating &#8211; but the worry is we&#8217;ve not had an Irish-trained Lincoln winner since 1984.<\/p>\n<p>Okay, I&#8217;m not sure how many have tried &#8211; maybe not a lot.<\/p>\n<p>But it&#8217;s still worth noting that the last winner from the Emerald Isle was the Dermot Weld-trained Saving Mercy, who was ridden by <em>&#8216;The Choirboy&#8217;<\/em> Walter Swinburn.<\/p>\n<p>Recent Curragh winner Orandi, for trainer Tony Martin, is the only Irish runner in the race in 2025.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>95% Of The Last 21 Lincoln Handicap Winners Were Aged 6 or Younger<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The next Lincoln Handicap trend to look for is age.<\/p>\n<p>This is because this Doncaster race tends to got to horses <strong>aged 6 or younger<\/strong> (20 of the last 21).<\/p>\n<p>Yes, we saw a 7 year-old winner in 2023 (Migration), but he was the only winner aged older than 6 since 1998.<\/p>\n<p>We can also take this stat a bit further with 80% of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old &#8211; last year&#8217;s hero Mr Professor was aged 5.<\/p>\n<p>While between 2016 and 2021 EVERY winner of the Lincoln was aged 4.<\/p>\n<p>Those aged 7+ this year are &#8211; Beringer (10), Orandi (7), Fantastic Fox (7), Dual Identity (7) and Sean (8).<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Recent Lincoln Handicap Trends Point To Horses Drawn 9 Or Higher<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Finally, the<strong> Lincoln drawn<\/strong> has also played a role over the years.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, last year Mr Professor won from a low berth (2) and since 2010 we&#8217;ve actually seen five winners drawn 4 or lower.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, you can&#8217;t totally rule out those drawn low. Two of the last three winners were drawn 2 and 4.<\/p>\n<p>But just edging since 2015 are the horses drawn slightly higher &#8211; with 7 of the last 9 (78%) Lincoln Handicap winners drawn between 10-20.<\/p>\n<p>The most popular draws in the last 15 runnings have been 3, 10 and 12 &#8211; with two wins each and a 40% return if you coupled this trio up over this time period.<\/p>\n<p>Those drawn 1-8 this year are &#8211; Dual Identity (1), Orandi (2), Godwinson (3), Orne (4), Dashing Darcey (5), Beringer (6), Apiarist (7) and Whip Cracker (8).<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Lincoln Winners Draw (Last 15)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2024 &#8211; MR PROFESSOR &#8211; 2<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2023 &#8211; MIGRATION &#8211; 12<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 &#8211; JOHAN &#8211; 4<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 &#8211; HAQEEQY &#8211; 10<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 &#8211; No Race (Covid)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 &#8211; AUXERRE &#8211; 17<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2018 &#8211; ADDEYBB &#8211; 10<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 &#8211; BRAVERY &#8211; 20<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 &#8211; SECRET BRIEF &#8211; 22<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2015 &#8211; GABRIAL &#8211; 15<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2014 &#8211; OCEAN TEMPEST &#8211; 3<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2013 &#8211; LEVITATE &#8211; 3<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2012 &#8211; BRAE HILL &#8211; 12<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2011 &#8211; SWEET LIGHTNING &#8211; 16<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2010 &#8211; PENITENT &#8211; 1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2009 &#8211; EXPRESSO STAR &#8211; 9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Three Horses That Tick Most Of The Key Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>If we apply three of the key trends to the race &#8211; 19\/21 won with 9st 4lbs or less, 15\/21 were drawn 9 or higher and 20\/21 aged 6 or younger &#8211; these three horses have a lot going for them.<\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>NATIVE WARRIOR<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>ALPHA CRUCIS<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> <strong>OLD COCK<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Lincoln Handicap Race Details<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc5Date: Saturday 29th March 2025<br \/>\n<span class=\"JCzEY tNxQIb\"><span class=\"CSkcDe\">\u231aTime: 3:35pm <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc7Racecourse: Doncaster<br \/>\n\ud83d\udd04Trip: 1m<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcb7Winner: <span class=\"NA6bn BxUVEf ILfuVd\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"hgKElc\">\u00a377,310<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83d\udcfa TV: ITV4 \/ SkySports Racing<\/p>\n<p>See the full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/itv-racing-schedule-today\/\">ITV Racing<\/a> Saturday schedule here.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Lincoln Handicap Winners <em>(Last 10 Runnings)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2024 &#8211; MR PROFESSOR (33\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2023 &#8211; MIGRATION (18\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 &#8211; JOHAN (28\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 &#8211; HAQEEQY (9\/2)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 &#8211; No Race (Covid)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 &#8211; AUXERRE (5\/2 fav)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2018 &#8211; ADDEYBB (5\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 &#8211; BRAVERY (20\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 &#8211; SECRET BRIEF (12\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2015 &#8211; GABRIAL (12\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2014 &#8211; OCEAN TEMPEST (33\/1)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As horse racing fans gear up for the start of the new flat turf season on Saturday &#8211; Andy Newton looks at the key 2025 Lincoln Handicap trends and stats &#8211; which can be used to whittle down the big field and help put history on your side. You can also see Andy Newton&#8217;s 1-2-3 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":42038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2025 Lincoln Handicap Trends Point To Horses Aged 6 Or Younger<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We list the key 2025 Lincoln Handicap trends and stats ahead of the big Doncaster flat turf race on Saturday 29th March at 3:35pm.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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