{"id":42406,"date":"2025-04-04T15:20:04","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T15:20:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=42406"},"modified":"2025-04-04T15:22:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T15:22:00","slug":"can-grand-national-fancies-iroko-and-intense-raffles-defy-99-stat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/can-grand-national-fancies-iroko-and-intense-raffles-defy-99-stat\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Grand National Fancies Iroko and Intense Raffles Defy HUGE 99% Stat That Stretches Back Over 80 Years?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Heading into the 2025 Grand National, two of the big fancies &#8211; IROKO and INTENSE RAFFLES &#8211; are being tipped up by many punters to cement their name into the Aintree history books.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>However, if one of them is to be successful &#8211; they will need to overcome a monster <strong>99% Grand National stat<\/strong> that stretches back to 1941 &#8211; which is 83 years.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Only ONE Horse Aged 7 Has Won The Grand National Since 1941<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In 2022, the Emmet Mullins-trained <strong>Noble Yeats<\/strong> won the Grand National as a <strong>7 year-old<\/strong> &#8211; breaking a run with no winner that young since 1940.<\/p>\n<p>However, prior to that win &#8211; Grand National stat fans will tell you the last winner aged 7 was a horse called Bogskar in 1940.<\/p>\n<p>Meaning since 1941 there is an 83-year period with just ONE Grand National winner being aged 7.<\/p>\n<p>Over this time (1941 to 2024), with Covid, a void race and the Second World War &#8211; there have been 77 runnings of the National.<\/p>\n<p>Which, therefore, equates to a 99% strike-rate of winners aged 8 or older.<\/p>\n<p>Prior to <strong>Bogskar&#8217;s <\/strong>win in 1940 &#8211; for those wanting to dismiss this 7 year-old stat &#8211; there were actually three in-a-row winning between 1932 and 1934 &#8211; including the mighty Golden Miller.<\/p>\n<p>That said, the fact remains since 1940 &#8211; the <strong>Grand National has only produced TWO winning 7 year-olds.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Still fancy hot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/how-many-favourites-have-won-the-grand-national\/\">Grand National favourites<\/a> &#8211; Iroko and Intense Raffles?<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Grand National 7 Year-Old Winners Since 1940<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 1940 &#8211; BOGSTAR<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 &#8211; NOBLE YEATS<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Grand National Favourites Iroko and Intense Raffles Are BOTH Aged 7<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-42407 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/iroko-raffles.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"696\" height=\"312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/iroko-raffles.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/iroko-raffles-560x251.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/iroko-raffles-350x157.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So, if you are still coming down on <strong>Iroko <\/strong>and<strong> Intense Raffles<\/strong> as your 2025 Grand National fancies &#8211; you will certainly have to factor in this massive 99% stat that goes right back to 1941.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, some will ask how many actual 7 year-olds have run in the race since 1940?<\/p>\n<p>And to be honest, I&#8217;m not sure and I&#8217;m also not going to go back over 80+ years of results to find out.<\/p>\n<p>But what I have done is go back over the last 10 runnings and this will give us a fair picture.<\/p>\n<p>In total, there have been 26 horses aged 7 to have run in the Grand National since 2014 &#8211; with just one winner (4%).<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Grand National 7 Year-Olds To Have Run Since 2014 (26)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2024 (5) &#8211; Meetingofthewaters (7th), Limerick Lace (10th), The Goffer (13th), Nassalam (18th), Adamantly Chosen (21st)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2023 (6) &#8211; Gaillard Du Mesnil (3rd), A Wave Of The Sea (9th), Cape Gentleman (PU), Capodanno (22\/1), Velvet Elvis (PU), Mr Incredible (UR)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 (2) &#8211; Noble Yeats (1st), Coko Beach (8th)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 (2) &#8211; Farclas (5th), The Long Mile (PU)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 &#8211; No Race (Covid)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 (1) &#8211; Ramese De Teilee (PU)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2018 (1) &#8211; Baie Des Iles (12th)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 (3) &#8211; Le Mercurey (12th), Shantou Flyer (PU), Double Shuffle (PU)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 (2) &#8211; Vieux Lion Rouge (7th), Onenightinvienna (UR)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2015 (2) &#8211; Cause Of Causes (8th), Unioniste (F)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2014 (2) &#8211; Kruzhlinin (10th), Triolo D&#8217;Alene (PU)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Some Grand National Fans Are Suggesting The Race Is Now Easier &#8211; Giving Younger Horses A Better Chance<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In recent years, there have been many changes to the Grand National.<\/p>\n<p>Including less runners (34) now, but the most significant being the alternation of a lot of the fences.<\/p>\n<p>Which has led many to believe the once-gruelling test &#8211; is nowhere near as hard as it used to be.<\/p>\n<p>This will also point to the younger horses in the race having a better chance &#8211; with less emphasis on jumping, stamina and experience.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe this was why Noble Yeats defied the huge 7 year Grand National stat in 2022 &#8211; he&#8217;d also only seven times over fences before winning and had just the one previous chase success.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>7 Year-Old Gaillard Du Mesnil Came Close (3rd) In 2023<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>But since Noble Yeat&#8217;s win in 2022 &#8211; eleven more 7 year-old horses have tried in 2023 and 2024 &#8211; they&#8217;ve all come up short.<\/p>\n<p>With the Willie Mullins-trained Gaillard Du Mesnil doing best when taking the bronze in a few years back.<\/p>\n<p>Oh, and only last year in 2024 we saw another <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/how-many-times-has-jp-mcmanus-won-the-grand-national\/\">JP McManus<\/a>-owned 7 year-old in Limerick Lace ran.<\/p>\n<p>She was also sent off as the Grand National joint-favourite with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/betting-sites\/horse-racing\/\">the best horse racing betting sites in the UK<\/a> despite this huge stat &#8211; but only finished 10th.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Why Have 7 Year-olds Struggled In The Grand National?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_41308\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-41308\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-41308 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/grand-national-4.jpg\" alt=\"Noble Yeats: Last 7 Year-Old Grand National Winner (2022)\" width=\"696\" height=\"464\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/grand-national-4.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/grand-national-4-560x373.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/grand-national-4-350x233.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-41308\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Noble Yeats: Last 7 Year-Old Grand National Winner (2022)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In short, the Grand National is run over 4m 2 1\/2f and is still one of the most demanding horse races in the world &#8211; that also requires the winner to tackle 30 unique fences.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, they&#8217;ve been modified in recent years &#8211; but are still totally different to what a lot of these horses are used to jumping week-in-week-out.<\/p>\n<p>The race can also sometimes be run on testing (soft) ground &#8211; which means having proven stamina is a big plus and in general this staying power tends to come with age with National Hunt horses.<\/p>\n<p>There are also a maximum of 34 Grand National runners each year, so it&#8217;s a race that will require plenty of luck and experience to guide through any trouble or loose horses.<\/p>\n<p>Which is again something that comes with age and with more races run.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Intense Raffles Horse Profile<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Trainer: Thomas Gibney<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Age: 7<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Runs: 15<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Wins: 6<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Chase Runs: 9<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Chase Wins: 3<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Last Race: 2nd Bobbyjo Chase (Fairyhouse)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Career Prize Money: \u00a3335,802<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p>Intense Raffles is also a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/grey-horses-in-grand-national-2025\/\">Grand National grey horse<\/a> &#8211; he&#8217;ll be looking to become only the fourth &#8216;silver fox&#8217; winner of the Aintree race.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>WATCH: Intense Raffles Running Second In The Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><iframe title=\"Next stop Aintree! NICK ROCKETT enhances Grand National claims in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/OXvMGyeiG5E?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Iroko Horse Profile<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Trainer: Oliver Greenall &amp; Josh Guerriero<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Age: 7<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Runs: 15<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Wins: 4<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Chase Runs: 7<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Chase Wins: 1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Last Race: 2nd Premier Chase (Kelso)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Career Prize Money: \u00a3152,644<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h3><strong>WATCH: Iroko Running Second In The Premier Chase at Kelso<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><iframe title=\"GREY DAWNING dazzles at Kelso\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WPGZIRYOu8Y?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Other Possible 2025 Grand National Runners Aged 7<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Broadway Boy<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Fil Dor<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> King Turgeon<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> La Renommee<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Macdermott<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Spanish Harlem<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Stuzzikini<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h3><strong>WATCH: Noble Yeats In 2022 &#8211; The First Winning Grand National Horse Aged 7 Since 1940<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><iframe title=\"The WORLD&#039;s most famous horse race &amp; what a story! NOBLE YEATS wins the 2022 Grand National at 50\/1\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/haxJBs0ucCc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>What Has Been The Best Grand National-Winning Age In The Last 10 Runnings?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>So, we know that the Grand National has only produced two winning 7 year-olds since 1940 &#8211; what has been the best age?<\/p>\n<p>During 2010 and 2014 we had a good run for the old-timers &#8211; with all of these five winners aged in double-figures.<\/p>\n<p>However, since the 11 year-old Pineau De Re won in 2014 &#8211; <strong>ALL the Grand National winners have been aged between 7-9.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the <strong>8 and 9 year-0lds having the best records<\/strong> &#8211; winning 80% of the last 10 runnings.<\/p>\n<p>While 22 of the last 30 winners (73%) have been aged between 8-10 years-old.<\/p>\n<p>The oldest Grand National winner was Peter Simple aged 15 in 1853.<\/p>\n<p>The youngest winners were Alcibiade (1865), Regal (1876), Austerlitz (1877), Empress (1880) and Lutteur III (1909) &#8211; who were all aged 5.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>The Last 10 Grand National Winners and Their Ages<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2024 &#8211; I Am Maximus (8)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2023 &#8211; Corach Rambler (9)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 \u2013 Noble Yeats (7)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 &#8211; Minella Times (8)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 &#8211; <em>Cancelled (Covid)<\/em><\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 &#8211; Tiger Roll (9)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2018 &#8211; Tiger Roll (8)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 &#8211; One For Arthur (8)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 \u2013 Rule The World (9)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2015 &#8211; Many Clouds (8)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2014 &#8211; Pineau De Re (11)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Aintree Grand National 2025 Race Details<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc5Date: Saturday 5th April 2025<br \/>\n<span class=\"JCzEY tNxQIb\"><span class=\"CSkcDe\">\u231aTime: 4:00pm <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc7Racecourse: Aintree<br \/>\n\ud83d\udd04Trip: 4m 2 1\/2f<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcb7Winner: <span class=\"NA6bn BxUVEf ILfuVd\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"hgKElc\">\u00a3500,000<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83d\udcfa TV: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/itv-racing-schedule-today\/\">ITV Racing<\/a> \/ Racing TV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Heading into the 2025 Grand National, two of the big fancies &#8211; IROKO and INTENSE RAFFLES &#8211; are being tipped up by many punters to cement their name into the Aintree history books. However, if one of them is to be successful &#8211; they will need to overcome a monster 99% Grand National stat that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":42440,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can Grand National Fancies Iroko &amp; Intense Raffles Defy 99% Stat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There is a huge 99% Grand National stat that stretches back 83 years - that favourites Iroko &amp; Intense Raffles need to overcome.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42406\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Grand National Fancies Iroko &amp; Intense Raffles Defy 99% Stat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There is a huge 99% Grand National stat that stretches back 83 years - 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