{"id":43485,"date":"2025-04-03T11:17:32","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T11:17:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=43485"},"modified":"2025-04-03T11:18:41","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T11:18:41","slug":"andy-newtons-aintree-festival-trends-and-1-2-3-picks-for-day-one-thurs-3rd-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/andy-newtons-aintree-festival-trends-and-1-2-3-picks-for-day-one-thurs-3rd-april\/","title":{"rendered":"ANDY NEWTON&#8217;s Aintree Festival Trends and 1-2-3 Picks For Day One (Thurs 3rd April)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Sportscasting&#8217;s horse racing expert Andy Newton is on-hand this week with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The three-day meeting gets going on Thursday with SIX live races on the main ITV Racing channel &#8211; which include the <strong>Aintree Hurdle, Bowl Chase<\/strong> and also the <strong>Foxhunters&#8217; Chase<\/strong>, which is run over the Grand National course.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>AINTREE Festival Trends Day One: Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth Clash In Must-See Aintree Hurdle<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3>1:45pm \u2013 EBC Group Manifesto Novices\u2019 Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m4f ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47IMPAIRE ET PASSE<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48JANGO BAIE <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49GIDLEIGH PARK<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Arkle winner Jango Baie will be popular to follow-up, with the step up to 2m4f sure to suit. However, ALL of the last 15 winners of this didn&#8217;t win last time out.<\/p>\n<p>With that in mind, the Willie Mullins-trained <strong>IMPAIRE ET PASSE<\/strong> is interesting coming here fresher after missing the Cheltenham Festival and likes this meeting &#8211; having won the Aintree Hurdle here last term.<\/p>\n<p>Croke Park and Gidleigh Park are others to note, while the Paul Nicholls-trained Rubaud is overlooked with the yard 0-16 in the race.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> All of the last 15 winners DIDN&#8217;T win last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> No winning favourites in the last 10 runnings<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Paul Nicholls runners are 0-16<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11 of the last 15 winners ran in the Arkle Novices&#8217; Chase<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 13 of the last 15 came from the top 3 in the market<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The last two winners were Irish-trained<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"IMPAIRE ET PASSE survives stewards&#039; enquiry to land dramatic Aintree Hurdle\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/R0kda6xzTw0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>2.20pm \u2013 Boodles Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47PUTURHANDSTOGETHER<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48MAMBONUMBERFIVE<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49NATURALLY NIMBLE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s hard to know what to make of Dan Skelton runner Live Conti, who won on his UK debut at Wetherby at just 1\/9 &#8211; but the second has been well beaten since which gives the form some questions to answer.<\/p>\n<p>The Irish don&#8217;t have the best of longer-term records in the race but have won 3 of the last 10 and the Joseph O&#8217;Brien runner <strong>PUTURHANDSTOGETHER<\/strong> can improve on that. He was a top winner of the Fred Winter last time out at Cheltenham &#8211; winning by 6 lengths &#8211; and looks the sort to have more to come.<\/p>\n<p>The other O&#8217;Brien runner Naturally Nimble and Adonis Hurdle winner Mambonumberfive can do best of the rest.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17 of the last 21 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17 of the last 21 winners finished in the top 3 last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10 winning favourites in the last 21 runnings<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17 of the last 19 winners had won 2+ times over hurdles<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 3 of the last 23 Irish-trained<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"PUTURHANDSTOGETHER impresses for O&#039;Brien &amp; McManus in the Fred Winter\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/lboh7mKyljY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>2.55pm \u2013 Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47SPILLANE&#8217;S TOWER (n\/r)<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48STAGE STAR <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49GREY DAWNING<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>SPILLANE&#8217;S TOWER<\/strong><em> (n\/r)<\/em> gets the verdict here after bypassing Cheltenham to freshen up after his 5th in the King George VI Chase at Kempton over Christmas. He&#8217;s a horse that&#8217;s gone well fresh in the past and did well at this time of year last season &#8211; winning at Fairyhouse and the Punchestown Festival.<\/p>\n<p>While the form of his close second in the John Durkan Memorial Chase earlier this season reads well with Fact To File having since won the Ryanair Chase in facile fashion.<\/p>\n<p>Stage Star and Grey Dawning are others that missed the Festival at Cheltenham and will be popular &#8211; with Grey Dawning last seen beating one of the Grand National fancies Iroko at Kelso in early March. He was turned over as the 11\/10 favourite in the Manifesto Novices&#8217; Chase at the meeting last season (3rd).<\/p>\n<p>Stage Star showed signs he could be back to his best last time, when a close second to the useful L&#8217;Homme Presse in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham &#8211; he represents the Paul Nicholls yard, who have six wins in the race.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 19 of the last 21 winners didn&#8217;t win last time out (all of last 13)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 12 of the last 15 winners aged 9 or younger<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 7 of the last 9 favourites have won<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11 of the last 14 winners 7\/2 or shorter<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Paul Nicholls has 6 wins<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"FACT TO FILE strikes in stellar John Durkan! | Racing TV\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/izV6jMiDyYA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>3.30pm \u2013 William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47LOSSIEMOUTH<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48CONSTITUTION HILL <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49WODHOOH\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s the race that never was at the Cheltenham Festival when Lossiemouth&#8217;s connections opted for the Mares&#8217; Hurdle and after the carnage in the Champion Hurdle &#8211; many feel she would have won that race.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Constitution Hill fell that day and is, therefore, on a recovery mission &#8211; with that his first defeat from 10 runs over hurdles. He won this prize in 2023 too, so the longer trip is fine and is reportedly fine after his tumble.<\/p>\n<p>However, <strong>LOSSIEMOUTH<\/strong> will get 7lbs off Constitution Hill here and it was hard to not be impressed with how she won the Mares&#8217; Hurdle last time. The pair clashed in the Christmas Hurdle too this season &#8211; which Con Hill coming out on top, but Lossiemouth is better over further and even though this is her first run at Aintree she&#8217;s expected to relish it.<\/p>\n<p>Martin Pipe Hurdle winner Wodhooh, who looks a mare on the up, can do best of the rest.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17 of the last 21 winners priced 6\/1 or less<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 26 of the last 30 winners aged 6-8<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Nicky Henderson has won 6 of the last 13<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16 of the last 21 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Just 7 winning favourites in the last 21<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"LOSSIEMOUTH oozes class to land second Mares&#039; Hurdle\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/iY0-sYhjwpA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>4.05pm \u2013 Randox Foxhunters\u00b4 Open Hunters\u2019 Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47ANNAMIX<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48FAMOUS CLERMONT<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49MY DROGO<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Willitgoahead was third in the St James&#8217;s Place Foxhunters Chase at Cheltenham, but the worry is his age (7) and lack of experience having only had three runs over fences.<\/p>\n<p>So, the Willie Mullins-trained<strong> ANNAMIX<\/strong> looks the safer call, after running third in this race last year and was also third in the 2022 Topham Chase over these fences. He&#8217;ll have the help of Patrick Mullins too and the first-time cheekpieces are also on this 12 year-old.<\/p>\n<p>2023 winner Famous Clermont has to enter the mix too for jockey James King, who has a good record in the race. While if his jumping holds out the former Dan Skelton-trained My Drogo could easily out-class this lot with the experienced Will Biddick on his back.<\/p>\n<p>Of the rest, the useful Derek O&#8217;Connor also catches the eye riding Presentandcounting for former National-winning trainer Donald McCain.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Just 3 of the last 39 winners aged 8 or younger<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15 of the last 21 winners placed in the top 3 last time<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14 of the last 21 aged in double figures<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Jockey James King has won 2 of the last 7<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 12 of the last 19 had run over the National fences before<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h3>4.40pm \u2013 The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47SANS BRUIT <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48MY MATE MOZZIE <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49DR T J ECKLEBURG<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>12 months ago, the Paul Nicholls-trained <strong>SANS BRUIT<\/strong> landed this race by an easy 4 lengths and he&#8217;s back off the same mark. No Bryony Frost this time, but Harry Cobden takes over and despite not winning a race since this prize would have been the target again all season. He&#8217;s still only 7 years-old and gets in like last year with another featherweight (10-6).<\/p>\n<p>The consistent pairing of My Mate Mozzie, who was a fair 4th in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, and Dr T J Eckleburg with a lightweight look sure to make their presences felt too.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 19 of the last 21 winners aged 9 or younger<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 carried 11-1 or less (15 of the last 21, 10-13 or less)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10 of the last 21 ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Just 3 of the last 21 Irish-trained<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The top 5 in the betting are 18\/26 (69%) &#8211; but just 4\/21 winning favourites<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><strong>GOOD LUCK \ud83e\udd1e<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sportscasting&#8217;s horse racing expert Andy Newton is on-hand this week with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races. The three-day meeting gets going on Thursday with SIX live races on the main ITV Racing channel &#8211; which include the Aintree Hurdle, Bowl Chase and also the Foxhunters&#8217; Chase, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":19415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ANDY NEWTON&#039;s Aintree Festival Trends &amp; 1-2-3 Picks For Day 1<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sportscasting&#039;s horse racing expert Andy Newton gives you his key Aintree Festival trends &amp; 1-2-3 picks on day one (Thursday 3rd 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