{"id":43560,"date":"2025-04-03T18:40:13","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T18:40:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=43560"},"modified":"2025-04-04T07:31:07","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T07:31:07","slug":"andy-newtons-aintree-festival-trends-and-1-2-3-picks-for-day-two-fri-4th-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/andy-newtons-aintree-festival-trends-and-1-2-3-picks-for-day-two-fri-4th-april\/","title":{"rendered":"ANDY NEWTON&#8217;s Aintree Festival Trends and 1-2-3 Picks For Day Two (Fri 4th April)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Sportscasting&#8217;s horse racing expert Andy Newton continues with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races on DAY TWO.<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The three-day meeting will head into Friday with SIX more live races on the main ITV Racing channel &#8211; which include the <strong>Melling Chase, Top Novices&#8217; Hurdle<\/strong> and also the <strong>Topham Chase<\/strong>, which is run over the Grand National course.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\ud83c\udfa7WATCH\/LISTEN<\/strong> &#8211; You can also catch <strong>Andy Newton<\/strong> on this weekend&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=km48kDuLiio&amp;t=5s\"><strong>FINAL FURLONG podcast<\/strong><\/a> with TalkSport&#8217;s Emmet Kennedy &amp; Peter Michael &#8211; covering the best of the Aintree action on Saturday, including, of course, the <strong>Grand National.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>AINTREE Festival Trends Day Two: Can Jonbon Bounce Back In The Melling Chase?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3>1.45pm \u2013 Mildmay Novices\u00b4 Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47QUAI DE BOURBON <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48HANDSTANDS<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49CALDWELL POTTER<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Handstands is one of only three proven distance winners in the race and will be fresher than most having bypassed the Cheltenham Festival &#8211; he&#8217;s the obvious pick along with Caldwell Potter, who jumped his rivals ragged to win the Jack Richards Novices&#8217; Handicap Chase last time.<\/p>\n<p>However, the value call could be the Willie Mullins-trained<strong> QUAI DE BOURBON<\/strong>, who was still very much in touch until unseating Patrick Mullins in the Brown Advisory Novices&#8217; Chase four out (watch below).<\/p>\n<p>Prior to that he won at Gowran Park and don&#8217;t forget was a cracking third in the Martin Pipe at the Festival over hurdles last season.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> All of the last 21 ran within the last 55 days<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 aged 7 or younger<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 placed in the top 4 last time<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17 of the last 21 ran at the Cheltenham Festival<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only one winner 11\/1+ since 1989<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6 of the last 9 won by the favourite<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"Brown Advisory Novices&#039; Chase | Cheltenham 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KD9TPlPaK1Y?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>2.20pm \u2013 The William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47BE AWARE <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48IMPOSE TOI <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49LISTENTOYOURHEART<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Dan Skelton yard have won 2 of the last 3 runnings of this and <strong>BE AWARE<\/strong> looks to have a solid chance of adding to that. 8th in the Coral Cup last time at Cheltenham (watch below), but the flatter track and slight drop in trip will suit &#8211; plus is 4lbs better off with the runner-up Impose Toi here.<\/p>\n<p>Skelton also runs the mare Listentoyourheart, who gets the benefit of Harry Atkins&#8217; 7lb claim.<\/p>\n<p>Martin Pipe flop Kopek De Mee could easily bounce back &#8211; with that being his first run for 10 months, while with the Olly Murphy yard going well so their recent Wetherby scorer Wade Out has to be noted as well.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 of the last 11 carried 11-2 or less in weight (rated 133-137)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 of the last 11 returned 10\/1 or less and Irish bred<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9 of the last 11 aged 8 or younger<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> No outright winning favourite in the last 11<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Henderson (3 wins), Skelton (2 wins) and the Irish have won 7 of the last 9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle | Cheltenham 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/OGO1qa1oSd0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>2.55pm \u2013 TrustATrader Top Novices\u00b4 Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47TRIPOLI FLYER<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48ROMEO COOLIO<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49DIVA LUNA<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The form of the Gordon Elliott yard is a slight worry, but if running to the same level when third in the Supreme Novices&#8217; Hurdle last time &#8211; <strong>Romeo Coolio<\/strong> is the one to beat. He was only 7 1\/4 lengths off Kopek Des Bordes that day and that race was run 4 seconds quicker than the Champion Hurdle.<\/p>\n<p>However, he&#8217;s looking set to go off a short price and that coupled with having had a hard race last time and the form of the Elliott yard suggest he&#8217;s worth taking on.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TRIPOLI FLYER<\/strong> looks the obvious one to side with. He&#8217;s a horse on the up &#8211; winning his last three &#8211; and bypassed Cheltenham to come here fresh.<\/p>\n<p>He was also a fine 2nd in the G2 NH Flat race at this meeting last season, so we know the track suits and, unlike the Elliott yard, the Fergal O&#8217;Brien camp are in flying form. He&#8217;s got 8lbs to find with Romeo but looks the sort to have more in the locker to bridge that gap.<\/p>\n<p>Of the rest, last year&#8217;s Mares&#8217; NH Flat winner Diva Luna was a fine third in the Mares&#8217; Novices&#8217; Hurdle at the Festival last time and we know she also likes it here at Aintree and can get involved too.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Nicky Henderson has won 6 of the last 14<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Just 5 Irish winners since 1978 (but 4 of the last 5)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 7 winning favourites in last 21<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> JP McManus has won the last three<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 20 of the last 21 ran no more than 31 days ago<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 22 of the last 25 winners aged 5 or 6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"Michael O&#039;Sullivan Supreme Novices&#039; Hurdle | Cheltenham 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vu7kZ9LVctI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>3.30pm \u2013 My Pension Expert Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47JONBON <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48EL FABIOLO<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49PROTEKTORAT<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We can expect the front-running Matata to take them along at a fair lick &#8211; but in a poor renewal, this should be the perfect chance for <strong>JONBON<\/strong> to get back to winning ways after blundering away his chance in the Champion Chase last time.<\/p>\n<p>He still ran a remarkakle race to be second at the Festival and having won this race last year (watch below) we know Aintree is fine.<\/p>\n<p>El Fabiolo is actually the top-rated in the field (170) and a pound ahead of Jonbon, but this former Champion Chaser has lost his way a bit since his peak season in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Ryanair Chase fourth Protektorat was third last year and he looks set to be booked for another placed finish.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 ran in the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 ran in the last 30 days<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11 of the last 21 favourites have won<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16 of the last 21 didn&#8217;t win last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Jonbon won the race last year<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 25 of the last 33 won or placed at this meeting before<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"FULL RACE: Melling Chase distance proves just the ticket for Jonbon\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KdZ_lwLzDJk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>4:05pm &#8211; Randox Supports Prostate Cancer UK Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47BLUE LORD <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48EXCELLO<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49JAMES DU BERLAIS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>James Du Berlais was second in this race last year (watch below) and off just a pound higher is sure to be popular for the Willie Mullins yard, who have won two of the last five.<\/p>\n<p>However, Mullins and the Munir\/Souede boys also have <strong>BLUE LORD,<\/strong> who ran a fair third last time in the G1 Ascot Chase to suggest a return to form might be around the corner.<\/p>\n<p>This former G1 winner is down to a mark of just 152 (rated 167 at peak) and could be the type to love these National fences. Paul Townend riding is the added bonus.<\/p>\n<p>Of the rest, with five wins in the race, Nicky Henderson also does well &#8211; so his lightly-weighted Excello is chanced for a place with Nico de Boinville in the plate.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 raced in the last 34 days<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17 of the last 21 didn&#8217;t win their last race<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 12 of the last 20 had run over the GN fences before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Henderson (5 in total), Mullins and Tizzard have won 7 of the last 11<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> No winning favourite in the last 10 runnings<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"FULL RACE: Topham touchdown for Arizona Cardinal at Aintree | ITV Racing\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SAf0gKSJm38?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>4.40pm \u2013 Sefton Novices\u00b4 Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47BATTLE BORN LAD <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48CALIFET EN VOL<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49JACOB&#8217;S LADDER<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Lucinda Russell has won 2 of the last 4 and she&#8217;s got too big-priced runners here in Jupiter Des Mottes and King Of Answers.<\/p>\n<p>But another yard that does well here is Nicky Henderson and he&#8217;s got Holloway Queen and Califet En Vol, with the last-named preferred by Nico de Boinville. He was a nice winner at Huntingdon the last day over 2m 3 1\/2f but looked that day as if a step up in trip will suit &#8211; so today&#8217;s 3m 1\/2f can eke out more and will come here fresh from two months off.<\/p>\n<p>Of the rest, recent winners Mister Meggit, Jacob&#8217;s Ladder and Familiar Dreams are noted &#8211; but <strong>BATTLE BORN LAD<\/strong> could be the value after impressing winning both his starts over hurdles.<\/p>\n<p>One of which was a one length beating of the Jamie Snowden runner Wendigo, who has since franked the form running well in the Challow Hurdle and coming 5th in the Albert Bartlett Novices&#8217; Hurdle at Cheltenham.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 winners ran in the last 35 days<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15 of the last 21 winners aged 6 or younger<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Nicky Henderson has trained 3 of the last 10<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 2 of the last 21 Irish-trained<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15 of the last 17 aged 6 or 7<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Nicky Henderson and Lucinda Russell have won 5 of the last 10 between them<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><strong>GOOD LUCK \ud83e\udd1e<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sportscasting&#8217;s horse racing expert Andy Newton continues with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races on DAY TWO. The three-day meeting will head into Friday with SIX more live races on the main ITV Racing channel &#8211; which include the Melling Chase, Top Novices&#8217; Hurdle and also the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":38357,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ANDY NEWTON&#039;s Aintree Festival Trends &amp; 1-2-3 Picks For Day 2<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sportscasting&#039;s horse racing expert Andy Newton gives you his key Aintree Festival trends &amp; 1-2-3 picks on day two (Friday 4th April 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