{"id":44113,"date":"2025-04-05T08:10:23","date_gmt":"2025-04-05T08:10:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=44113"},"modified":"2025-04-05T09:11:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-05T09:11:13","slug":"andy-newtons-aintree-festival-trends-and-1-2-3-picks-for-day-three-sat-5th-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/andy-newtons-aintree-festival-trends-and-1-2-3-picks-for-day-three-sat-5th-april\/","title":{"rendered":"ANDY NEWTON&#8217;s Aintree Festival Trends and 1-2-3 Picks For Day Three (Sat 5th April)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Sportscasting&#8217;s horse racing expert Andy Newton continues with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races on DAY THREE.<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The three-day meeting concludes on Saturday with FIVE more live races on the main ITV Racing channel &#8211; which includes the <strong>Liverpool Hurdle <\/strong>and, of course, the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/grand-national-2025-runners-guide-and-5-star-ratings\/\"><strong> Grand National<\/strong><\/a> &#8211; where last year&#8217;s hero I Am Maximus is back for more.\u00a0<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\ud83c\udfa7WATCH\/LISTEN<\/strong> &#8211; You can also catch <strong>Andy Newton<\/strong> on this weekend&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=km48kDuLiio&amp;t=5s\"><strong>FINAL FURLONG podcast<\/strong><\/a> with TalkSport&#8217;s Emmet Kennedy &amp; Peter Michael &#8211; covering the best of the Aintree action on Saturday, including, of course, the <strong>Grand National.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>AINTREE Festival Trends Day Three: Who Will Be The Next Name On The Grand National Hall-of-Fame?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;\">1.20pm \u2013 William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m 1\/2f ITV <\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47ACT OF AUTHORITY <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48KAMSINAS<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49CATCH HIM DERRY<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Nicky Henderson-trained Jeriko Du Reponet (NR) will be popular after his close second in the Pertemps at Cheltenham &#8211; but is up 5lbs for that and did look to have quite a hard race. Catch Him Derry was third and gets a 3lbs pull with Jeriko &#8211; he represents the Dan Skelton yard, who have won the last two renewals.<\/p>\n<p>However, <strong>ACT OF AUTHORITY <\/strong> ran on well in the Martin Pipe to be second (watch below) and there could be more to come over this longer trip for the in-form Olly Murphy team. That day jockey Lewis Saunders couldn&#8217;t claim &#8211; but he can take off 7lbs today, which offsets (and a bit more) the 5lb rise in the ratings.<\/p>\n<p>Of the rest, course winner Kamsinas will be fresher having missed Cheltenham and looks overpriced.<\/p>\n<h4>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10 of the last 11 priced 11\/1 or shorter<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10 of the last 11 finished in the top 5 last time<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 of the last 11 ran in the last 6 weeks<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 7 of the last 11 didn&#8217;t win last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 7 of the last 11 rated between 131-138<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Trainer Dan Skelton has won the last two<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 1 Irish winner in the last 10<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"Race (7) 17:20 Cheltenham 14 Mar 2025 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys&#039; Handicap Hurdle\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/AMSoDL4CY7A?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;\">1.55pm \u2013 The Turners Mersey Novices\u00b4 Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47REGENT&#8217;S STROLL<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48KAPPA JY PYKE<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49HORACES PEARL<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With Lulamba now a non-runner, this has opened up the race.<\/p>\n<p>Koktail Divin won well at Leopardstown last time, but I&#8217;d query that form with it taking some knocks since.<\/p>\n<p>So the main pick is <strong>REGENT&#8217;S STROLL<\/strong> who has had his knockers but a confidence boost last time at Wincanton will help and despite losing in the Challow, the form of that 4th doesn&#8217;t look too bad now the winner The New Lion has won the Turners.<\/p>\n<p>Nicholls also sticks the first-time cheekpieces on and the yard have been having a decent meeting so far.<\/p>\n<p>Last year&#8217;s NH Flat race winner here Horaces Pearl can also go well for the in-form Fergal O&#8217;Brien yard, who have taken their time with him since. But he&#8217;s another 7 year-old.<\/p>\n<p>While the Willie Mullins runner Kappa Jy Pyke could be overpriced &#8211; having run well for a long way in the Turners at Cheltenham (6th), but prior to that was a nice winner at Punchestown. The flatter track and shorter trip will also help.<\/p>\n<h4>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 28 years<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 35 years<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 ran 39 days or less ago<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 aged 5 or 6<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Top 3 finish last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16 of the last 21 returned 5\/1 or less (11 of the last 14)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10 of the last 21 favourites have won (9 of the last 13)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Ran in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7), County (1) last time<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"JCB Triumph Hurdle | Cheltenham 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/VzTXUJB8E8E?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;\">2.30pm \u2013 William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47HAPPYGOLUCKY<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48CRUZ CONTROL<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49SAM BROWN<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ultima winner Myretown would have been popular to follow-up, but is now a non-runner.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve actually got three previous winners of the race back for more &#8211; Cruz Control won last year and he&#8217;s back just 3lbs higher. Sam Brown won in 2022 and was runner-up 12 months ago too, so this 13 year-old has to be considered despite his age.<\/p>\n<p>While the 2021 hero <strong>HAPPYGOLUCKY<\/strong> <strong>(e\/w)<\/strong> won this as a 7 year-old and is back aged 11. He was also a fine 4th in the Ultima to Myretown but would have been 16lbs better off had that horse been running and has only had two runs this season so might actually improve again, even though he&#8217;s 11.<\/p>\n<p>The other to note is Imperial Saint &#8211; he loves it here and is 3-3 at the track. But is 7lbs higher than his last Aintree win and is trying this longer trip for the first time.<\/p>\n<h4>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18 of the last 21 winners ran in the last 35 days<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16 of the last 21 didn&#8217;t win last time<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15 of the last 21 carried 11-1 or less<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15 of the last 21 aged 8+<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Just 1 Irish winner in the last 47 runnings<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Philip Hobbs has won 3 of the last 14<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Cruz Control, Happygolucky and Sam Brown are all previous winners<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"MYRETOWN makes all with dazzling Ultima success\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Y5OA5c662gk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong>3.05pm \u2013 Ivy Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47STRONG LEADER <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48TEAHUPOO <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49THE WALLPARK<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Stayers&#8217; Hurdle runner-up Teahupoo is the one to beat here &#8211; being the clear top-rated. But this will be his first run at Aintree and you feel he had a hard race last time out. The slightly quicker ground is probably not ideal either and so at the prices he&#8217;s little value. Will the track also suit? We&#8217;ll find out.<\/p>\n<p>While the form of the Elliott camp continues to be a worry &#8211; but they did have some winners at Wexford on Friday.<\/p>\n<p>Home By The Lee has been touted this season as a better horse, but he&#8217;s 0-6 outside of Ireland and I&#8217;m not sure what all the fuss about him is personally &#8211; plus he was pulled-up in this race back in 2023. No thanks.<\/p>\n<p>Mullins is having a top meeting so his Kitzbuhel will be a good option for many, having won well at Gowran Park last time over 2m. But this is a big leap up in trip and we&#8217;ve only seen four 5 year-olds winners ever. Oh, and strangely Mullins is still to win this race.<\/p>\n<p>So that leaves us with the Stayers&#8217; Hurdle third The Wallpark, who comes from the Gordon Elliott yard, who have won this race twice in the last three years &#8211; both times with Mark Walsh. He&#8217;s won six of his 13 starts over hurdles and looks the sort to have more to come at just 7.<\/p>\n<p>However, last year&#8217;s winner<strong> STRONG LEADER<\/strong> looks great value in a race he&#8217;d have been trained for all season.<\/p>\n<p>The Olly Murphy yard are going great guns too and he&#8217;s had the same prep as last year &#8211; when running in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day. His form here at Aintree is a solid 1-2-1 and will be a lot fresher than most.<\/p>\n<p>Of the rest, Gwennie May Boy is a CD winner and was a good winner of the Rendlesham at Haydock last time out. With Grand National hope Beauport 7 lengths back in second. He looks a tad over-priced too.<\/p>\n<h4>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Last 5 year-old winner in 1999 &#8211; only 4 ever<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Willie Mullins has never won the Liverpool Hurdle<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9 of the last 20 favourites have won<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16 of the last 20 winners aged 6-8<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 (both with Mark Walsh riding)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16 of the last 20 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Strong Leader won the race last year<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"STRONG LEADER claims Liverpool Hurdle glory\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/xV8_jvqH_MU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong>4.00pm \u2013 Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1\/2f ITV<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>\ud83e\udd47STUMPTOWN <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd48MINELLA COCOONER <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\ud83e\udd49MEETINGOFTHEWATERS<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are a stack of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/grand-national-trends-2025-aintree\/\"><strong>Grand National trends<\/strong><\/a> to look at ahead of the biggest race of the week &#8211; but the ones I&#8217;m focusing on will be age, weight, debut in the race and looking out for headgear.<\/p>\n<p>Last year&#8217;s Irish National winner Intense Raffles will be hoping to repeat what I Am Maximus did last year and win both races.<\/p>\n<p>But at the age of 7, this worries me with just two National winners aged 7 since 1940. Another of the big fancies Iroko is also aged 7, so he&#8217;s overlooked too.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of <strong>age<\/strong> &#8211; 8 0f the last 9 have been aged 8 or 9 (with 5 of the last nine winners aged 8). 14 of the last 16 winners were having their <strong>first run in the race<\/strong>, while the <strong>weight<\/strong> stat tells us horses carrying 11st 7lbs or more (top 5 on the card) might have it to do.<\/p>\n<p>The final bonus stat is that 5 of the last 7 winners wore a <strong>tongue-tie<\/strong> &#8211; with 6 of the last 7 having some sort of headgear. Only I Am Maximus since 2017 hasn&#8217;t worn any form of headhgear.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>With all this in mind&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The four I&#8217;m going to pin my hopes on are the recent Cross Country Chase winner &#8211; <strong>STUMPTOWN<\/strong>, who is in the form of his life, will stay the trip and loves these sort of fences. He&#8217;s taken to go well for Gold Cup winning trainer Gavin Cromwell.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MINELLA COCOONER<\/strong> is also interesting for the in-form Willie Mullins.<\/p>\n<p>He seems to love this time of the year &#8211; running third in the Irish National and winning the bet365 Gold Cup last season. He was a fine 4th in the BobbyJo last time behind Nick Rockett but gets a handy 6lb pull this time.<\/p>\n<p>The third pick is <strong>MEETINGOFTHEWATERS<\/strong>, who was a 7th last year at the age of 7. He was bang-there jumping the last but just faded around the elbow. He&#8217;s 7lb better off with I Am Maximus and rated a pound overall lower. Despite 14 of the last 16 winners having their first run in the race, that experience will help and he&#8217;s now the perfect age at 8.<\/p>\n<p>Three Card Brag gets in with a light weight, but the form of the Elliott yard is a worry.<\/p>\n<p>Of those at bigger prices, <strong>Monbeg Genius<\/strong> is interesting having got back to winning ways at Uttoxeter last time out &#8211; the Jonjo O&#8217;Neill yard won the National with Don&#8217;t Push It in 2010. Oh, he sports a tongue-tie too.<\/p>\n<p>While if lasting out Hitman might be overpriced, as could last year&#8217;s third and former Gold Cup winner Minella Indo.<\/p>\n<h4>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Key Aintree Festival Trends:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 5 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie (6 of the last 7 any headgear)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14 of the last 16 having their first run in the race<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 of the last 9 winners aged 8 or 9 years-old<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Just one winner with 11st 9lbs+ since 1975<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only 2 winning 7 year-olds since 1940<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 31 of the last 33 ran in the last 56 days<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Last two runnings won by the fav (or joint) &#8211; never been three in-a-row<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The last English-trained winner was Many Clouds in 2015<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><strong>GOOD LUCK \ud83e\udd1e<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sportscasting&#8217;s horse racing expert Andy Newton continues with his Aintree Festival trends and 1-2-3 picks for ALL of the LIVE ITV races on DAY THREE. The three-day meeting concludes on Saturday with FIVE more live races on the main ITV Racing channel &#8211; which includes the Liverpool Hurdle and, of course, the Grand National &#8211; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":17587,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ANDY NEWTON&#039;s Aintree Festival Trends &amp; 1-2-3 Picks For Day 3<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sportscasting&#039;s horse racing expert Andy Newton gives you his key Aintree Festival trends &amp; 1-2-3 picks on day three (Saturday 5th 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