{"id":48042,"date":"2025-05-04T08:24:20","date_gmt":"2025-05-04T08:24:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=48042"},"modified":"2025-05-04T08:25:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-04T08:25:00","slug":"1000-guineas-trends-2025-for-newmarket-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/1000-guineas-trends-2025-for-newmarket-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Does Hot 1000 Guineas Favourite Desert Flower Tick The Key Newmarket Trends?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>The market for the second English Classic of the season has been dominated by Godolphin&#8217;s Desert Flower &#8211; but does this exciting unbeaten 3 year-old filly tick the main 1000 Guineas 2025 trends and stats?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s find out &#8211; as after being handed stall 1, there might be a big reason to take on Desert Flower.<\/p>\n<h2>Only Four Winning 1000 Guineas Favourites In The Last 23<\/h2>\n<p>We get going with a big <strong>1000 Guineas trend<\/strong> that tells us this race can be prone to the odd big-priced winner.<\/p>\n<p>Last year we saw the Roger Varian-trained Elmalka cross the line at odds of 28\/1 with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.<\/p>\n<p>Plus, since 2018 we&#8217;ve also had 66\/1 winner Billesdon Brook, Cachet in 2022 at 16\/1 and Hermosa in 2019 at 14\/1.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, <strong>we&#8217;ve not had a winning 1000 Guineas favourite since 2016<\/strong> and only one in the last 14 renewals.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Minding The Last 1000 Guineas Winning Favourite<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Yes, you have to go back nine years to 2016 to find the last winning 1000 Guineas favourite &#8211; <strong>Minding<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>While since 2002 there have only been four &#8211; with Special Duty (2010), Natagora (2008) and Finsceal Beo (2007) as the three other winning jollies in the fillies Classic.<\/p>\n<p>All this means if you are against the red-hot favourite <strong>Desert Flower &#8211;<\/strong> this gives you something to cling to.<\/p>\n<p>Oh, and with 15 of the last 23 winners coming from outside the top 3 in the betting &#8211; this is more evidence that you should not be put off with a bigger-priced horse.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_48049\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-48049\" style=\"width: 560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-48049 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/Desert-Flower-560x315.jpg\" alt=\"Desert Flower 1000 Guineas Favourite\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/Desert-Flower-560x315.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/Desert-Flower-350x197.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/Desert-Flower.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-48049\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Desert Flower 1000 Guineas Favourite<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><strong>Trainer Aidan O&#8217;Brien Has Won The 1000 Guineas Seven Times<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Unlike the 2000 Guineas, top Irish trainer <strong>Aidan O&#8217;Brien<\/strong> ISN&#8217;T the leading handler in the 1000 Guineas &#8211; but he&#8217;s not far off it.<\/p>\n<p>With seven wins in the second English Classic of the season, O&#8217;Brien is closing in on the record haul of trainer Robert Robson &#8211; who won the race nine times in the 1800&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<p>Aidan O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s first win came with Virginia Waters in 2005 and this most recent in 2021 with Mother Earth &#8211; he&#8217;s won five of the last nine.<\/p>\n<p>This year O&#8217;Brien will pin his hopes on <strong>Lake Victoria<\/strong> &#8211; who is unbeaten from five and has already won three Group Ones.<\/p>\n<p>The latest being the Breeders&#8217; Cup Fillies Turf at Del Mar last November (watch below).<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"She is special! LAKE VICTORIA wins the 2024 Breeders&#039; Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf under Ryan Moore!\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jqWmEb5eTVw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Aidan O&#8217;Brien 1000 Guineas Winners<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2005 &#8211; Virginia Waters<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2012 &#8211; Homecoming Queen<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 &#8211; Minding<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 &#8211; Winter<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 &#8211; Hermosa<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 &#8211; Love<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 &#8211; Mother Earth<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"She is special! LAKE VICTORIA wins the 2024 Breeders&#039; Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf under Ryan Moore!\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jqWmEb5eTVw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>65% Of The Last 17 Winners Came Between Stalls 2-8<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The next 1000 Guineas trend to look out for is the <strong>draw<\/strong> &#8211; we&#8217;ll know this on Friday 2nd May.<\/p>\n<p>This is because 11 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 2-8.<\/p>\n<p>That said, a small word of caution here as the last two winners came from high draws in 17 and 16 &#8211; but 6 of the last 9 winners still ticked this 2-8 draw trend.<\/p>\n<p>Sticking with the 1000 Guineas stall stats &#8211; it&#8217;s also worth mentioning that draws 7 and 8 have decent records &#8211; winning 6 of the last 23.<\/p>\n<p>While, in contrast, those drawn in 1 have struggled of late &#8211; with just ONE placed horse from the lowest berth in the last 17 renewals.<\/p>\n<p>Desert Flower has been handed gate 1!<\/p>\n<h4><strong>1000 Guineas Runners Drawn Between 2-8<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Simmering (2)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Elwateen (3)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Hey Boo (4)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Chantilly Lace (5)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Duty First (6)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Lake Victoria (7)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Remaat (8)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>1,000 Guineas 2025 Betting Trends For Newmarket Race<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 21\/23 \u2013 Top 3 finish last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17\/23 \u2013 Won a Group race before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 16\/23 \u2013 Won between 2-3 times before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/23 \u2013 Still to win a race over a mile (or further)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/23 \u2013 From outside the top 3 in the betting<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/23 \u2013 Drawn between 2-13 (inc)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 13\/23 \u2013 Ran at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 13\/23 \u2013 Won last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 12\/23 \u2013 Returned a double-figure price<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11\/23 \u2013 Unplaced favourites<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10\/23 \u2013 Raced at Newmarket last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 10\/23 \u2013 Won on their seasonal reappearance<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9\/23 \u2013 Irish-trained winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9\/23 \u2013 Won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6\/23 \u2013 Drawn in stalls 7 or 8<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6\/23 \u2013 Past Group One winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4\/23 \u2013 Favourites<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4\/23 \u2013 Won by a US bred horse<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4\/23\u2013 Ridden by Ryan Moore<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 3\/23 \u2013 French-trained winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Only one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 11 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 13\/1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p>You can also see out <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/2000-guineas-2025-trends-for-newmarket-race\/\">2000 Guineas trends<\/a> and stats here.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>1,000 Guineas Trainer, Jockey and Owner Facts and Stats<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Aidan O\u2019Brien has trained 7 winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020), Mother Earth (2021)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Owner Shadwell have won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 &amp; 2009)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Godolphin have won the race 4 times (1998, 2002, 2011 &amp; 2023)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>91% Of The Last 23 Winners Finished In The Top 3 Last Time Out<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>A top three finish is pretty much essential when it comes to finding the 1000 Guineas winner &#8211; backed up with a massive 21 of the last 23 winners fitting the bill here.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, a large chunk of the 2025 1000 Guineas runners will head here with a top 3 run &#8211; but one of the fancied ones in Red Letter doesn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p>She was fourth last time out in the Moyglare Stud Stakes &#8211; beaten 1 1\/2 lengths behind Lake Victoria.<\/p>\n<p>Sticking with the recent form stats &#8211; the final mention is that last time out winners are 56% (13\/23) &#8211; which is a stat you can probably take either way.<\/p>\n<p>Every runner &#8211; baring Red Letter and Simmering finished in the top 3 last time out.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>70% Of The Last 23 Winners Had Won Between 2-3 Times Before<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Finally, with 16 of the last 23 winners having won between 2-3 times in the past &#8211; then this tells us the 1000 Guineas has been a race that has often favoured the slightly less exposed runners.<\/p>\n<p>The reason this stat could be significant is that the top two in the betting &#8211; <strong>Desert Flower <\/strong>and<strong> Lake Victoria<\/strong> &#8211; have both won more than three times.<\/p>\n<p>Desert Flower has won four times, while Lake Victoria has five successes to her name.<\/p>\n<p>So, yes &#8211; they both have by far the best form in the race &#8211; but are they vulnerable to a horse on the up, who is lesser exposed.<\/p>\n<p>The stats say it&#8217;s possible &#8211; so we&#8217;ll find out.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>1000 Guineas Race Details<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc5Date: Sunday 4th May 2025<br \/>\n<span class=\"JCzEY tNxQIb\"><span class=\"CSkcDe\">\u231aTime: 3:35pm <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc7Racecourse: Newmarket<br \/>\n\ud83d\udd04Trip: 1m<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcb7Winner: \u00a3311,025<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcfa TV: ITV\/RTV<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Recent 1000 Guineas Winners (Last 10)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2024 &#8211; Elmalka (28\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2023 &#8211; Mawj (9\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 &#8211; Cachet (16\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 &#8211; Mother Earth (10\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 &#8211; Love (4\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 \u2013 Hermosa (14\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2018 &#8211; Billesdon Brook (66\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 &#8211; Winter (9\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 \u2013 Minding (11\/10 fav)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2015 \u2013 Legatissimo (13\/2)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>WATCH: Elmalka Winning The 2024 1000 Guineas at Newmarket<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><iframe title=\"LAST TO FIRST! Elmalka wins the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at a huge 28\/1!\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/VG7_OmH8q2s?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The market for the second English Classic of the season has been dominated by Godolphin&#8217;s Desert Flower &#8211; but does this exciting unbeaten 3 year-old filly tick the main 1000 Guineas 2025 trends and stats? Let&#8217;s find out &#8211; as after being handed stall 1, there might be a big reason to take on Desert [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":48049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>1000 Guineas 2025 Trends To Find Newmarket Winner<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key horse racing 1000 Guineas 2025 trends to help find the best profiles based on past winners of Sunday&#039;s big Newmarket race.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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