{"id":51477,"date":"2025-06-05T20:06:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T20:06:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=51477"},"modified":"2025-06-05T21:25:12","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T21:25:12","slug":"epsom-oaks-trends-runners-stats-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/epsom-oaks-trends-runners-stats-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Does Epsom Oaks Favourite Desert Flower Fit The Key Trends and Does Her Pedigree Suggest She&#8217;ll Stay The Longer Trip?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>We&#8217;ve the third of the English Classics this Friday as the Epsom Oaks is the focus with some of the best 3 year-old fillies on show. It&#8217;s a race that&#8217;s been dominated by trainer Aidan O&#8217;Brien over the years, with 10 overall wins &#8211; but this year the <em>&#8216;boys in blue&#8217;<\/em> of Godolphin&#8217;s could upset the applecart with hot favourite Desert Flower.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With that in mind we look at Desert Flower&#8217;s chance in more detail and if she ticks the key Epsom Oaks trends and stats &#8211; as she puts her unbeaten record on the line.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>1000 Guineas Winner Desert Flower The One To Beat In 2025 Epsom Oaks<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The last 1000 Guineas winner to follow-up in the Epsom Oaks was Love in 2020 and before that it was Minding in 2016. Both were trained by Aidan O&#8217;Brien.<\/p>\n<p>However, this year O&#8217;Brien failed to land the English 1000 Guineas &#8211; instead the spoils went to Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, who won Classic with DESERT FLOWER.<\/p>\n<p>This was her fifth straight win (watch below) and also her second Group One win after landing the Fillies&#8217; Mile at Newmarket last October.<\/p>\n<p>She&#8217;s had 33 days to get over her Newmarket success &#8211; and now the attention turns to the Epsom Oaks on Friday and if she&#8217;ll cope with the step up from 1m to 1m4f and also be able to handle the tricky Epsom track and keep her unbeaten run going.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>WATCH: Desert Flower Winning The English 1000 Guineas<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><iframe title=\"ALL-THE-WAY Desert Flower is UNBEATABLE in the Betfred 1000 Guineas\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Irkxfd09nk0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Does Desert Flower Have The Pedigree To Stay 1m4f?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Moving up from one mile to 1m4f will mean a 50% trip increase for Desert Flower in the Oaks &#8211; so she, along with her supporters, will be stepping into the unknown.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, she certainly wasn&#8217;t stopping at the end of her 1000 Guineas win over a mile &#8211; but another four furlongs at a track like Epsom, with many undulations, will be a totally different test.<\/p>\n<p>With that in mind, let&#8217;s see what the Desert Flower pedigree tells us.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s sired by Night Of Thunder &#8211; who won the 2014 2000 Guineas over 1m and his only try beyond that trip came in the 2014 Coral-Eclipse over 1m2f.<\/p>\n<p>He trailed in 8th (of 9) that day &#8211; which suggests on Desert Flower&#8217;s sire side there are big stamina question marks.<\/p>\n<p>Then over to her dam &#8211; who is Promising Run, a US-bred mare, who raced 24 times (winning 6).<\/p>\n<p>However, all these wins came between 7f and 1m1f.<\/p>\n<p>She tried longer than 1m1f five times, including running in the 2016 British Champions Fillies&#8217; and Mares over 1m4f, and the best she managed saw third.<\/p>\n<p>There is a small glimmer of hope with her grand-sire (Night Of Thunder&#8217;s dad) being Dubawi, who was third in the 2005 Epsom Derby. But he was still beaten 8 lengths.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, breeding isn&#8217;t always right, and horses can certainly pave new ways with regards to staying longer trips than their predecessors &#8211; but overall, the Desert Flower pedigree does pose some questions.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>How Many Times Have Godolphin Won The Epsom Oaks?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Trainer Robert Robson is the leading Oaks trainer &#8211; having racked up 13 wins in the race between 1802 and 1825.<\/p>\n<p>While in more recent years it&#8217;s a race Aidan O&#8217;Brien and John Gosden have dominated &#8211; more on that below.<\/p>\n<p>But the Godolphin camp have only fired in three Epsom Oaks wins over the years. And none were trained by Charlie Appleby.<\/p>\n<p>The first came in 1994 with Balanchine and they added to that a year later in 1995 with Moonshell &#8211; both ridden by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/frankie-dettori-net-worth\/\">Frankie Dettori<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But it&#8217;s worth pointing out Balanchine first ran in the famous blue colours for the first time in the Irish Derby &#8211; her first race after the Oaks. She ran in the Maktoum Al Maktoum colours at Epsom<\/p>\n<p>However, their only other win in the Epsom Oaks came in 2002 with Kazzia. On a plus, just like Desert Flower will be trying to do, she also won the 1000 Guineas that season.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, Godolphin will be looking to end a 23-year run with no win in the Oaks.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Epsom Oaks Favourites Have A 26% Strike-Rate Since 2002<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>With Desert Flower set to go off as the 2025 Epsom Oaks favorite &#8211; we also look at the record of the market leader in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>Over the last 23 runnings of the race, the Epsom Oaks trends tell us that 61% of jollies were placed &#8211; with six winning.<\/p>\n<p>This equates to a fair 26% strike-rate since 2002 of winning Oaks favourites &#8211; but we&#8217;ve not seen one since 2020.<\/p>\n<p>With Love in 2020 the last winning Epsom Oaks favourite.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Epsom Oaks Betting Odds and Runners<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Desert Flower 7\/4<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Minnie Hauk 5\/1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Giselle 6\/1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Whirl 15\/2<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Elwateen 9\/1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Revoir 9\/1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Qilin Queen 20\/1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Wemightakedlongway 20\/1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Go Go Boots 50\/1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<p><em>Note: Odds are subject to change\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><strong>What Are The Main Epsom Oaks Trends That Desert Flower Ticks and Falls Down On?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The big plusses based on the 2025 Epsom Oaks trends for Desert Flower are having raced in the last five weeks (100%) and winning last time out (87%).<\/p>\n<p>26% of the last 23 winners also ran in the 1000 Guineas &#8211; which she did.<\/p>\n<p>However, 65% of winners since 2002 had also won before over 1m2f &#8211; Desert Flower hasn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p>While, as already mentioned, this has been a good race for Aidan O&#8217;Brien and John Gosden &#8211; but Desert Flower&#8217;s Charlie Appleby yard is still hunting their first success.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Epsom Oaks Trends and Stats \ud83d\udcc8<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 23\/23 \u2013 Raced in the last 5 weeks<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 20\/23 \u2013 Placed 1<sup>st<\/sup> or 2<sup>nd<\/sup> in last race<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 19\/23 \u2013 Stall 1 unplaced<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/23 \u2013 Won over at least 1m2f<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14\/23 \u2013 Won their last race<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 14\/23 \u2013 Placed favourites<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 9\/23 \u2013 Irish-trained winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8\/23 \u2013 Trained by Aidan O\u2019Brien<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6\/23 \u2013 Favourites (1 joint)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 6\/23 \u2013 Raced in the English 1,000 Guineas<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 5\/23 \u2013 A double-figure price<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4\/23 \u2013 Ridden by Ryan Moore<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4\/23 \u2013 Trained by John Gosden<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/23 \u2013 Trained by Ralph Beckett<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 1\/23 \u2013 Raced over 1m4f before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 0\/23 \u2013 Raced at the course before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 of the last 18 favourites were unplaced<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or lower<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Trainer Aidan O\u2019Brien has won the race 9 times<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 11 runnings<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> O\u2019Brien and Gosden have won 10 of the last 11 runnings between them<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 10\/1<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 8 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 8 of the last 23 runnings<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Trainers John Gosden and Aidan O&#8217;Brien Have Won 10 Of The Last 11 Epsom Oaks Between Them<\/strong><\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_51491\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-51491\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-51491 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/06\/Gosden-oBrien1.jpg\" alt=\"John Gosden and Aidan O'Brien Have A Top Record In The Epsom Oaks\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/06\/Gosden-oBrien1.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/06\/Gosden-oBrien1-560x315.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/06\/Gosden-oBrien1-350x197.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-51491\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Gosden and Aidan O&#8217;Brien Have A Top Record In The Epsom Oaks<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>If you simply want to back a horse in the Epsom Oaks who comes from a yard that know how to win the race &#8211; look no further than Aidan O&#8217;Brien and John Gosden.<\/p>\n<p>Heading into Epsom weekend &#8211; the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/aidan-obrien-epsom-derby-winners\/\">how many times has Aidan O&#8217;Brien won the Epsom Derby<\/a> question always comes out. With the answer, the same has how many Epsom Oaks winners he&#8217;s had &#8211; ten in both races.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, O&#8217;Brien needs just four more Oaks wins to be the winning-most trainer &#8211; with his first coming with Shantoush in 1998 and his most recent Tuesday in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Like the Ballydoyle man, John Gosden has done well in the Oaks in recent years &#8211; winning the prize four times since 2014.<\/p>\n<p>All this means that remarkably between them Gosden and O&#8217;Brien have won the Epsom Oaks in 10 of the last 11 years.<\/p>\n<p>Both have runners again in 2025<\/p>\n<h4><strong>John Gosden and O&#8217;Brien Epsom Oaks Runners\u00a0<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Minnie Hauk (O&#8217;Brien)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Giselle (O&#8217;Brien)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Whirl (O&#8217;Brien)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Go Go Boots (Gosden)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Epsom Oaks Race Time and Details 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc5Date: Saturday 6th June 2025<br \/>\n<span class=\"JCzEY tNxQIb\"><span class=\"CSkcDe\">\u231aTime: 3:30pm <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc7Racecourse: Epsom Downs<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcb7Winner: \u00a3850,650<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcfa TV: ITV\/RTV (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/itv-racing-schedule-today\/\">ITV Racing schedule<\/a>)<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Epsom Oaks Winners (Last 10 Years)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2024 &#8211; Ezeliya (13\/2)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2023 &#8211; Soul Sister (11\/4)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 &#8211; Tuesday (13\/2)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 &#8211; Snowfall (11\/2)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 \u2013 Love (11\/10 fav)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 \u2013 Anapurna (8\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2018 \u2013 Forever Together (7\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 &#8211; Enable (6\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 \u2013 Minding (10\/11 fav)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2015 \u2013 Qualify (50\/1)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>WATCH: Ezeliya Winning The 2024 Epsom Oaks\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><iframe title=\"EZELIYA dazzles to give Weld more Oaks glory 43 years on\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JTTe_e7wIpg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;ve the third of the English Classics this Friday as the Epsom Oaks is the focus with some of the best 3 year-old fillies on show. It&#8217;s a race that&#8217;s been dominated by trainer Aidan O&#8217;Brien over the years, with 10 overall wins &#8211; but this year the &#8216;boys in blue&#8217; of Godolphin&#8217;s could upset [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":48049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Does Desert Flower Tick The Epsom Oaks Trends?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ahead of the 2025 Epsom Oaks - does the hot favourite Desert Flower fit the trends &amp; does her pedigree suggest she&#039;ll stay the longer trip?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51477\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Does Desert Flower Tick The Epsom Oaks Trends?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ahead of the 2025 Epsom Oaks - 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