{"id":55201,"date":"2025-07-11T04:00:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-11T04:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=55201"},"modified":"2025-07-12T07:32:19","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T07:32:19","slug":"john-smiths-cup-trends-and-stats-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/john-smiths-cup-trends-and-stats-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"John Smith&#8217;s Cup Trends Highlight 83% Age Stat That Can&#8217;t Be Ignored For Big York Handicap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>You can use our John Smith&#8217;s Cup trends and stats to help put history on your side by finding the best horse profiles based on past winners of Saturday&#8217;s big York race.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Including a massive 83% age stat that should help whittle down the runners to a more manageable size, plus three trainers that have won 50% of the last 14 runnings between them.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The John Smith&#8217;s Cup Trends Tell Us 83% Of Winners Since 2002 Were Aged 4 or 5\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>With a maximum of 22 runners, then any pointers in trying to narrow down the field will help ahead of Saturday&#8217;s John Smith&#8217;s Cup.<\/p>\n<p>Which is where some of the key John Smith&#8217;s Cup trends come into force &#8211; especially a 83% age stat that has built up over the last 23 runnings.<\/p>\n<p>History tells us that a massive 19 of the last 23 winners were aged either 4 or 5.<\/p>\n<p>With only one winning 3 year-old (Wigmore Hall, 2010) and three horses aged 6 or 7.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the winning 7 year-old Educate (2016) was the only one since 1960.<\/p>\n<p>While, despite 3 year-olds not having the best of records &#8211; it&#8217;s worth pointing out in the last ten runnings there have only been TWO horses aged 3 to even run.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless, the stats still point towards horses aged 4 and 5 historically having the best return.<\/p>\n<h3>Who Are The 4 and 5 Year-Olds Running In The John Smith&#8217;s Cup This Year?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Thunder Run (4)<\/li>\n<li>Naqeeb (5)<\/li>\n<li>Hand Of God (4)<\/li>\n<li>Soldier&#8217;s Empire (4)<\/li>\n<li>Epictetus (5)<\/li>\n<li>Defiance (4)<\/li>\n<li>Silawi (5)<\/li>\n<li>Fox Legacy (4)<\/li>\n<li>Brioni (4)<\/li>\n<li>See That Storm (4)<\/li>\n<li>Have Secret (5)<\/li>\n<li>Liberty Coach (4)<\/li>\n<li>Romieu (4)<\/li>\n<li>Paddy The Squire (5)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Trainer William Haggas, Roger Varian and Andrew Balding Have Won 50% Of The Last 14 Runnings Between Them<\/strong><\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42044\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42044\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-42044 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_.jpg\" alt=\"William Haggas Has Won The John Smith's Cup 3 Times Since 2011\" width=\"696\" height=\"518\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_-560x417.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/William-Haggas.jpg1_-350x260.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42044\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">William Haggas Has Won The John Smith&#8217;s Cup 3 Times Since 2011<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>If you want to back a John Smith&#8217;s Cup based on the stables with the best records in the race &#8211; then look no further than William Haggas, Roger Varian and Andrew Balding.<\/p>\n<p>This trio of trainers have won a massive 50% of the last 14 runnings of the John Smith&#8217;s Cup between them.<\/p>\n<p>Haggas has fired three wins, with Varian and Balding two each.<\/p>\n<p>All three are set to have 2025 runners in the race too.<\/p>\n<p>With William Haggas having Archivist, Arabian Force and The King&#8217;s Falcon entered at this stage.<\/p>\n<p>While Andrew Balding is set to run Fox Legacy and Roger Varian Defiance &#8211; they are all well-fancied in the market with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/betting-sites\/horse-racing\/\">best horse racing betting sites in the UK<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Balding&#8217;s Two John Smith&#8217;s Cup Winners Were Owned By King Power Racing<\/strong><\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_55237\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-55237\" style=\"width: 560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-55237\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/king-power-560x315.jpg\" alt=\"King Power Racing\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/king-power-560x315.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/king-power-350x197.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/king-power.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-55237\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">King Power Racing Have A Good Record In The John Smith&#8217;s Cup<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>We&#8217;ve mentioned the good record trainer Andrew Balding has in the John Smith&#8217;s Cup, but it&#8217;s also interesting that the Kingsclere stables two wins came with King Power-owned horses.<\/p>\n<p>These were Johnny Drama in 2021 and Pivoine in 2019.<\/p>\n<p>What adds further interest, is the sole Balding 2025 runner in the race is also owned by King Power &#8211; FOX LEGACY.<\/p>\n<p>This 4 year-old also ticks the already mentioned key age John Smith&#8217;s Cup trend and was far from disgraced last time when 6th in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last time out.<\/p>\n<p>He was only beaten 3 3\/4 lengths that day by the improving My Cloud and having won over 1m1f earlier this season will appreciate the longer 1m 2 1\/2f trip.<\/p>\n<p>Balding and jockey PJ McDonald also teamed up to win the big handicap at Haydock last weekend &#8211; the Old Newton Cup, so will be looking for more Saturday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/itv-racing-schedule-today\/\">ITV Racing<\/a> success here.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>WATCH: Fox Legacy Running Sixth In The Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><iframe title=\"MY CLOUD wins the Royal Hunt Cup\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/L-MXVKsBHUA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>John Smith&#8217;s Cup Trends To Help Find Big York Winner<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>21\/23 \u2013 Won over 1m1f or further before<\/li>\n<li>21\/23 \u2013 20\/1 or shorter in the betting<\/li>\n<li>19\/23 \u2013 Aged 5 or younger<\/li>\n<li>15\/23 \u2013 Priced 14\/1 or shorter in the betting<\/li>\n<li>14\/23 \u2013 From stall 9 or higher<\/li>\n<li>14\/23 \u2013 Carried 9-3 or less in weight<\/li>\n<li>14\/23 \u2013 Had between 3-5 previous runs that season<\/li>\n<li>13\/23 \u2013 Aged 4 years-old<\/li>\n<li>13\/23 \u2013 Officially rated between 99-105<\/li>\n<li>13\/23 \u2013 Top 4 finish last time<\/li>\n<li>10\/23 \u2013 Raced at York before<\/li>\n<li>6\/23 \u2013 Raced at Royal Ascot last time out<\/li>\n<li>3\/23 \u2013 Won by Richard Fahey<\/li>\n<li>3\/23 \u2013 Trained by William Haggas<\/li>\n<li>3\/23 \u2013 Favourites (2 joint)<\/li>\n<li>2\/23 &#8211; Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 6)<\/li>\n<li>2\/23 &#8211; Trained by Roger Varian<\/li>\n<li>Just one winner older than 6 since 1960<\/li>\n<li>50% of the last 14 winners trained by Varian (2), Haggas (3), Balding (2)<\/li>\n<li>Only one 3 year-old winner since 2002 (2010, Wigmore Hall)<\/li>\n<li>11 of the last 14 winners aged 4 or 5<\/li>\n<li>2 of the last 6 winner owned by King Power<\/li>\n<li>8 of the last 11 winners carried 9st 3lbs or more<\/li>\n<li>The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 12\/1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><strong>John Smith&#8217;s Cup 2025 Race Details\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc5Date: Saturday 12th July 2025<br \/>\n<span class=\"JCzEY tNxQIb\"><span class=\"CSkcDe\">\u231aTime: 3:10pm<br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc3Trip: 1m 2 1\/2f<br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc6Grade: Handicap<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc7Racecourse: York<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcb7Winner: \u00a3103,080<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcfa TV: RacingTV \/ ITV Racing<\/p>\n<h3><strong>John Smith&#8217;s Cup<\/strong> Winners <em>(Last 10 Years)<\/em><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>2024 &#8211; Enfjaar (15\/2)<\/li>\n<li>2023 &#8211; Pride Of America (18\/1)<\/li>\n<li>2022 &#8211; Anmaat (5\/1 jfav)<\/li>\n<li>2021 \u2013 Johnny Drama (22\/1)<\/li>\n<li><em>2020 \u2013 <\/em>Sinjaari (11\/1)<\/li>\n<li><em>2019 \u2013 <\/em>Pivoine (14\/1)<\/li>\n<li><em>2018 \u2013 <\/em>Euchen Glen (20\/1)<\/li>\n<li><em>2017 \u2013 <\/em>Ballet Concerto (8\/1)<\/li>\n<li><em>2016 \u2013 <\/em>Educate (18\/1)<\/li>\n<li><em>2015 \u2013 <\/em>Master Carpenter (14\/1)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>WATCH: Enjifaar Winning The 2024 John Smith&#8217;s Cup\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><iframe title=\"ENFJAAR \/ 3 Race York 13 Jul 2024\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/rojtywmedaw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You can use our John Smith&#8217;s Cup trends and stats to help put history on your side by finding the best horse profiles based on past winners of Saturday&#8217;s big York race. Including a massive 83% age stat that should help whittle down the runners to a more manageable size, plus three trainers that have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":55238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>John Smith&#039;s Cup Trends Show 83% Age Stat For York Handicap<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Use our John Smith&#039;s Cup trends and stats to help whittle down the final York runners ahead of the big Saturday handicap (3:10pm)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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With his long association with FromTheStables, Andy has also built up solid contacts with some of the best stables in the UK. Has written for GeeGeez and bookmakers Matchbook and BetBright in the past too, plus was the former sports betting editor of odds comparison site Easyodds and Juicestorm. Has also appeared on betting podcasts for MatchBook and has featured in the popular Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide in the past. Andy's also ghost written for former top jockey Richard Dunwoody and continues to have a monthly column in the Racing Ahead horse racing magazine. Now a regular on Sportscasting giving his views, trends and tips mainly on horse racing - if there's a stat to be explored and it's a sport, Andy is sure to find a betting angle to use. 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