{"id":6754,"date":"2024-09-13T08:19:07","date_gmt":"2024-09-13T08:19:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=6754"},"modified":"2024-09-13T08:19:07","modified_gmt":"2024-09-13T08:19:07","slug":"racing-tips-andrew-mounts-friday-picks-september-13th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/racing-tips-andrew-mounts-friday-picks-september-13th\/","title":{"rendered":"Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Friday Picks – September 13th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Andrew was among the winners on Thursday and has four stats-based picks at Doncaster, Chester and Salisbury on\u00a0 Friday, September 13th…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

DONCASTER 1.50<\/h2>\n

DREAM HARDER (system \u2013 Jamie Spencer, Doncaster, fourth or worse last time out)<\/h3>\n

Jamie Spencer has a good record when riding at Doncaster, scoring on 72 of his 404 mounts (17.6% strike-rate) for a profit of \u00a342.80 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP. The value often lies with those who finished fourth or worse last time out, with 41 of the 192 qualifiers scoring (16.2%) for a profit of \u00a383.58 (prior to Grey Cuban\u2019s 10-1 win yesterday). DREAM HARDER<\/strong> will appreciate the rain that fell during racing on Thursday and can reward each-way support.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CHESTER 2.45<\/h2>\n

SIR GEOFF MORGAN (system \u2013 Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes, not debut)<\/h3>\n

Tom Dascombe has a solid record in restricted novice company, especially with his runners who had the benefit of previous experience. He\u2019s scored with ten of the 33 qualifiers (30.3% strike-rate) for a profit of \u00a328.64 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.29, A\/E = 2.33). At Chester only his form figures are 115126 (3-6) for a profit of \u00a310.66 and SIR GEOFF MORGAN<\/strong> can keep the ball rolling. For information, MA FILLE also qualifies on this system in the 2.10 at Chester.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

SALISBURY 3.15<\/h2>\n

ORCHARD (system \u2013 Warren Greatrex Flat runners, second career start)<\/h3>\n

At the time of writing ORCHARD<\/strong> was a best-priced 100-1 for this 1m restricted novice company, which is understandable given his debut effort at Newbury last month where he finished a 28-1 last of 13. However, he was very green that day and Warren Greatrex-trained Flat horses usually take a big step forward from their debut efforts. Backing the ten previous qualifiers at the second time of asking would have found two winners (28-1 and 15-8) as well as three seconds (28-1, 17-2 and 7-2), a third (40-1) and a fourth (20-1), suggesting that Orchard has frame claims despite his heavy defeat on debut.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

SALISBURY 6.35<\/h2>\n

TIRIAC (system \u2013 Jack Channon, autumn handicaps, Class 4 or better)<\/h3>\n

The Channon yard has traditionally done well in handicaps on the Flat (turf or all-weather) in the autumn months (September to November), especially in the better races (Class 4 or above). Since 2014, they\u2019ve won with 43 of the 306 qualifiers (14.1%) for a profit of \u00a3104.98 to a \u00a31 level stake at SP (expected winners = 28.61, A\/E = 1.50). TIRIAC<\/strong> will appreciate the recent rain and the crop from Class 2 to Class 4 level will help after his disappointing effort at Goodwood last month.<\/p>\n

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