{"id":69500,"date":"2025-11-12T19:05:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T19:05:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=69500"},"modified":"2025-11-12T19:05:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T19:05:18","slug":"liverpool-should-be-performing-even-worse-according-to-xg-premier-league-table","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/liverpool-should-be-performing-even-worse-according-to-xg-premier-league-table\/","title":{"rendered":"Liverpool Should Be Performing Even Worse According to xG Premier League Table"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>The xG Premier League table shows that Liverpool are actually underperforming even more than their results suggest so far this season.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s been a torrid start to their title defence for Liverpool in 2025-26.<\/p>\n<p>The Premier League champions have fallen off a cliff in terms of results in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Arne Slot&#8217;s side won their first seven in all competitions after their Community Shield loss to Crystal Palace on penalties.<\/p>\n<p>But they have since lost seven of the last nine, and were thumped 3-0 at Manchester City on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, they have slipped from the top of the Premier League, all the way to eighth place.<\/p>\n<p>The stats show that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/liverpool-title-race-premier-league\/\"><strong>Liverpool&#8217;s attempt to retain the title is already over<\/strong><\/a>, but the situation is actually worse than it looks.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s because Liverpool have outperformed their xG (expected goals) so far.<\/p>\n<p>Below, we have compared the xG Premier League table to the real table, to see who else is performing better or worse than expected.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">How we head into the international break \u2b07\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lLkcriKOBF\">pic.twitter.com\/lLkcriKOBF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Premier League (@premierleague) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/premierleague\/status\/1987613412143333431?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h4>Key Data Points:<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Liverpool&#8217;s expected points (xPts) are even worse than their current tally.<\/li>\n<li>Aston Villa should be in the relegation zone according to xG.<\/li>\n<li>Crystal Palace would be third according to xG.<\/li>\n<li>Newcastle and Leeds are better than their results suggest.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>The xG Premier League Table<\/h2>\n<p>For the xG table, a team&#8217;s expected goals for and against from each match are recorded, with the results fed in to calculate expected points.<\/p>\n<p>For example, if a team had an xG of 1.05, but actually scored two goals in that game, they would be recorded as scoring once.<\/p>\n<p>In some games, the xG for and against for teams differs from the real scoreline enough to change the result.<\/p>\n<p>Because of this, teams have a different xPts (expected points) to their real tally.<\/p>\n<p>The table below therefore orders the teams based on xPts, with their real position shown in the left-hand column.<\/p>\n<p><code><\/code><\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative; width: 100%; height: 0px; padding: 101.18% 0px 0px; overflow: hidden; will-change: transform;\"><iframe style=\"position: absolute; width: 100%; height: 100%; top: 0px; left: 0px; border: none; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" title=\"xG Premier League Table\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/61d9497d-97f6-4fd8-8709-78d572401797?src=embed&amp;embed_type=responsive_iframe\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>As the table shows, Arsenal and Manchester City would retain the top two places.<\/p>\n<p>But Arsenal&#8217;s four-point lead would be reduced to less than two if results reflected xG.<\/p>\n<p>Mikel Arteta&#8217;s team have 26 points, but have outperformed their xPts by 2.35.<\/p>\n<p>This means that their results have earned them 2.35 points more than predicted by xG.<\/p>\n<p>City, meanwhile, are close to their xPts, with only a 0.14 gap. This would indicate Pep Guardiola&#8217;s men are right where they should expect to be, based on their performances.<\/p>\n<h2>What Is xG And How Is It Calculated?<\/h2>\n<p>Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures how likely a player is to have scored any given chance.<\/p>\n<p>Invented by Opta in 2012, it has become a mainstay of football analytics.<\/p>\n<p>With xG, every shot is given a score from zero to one. A higher number indicates a chance that&#8217;s more likely to be scored.<\/p>\n<p>The number is based on Opta&#8217;s historical data, which includes around one million past shots.<\/p>\n<p>Factors taken into consideration include angles, distance, goalkeeper positioning, shot type and the position of other players.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_14679\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14679\" style=\"width: 560px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-14679\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-23-at-22.22.56-560x388.jpg\" alt=\"xg Premier League table\" width=\"560\" height=\"388\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-23-at-22.22.56-560x388.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-23-at-22.22.56-350x242.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-23-at-22.22.56-768x532.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-23-at-22.22.56.jpg 838w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14679\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">xG calculates how likely a chance is to be scored.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>For example, a shot given an xG of 0.4 means the player had a 40% chance of scoring from that opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>Over the season, those xG figures can be added and compared to the real tally, so see if a team is over or underperforming compared to xG.<\/p>\n<p>If a team is scoring well below their xG, it suggests they are playing well but struggling to finish chances.<\/p>\n<p>This could be down to luck, or indicate an issue with the team&#8217;s strikers.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, a team outscoring their xG may be reliant on clinical finishers, or have gotten lucky on multiple occasions.<\/p>\n<h2>Liverpool&#8217;s xG Suggests They Are Playing Even Worse Than Results<\/h2>\n<p>According to the xG table, Liverpool&#8217;s xPts total is 16.46.<\/p>\n<p>This means they actually have 1.54 more points than their performances have warranted.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s already been a poor start for the Reds, but the stats indicate that they should be even worse off than they are.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Liverpool have lost more matches this season than in the entirety of their 2024\/25 title-winning campaign \u274c<\/p>\n<p>Three of their next five fixtures are against teams currently in the bottom five&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gs5HaIuiO1\">pic.twitter.com\/gs5HaIuiO1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Premier League (@premierleague) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/premierleague\/status\/1987898050027868597?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Arne Slot is already under mounting pressure, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/next-liverpool-manager-betting-odds\/\"><strong>next Liverpool manager odds<\/strong><\/a> shortening rapidly.<\/p>\n<p>And if these stats are to be believed, the champions are actually lucky to be on as many points as they are.<\/p>\n<h2>Aston Villa In The Relegation Zone According to xG Premier League Table<\/h2>\n<p>Liverpool may be doing a little better than the xG table suggests, but Aston Villa are miles apart from their xPts tally.<\/p>\n<p>Unai Emery&#8217;s side started poorly, but have since won five of their last six to climb quickly up the standings.<\/p>\n<p>Villa sit sixth in the table, just four points off second-placed Manchester City.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_22624\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22624\" style=\"width: 560px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-22624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Morgan-Rogers-Aston-Villa-560x315.jpg\" alt=\"Aston Villa xg Premier League table\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Morgan-Rogers-Aston-Villa-560x315.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Morgan-Rogers-Aston-Villa-350x197.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Morgan-Rogers-Aston-Villa-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Morgan-Rogers-Aston-Villa.jpg 820w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22624\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Aston Villa have recovered after a poor start to the season.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>But the xG table tells a very different story.<\/p>\n<p>With an xPts tally of just 10.80, Villa would actually be 18th in the table if every team had their expected totals.<\/p>\n<p>The Midlands club have therefore been hugely over-performing expectations, and picking up results they have no right to.<\/p>\n<h2>Crystal Palace Desperately Unlucky Not To Be Better Off<\/h2>\n<p>Another side with a hugely different position in the xG table compared with the real one are Crystal Palace.<\/p>\n<p>Palace are currently 10th in a tightly-packed mid-table battle.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_59076\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-59076\" style=\"width: 560px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-59076\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/Palace-Comm-Shield-560x315.jpg\" alt=\"Carabao Cup Fourth Round Best Bets\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/Palace-Comm-Shield-560x315.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/Palace-Comm-Shield-350x197.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/Palace-Comm-Shield.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-59076\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Crystal Palace have beaten Liverpool three months in a row.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Oliver Glasner&#8217;s side have looked good, but drawn five of their 11 games and struggled to get over the line at times.<\/p>\n<p>Were the table based on xPts, they would actually sit third in the standings.<\/p>\n<p>The Eagles have underperformed their xPts by 2.14, meaning they should actually be on 19 points and in the Champions League places.<\/p>\n<h2>Newcastle And Leeds United Not As Bad As Results Indicate<\/h2>\n<p>While Palace and Liverpool have outperformed their xG, two sides under pressure have severely underperformed theirs.<\/p>\n<p>Both Newcastle United and Leeds have seen results slipping and them being dragged closer to the bottom three.<\/p>\n<p>The pair are now just two and one point above the drop zone respectively.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_69537\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-69537\" style=\"width: 560px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-69537\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Leeds-Necastle-560x420.webp\" alt=\"Leeds Vs Newcastle xg premier league table\" width=\"560\" height=\"420\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Leeds-Necastle-560x420.webp 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Leeds-Necastle-350x263.webp 350w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Leeds-Necastle.webp 640w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-69537\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Leeds and Newcastle have underperformed their xG this season.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>But Newcastle should be 4.68 points better off, while Leeds are 4.49 points worse off than their xPts total.<\/p>\n<p>This suggests that both are actually playing better than their results are showing.<\/p>\n<p>With <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/marco-silva-leeds-newcastle-united-fulham-manager\/\"><strong>Leeds and Newcastle keeping tabs on Fulham boss Marco Silva<\/strong><\/a>, a managerial change is being considered at both clubs.<\/p>\n<p>But the stats indicate that perhaps performances aren&#8217;t as bad as the table makes out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The xG Premier League table shows that Liverpool are actually underperforming even more than their results suggest so far this season. It&#8217;s been a torrid start to their title defence for Liverpool in 2025-26. The Premier League champions have fallen off a cliff in terms of results in recent weeks. Arne Slot&#8217;s side won their [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":369,"featured_media":68028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[123,74,52],"class_list":["post-69500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football","tag-aston-villa","tag-liverpool","tag-premier-league"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>xG Premier League Table Shows Liverpool Should Be Even Worse<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The xG Premier League table shows that Liverpool are actually underperforming even more than their results suggest so far this season.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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