{"id":7318,"date":"2025-09-18T16:30:48","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T16:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=7318"},"modified":"2025-09-18T20:43:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T20:43:55","slug":"ayr-gold-cup-trends-stats-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/ayr-gold-cup-trends-stats-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ayr Gold Cup Trends 2025: Favourites Record, Best Draw and Top Trainers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Use our key Ayr Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of Saturday big sprint handicap at the Scottish track &#8211; including only seeing five winning favourites since 1980 and a trainer that has won the prize five times since 2007.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Ayr Gold Cup Trends Say Favourites Have a Poor Record Since 1980 <em>(but have done better in the last 10 years)<\/em><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Since 1980 the <strong>Ayr Gold Cup<\/strong> has produced just five winning favourites.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, once we know the market leader for Saturday&#8217;s big race, the Ayr Gold Cup trends suggest horse racing fans should go carefully with those at the head of the market.<\/p>\n<p>However, there is some hope for favourite backers as four of these favourites have come since 2015 &#8211; meaning the jolly has a much better 40% strike-rate over this 10-year spell. But one of those did come in the 2018 dead-heat.<\/p>\n<p>A lot can change between now at the race on Saturday, but the likes of Northern Ticker, Ain&#8217;t Nobody and Stewards&#8217; Cup winner Two Tribes are near the head of the market with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/betting-sites\/horse-racing\/\">horse racing betting sites<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In recent years, the Ayr Gold Cup has also seen 54% of favourites unplaced in the last 24 runnings.<\/p>\n<p>Including last year&#8217;s market leader American Affair, who was only 16th &#8211; but it&#8217;s remarkable to say that horse is now a Group One winner after landing the King Charles III Stakes at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/royal-ascot-race-times-dates-race-card-times-tv-and-schedule-2025\/\">Royal Ascot<\/a> in June.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Trainer Kevin Ryan Has A Top Ayr Gold Cup Record<\/strong><\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_62763\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-62763\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-62763 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Kevin-Ryan.jpg\" alt=\"Kevin Ryan Horse Racing Trainer\" width=\"696\" height=\"463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Kevin-Ryan.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Kevin-Ryan-560x373.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Kevin-Ryan-350x233.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-62763\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Trainer Kevin Ryan Has Won The Ayr Gold Cup Five Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A trainer called Tom Dawson won the Ayr Gold Cup 15 times in the 1800&#8217;s and since then not many have come close to challenging that big haul.<\/p>\n<p>However, if you are looking for a handler that likes to target this race &#8211; you should end your search with <strong>Kevin Ryan<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The North Yorkshire-based trainer has five <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/past-ayr-gold-cup-winners\/\">past Ayr Gold Cup winners<\/a> since 2007, so anything he runs should be respected.<\/p>\n<p>Including winning the prize four times since 2011 &#8211; his first was Advanced in 2007 and most recent Bielsa in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Other trainers to note with good recent records are &#8211; Karl Burke (3 wins), Richard Fahey (2 wins), Andrew Balding (2 wins) and David O&#8217;Meara (2 wins).<\/p>\n<p>Of those, the Karl Burke team won the race last year in 2024 with Lethal Levi and actually had the 1-2-3 with Silkie Wilkie and Korker taking silver and bronze for Burke.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kevin Ryan Runners 2025 &#8211;<\/strong> Ain&#8217;t Nobody, Hammer The Hammer, We Never Stop and Bergerac<\/li>\n<li><strong>Karl Burke Runners 2025 &#8211;<\/strong> No entries<\/li>\n<li><strong>David O&#8217;Meara Runners 2025 &#8211;<\/strong> Toyotomi<\/li>\n<li><strong>Andrew Balding Runners 2025 &#8211;<\/strong> Purosangue<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Make 9st 1lb Your Ayr Gold Cup Trends Weight Cut-Off<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Being a handicap sprint run over 6f, then weight carried is key too.<\/p>\n<p>With that in mind, the Ayr Gold Cup trends point us towards 9st 1lbs being your weight cut-off point &#8211; with 17 of the last 24 winning with 9st 1lb or more &#8211; (71%).<\/p>\n<p>The 2024 winner (Lethal Levi) carried carried on this trend with 9st 7lbs and four of the last five have won with 9st-2lbs or more.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2020, the winners carried 9-5, 9-1, 9-5, 9-2 and 9-7.<\/p>\n<p>This year, there are five horses carrying 9st or less that have this stat to overcome &#8211; Jubilee Walk, Fahrenheit Seven, Desert Falcon, Bergerac and Kodi Lion.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Ayr Gold Cup Trends and Stats 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 24\/24 \u2013 Ran in the last 8 weeks<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 21\/24 \u2013 Had 3 or more wins<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 21\/24 \u2013 Ran in the last 5 weeks<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 18\/24 \u2013 Didn&#8217;t win their last race<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17\/24 \u2013 Double-figure stall<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17\/24 \u2013 9-1 or more in weight<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/24 \u2013 Aged 4 or 5 years-old<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/24 \u2013 Placed in the top 4 last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15\/24 \u2013 Rated 90-101<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 13\/24 \u2013 7 or more runs that season<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 13\/24 \u2013 Favourites unplaced<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 12\/24 \u2013 Raced at Doncaster (4), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 13\/24 \u2013 Ran at Ayr before<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 5\/24 \u2013 Trained by Kevin Ryan<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 4\/24 \u2013 Favourites (or joint) (only 5 winning favs since 1980)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/24 \u2013 Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 12)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2\/24 \u2013 Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 19)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 0\/24 \u2013 Filly or mare winners<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The last 8 winners were drawn 12+<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Trainer Karl Burke has won the race three times (1994, 1998 &amp; 2024)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 17 of the last 20 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 20 winners came from stall 8)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> The last horse to win &#8216;back-to-back&#8217; was Heronslea in 1930\/31<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Ayr Gold Cup 2025 Time and Date<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc5Date: Saturday 20th September 2025<br \/>\n<span class=\"JCzEY tNxQIb\"><span class=\"CSkcDe\">\u231aTime: 3:35pm<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n\ud83c\udfc7Racecourse: Ayr (6f)<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcb0Winning Purse: <span class=\"rp-raceTimeCourseName__info_container\" data-test-selector=\"text-raceTitleAndInfo\">\u00a392,772<\/span><br \/>\n\ud83d\udcfa TV: ITV and Racing TV<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Look Out For Horses Draw In A Double-Figure Stall<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>With a maximum of 25 Ayr Gold Cup runners, then naturally the race will have more horses drawn in double figures &#8211; 16 as opposed to nine.<\/p>\n<p>But it&#8217;s still worth noting that those drawn high have won 17 of the last 24 runnings (71%), while 15 of the last 16 came from stalls 8 or higher (94%), which suggests we can at least rule out those drawn 1-7.<\/p>\n<p>Last year&#8217;s Ayr Gold Cup winner, Lethal Levi was drawn in 20, with the winners since 2018 coming from stalls 17, 21, 24, 13, 25, 12, 14 and 20.<\/p>\n<p>ALL of the last seven winners were drawn 12+.<\/p>\n<p>However, the final interesting Ayr Gold Cup draw stat is that 4 of the last 20 winners (20%) came from the 8 berth.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Ayr Gold Cup Draw 2025\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The draw for the \u00a3180,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ladbrokes?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Ladbrokes<\/a> Ayr Gold Cup is complete! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ayrracecourse?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@ayrracecourse<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NQsXfSzPFr\">pic.twitter.com\/NQsXfSzPFr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Racing TV (@RacingTV) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RacingTV\/status\/1968621146330247357?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Horses Aged 4 or 5 Have The Best Recent Record<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Next up is the age of horse to look for, with those aged either 4 or 5 having the best record in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>Significantly in 2023 and last year&#8217;s winner Lethal Levi were both was aged 5 and since 2016 there have been seven winners aged either 4 or 5.<\/p>\n<p>While in the last 24 runnings this is further backed up with 63% of the winners (15) again aged 4 or 5.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, since 1980, there has only two winners aged 7 or older.<\/p>\n<p>Meaning the older runners in the 2025 Ayr Gold Cup field will have this stat to overcome.<\/p>\n<p>Summerghand won aged 8 in 2022, but since 1994 EVERY winner has been aged 6 or younger.<\/p>\n<p>While 3 year-olds are not totally discounted &#8211; with two winners (Angel Alexander, 2019) and (Don&#8217;t Touch, 2015) in the last 10 runnings.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Look Out For A Top Four Finish Last Time Out &#8211; But Maybe NOT Winning\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The final of our main Ayr Gold Cup trends to look out for are horses that recorded a &#8216;top 4&#8217; finish last time out.<\/p>\n<p>This is backed up with 63% of the last 24 runners finishing fourth or better in their last race before winning the Ayr Gold Cup.<\/p>\n<p>However, with 18 of the last 24 winners also NOT winning their last race &#8211; then maybe we are looking for horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out.<\/p>\n<p>These horses below finished in the top four in their last race.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Northern Ticker (1st)<\/li>\n<li>Two Tribes (4th)<\/li>\n<li>Flash Harry (1st)<\/li>\n<li>Aramram (3rd)<\/li>\n<li>Run Boy Run (4th)<\/li>\n<li>Fahrenheit Seven (1st)<\/li>\n<li>Jubilee Walk (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>Desert Falcon (1st)<\/li>\n<li>Bergerac (4th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Ayr Gold Cup Recent Winners <em>(last 10 years)<\/em><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2024 &#8211; Lethal Levi (20\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2023 \u2013 Significantly (8\/1 jfav)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2022 &#8211; Summerghand (12\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2021 \u2013 Bielsa (15\/2)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2020 &#8211; Nahaarr (7\/2 fav)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2019 \u2013 Angel Alexander (28\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2018 \u2013 Baron Bolt (28\/1) &amp; Son Of A Rest (5\/1 fav) (dead-heat)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2017 \u2013 Donjuan Triumphant (13\/2)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2016 \u2013 Brando (11\/1)<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-check-circle-o\" style=\"color:#f11d33\"><\/i> 2015 \u2013 Don\u2019t Touch (6\/1 fav)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>The Last Horse To Win <em>&#8216;Back-to-Back&#8217;<\/em> Ayr Gold Cups Was Heronslea In 1930 and 1931<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Last year&#8217;s Ayr Gold Cup was won by the Karl Burke-trained Lethal Levi. Who powered away to win by three lengths (watch below).<\/p>\n<p>However, the horse has progressed further this season and is now rated 114 and despite having an initial entry for the 2025 race &#8211; was taken out at the five-day stage.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s now contesting Listed and Group races.<\/p>\n<p>Meaning we won&#8217;t get to see the current Ayr Gold Cup champ in action and also meaning the run of NO &#8216;back-to-back&#8217; winners will carry on for another year.<\/p>\n<p>The last horse to win the race in<em> back-to-back<\/em> years was a runner called Heronslea in 1930 and 1931.<\/p>\n<p>More recently, the Dandy Nicholls runner Funfair Wane took the prize in 2002 and 2004. Just not consecutive seasons.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>WATCH: Lethal Levi Winning The 2025 Ayr Gold Cup For Trainer Karl Burke<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><iframe title=\"LETHAL LEVI leads home Karl Burke 1-2-3 in Ayr Gold Cup\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/urJqFyDR-k0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Use our key Ayr Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of Saturday big sprint handicap at the Scottish track &#8211; including only seeing five winning favourites since 1980 and a trainer that has won the prize five times since 2007.\u00a0 Ayr Gold Cup Trends Say Favourites Have a Poor Record [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":62916,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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