{"id":81779,"date":"2026-06-05T12:06:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T12:06:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/?p=81779"},"modified":"2026-06-05T12:06:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T12:06:13","slug":"kevin-blake-james-j-braddock-derby-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/kevin-blake-james-j-braddock-derby-value\/","title":{"rendered":"Kevin Blake&#8217;s 10\/1 Derby Wildcard James J Braddock: Is the Value Already Gone?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ITV Racing pundit and owner <strong>Kevin Blake<\/strong> is unambiguously bullish about <strong>James J Braddock<\/strong>&#8216;s chances in Saturday&#8217;s Epsom Derby 2026 &#8211; and given that he watched this son of Zarak get up on the line to deny <strong>Pierre Bonnard<\/strong> at Leopardstown, his confidence is not without foundation. The horse is trained by <strong>Joseph O&#8217;Brien<\/strong>, was purchased for a modest 40,000 guineas at Tattersalls, and has since compressed from 100\/1 to a current ante-post price of 10\/1 &#8211; one of the most dramatic market moves in this year&#8217;s Derby betting odds.<\/p>\n<p>Paddy Power triggered the initial slash &#8211; cutting James J Braddock from 100\/1 to 25\/1 immediately after the Leopardstown Derby Trial win &#8211; and sharp money has done the rest, tightening him to 10\/1 in the weeks since. Racing Post&#8217;s Pricewise column flagged him at 25\/1 before the market moved, which tells you exactly when the professional interest arrived. The central question now is whether 10\/1 still represents a genuine opportunity or whether the punters who read the trial correctly have already taken the cream.<\/p>\n<h2>Current Epsom Derby Betting Odds<\/h2>\n<p>Here are the latest Derby market prices heading into Saturday&#8217;s race, courtesy of current bookmaker listings:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Benvenuto Cellini:<\/strong> 2\/1<\/li>\n<li><strong>Item:<\/strong> 10\/3<\/li>\n<li><strong>Pierre Bonnard:<\/strong> 5\/1<\/li>\n<li><strong>Maltese Cross:<\/strong> 9\/1<\/li>\n<li><strong>James J Braddock:<\/strong> 10\/1<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bay Of Brilliance:<\/strong> 14\/1<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ancient Egypt:<\/strong> 16\/1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Odds are for entertainment purposes only and subject to change.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>James J Braddock&#8217;s Leopardstown Trial: What the Form Actually Shows<\/h2>\n<p>The Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown is not a race you win narrowly if you&#8217;re merely fortunate &#8211; it&#8217;s a race you win narrowly if you find something under pressure that less genuine horses don&#8217;t. James J Braddock, sent off at 9\/1, tracked the pace, mastered Endorsement in the straight, and nailed the odds-on <strong>Pierre Bonnard<\/strong> right on the line under Dylan Browne McMonagle. A short-head margin in a Derby trial is a double-edged analytical object: it demonstrates relentless cadence and grinding ability &#8211; both of which the Epsom test rewards &#8211; but it also invites the question of whether the form ceiling is one of character rather than class.<\/p>\n<p>The honest answer is that the Epsom mile-and-a-half suits exactly this profile. A horse who grinds, stays, and finds more under pressure is better equipped for Epsom&#8217;s undulations and camber than a flashy, high-cruising-speed colt who wins big on a flat galloping track. Pierre Bonnard re-opposes on Saturday at 5\/1 &#8211; and the fact that Joseph O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s charge reversed the trial market to deny the odds-on favourite is a meaningful form line, not a fluke. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/betfair-analyst-names-his-epsom-derby-1-2-3-finish-and-top-obrien-pick\/\">Betfair&#8217;s own biomechanics-led Derby analysis places James J Braddock firmly in the conversation<\/a>, with his stride profile cited as compatible with Epsom&#8217;s specific demands.<\/p>\n<h2>From 100\/1 to 10\/1: Why Sharp Money Has Already Found This Horse<\/h2>\n<p>The odds trajectory tells a clear story. Before Leopardstown, James J Braddock was a 100\/1 curiosity in the Derby betting odds &#8211; a lightly raced colt with a promising Curragh maiden win (six lengths, second start as a juvenile) but no proven Classic form. The trial changed everything. Paddy Power&#8217;s immediate cut to 25\/1 was a bookmaker reacting to a race result; the subsequent move from 25\/1 to 10\/1 was something different &#8211; that&#8217;s professional money arriving with conviction after the Pricewise nod and market study confirmed the form was legitimate.<\/p>\n<p>At 10\/1, James J Braddock sits fifth in the market, sandwiched between William Haggas&#8217;s <strong>Maltese Cross<\/strong> at 9\/1 and Ralph Beckett&#8217;s <strong>Bay Of Brilliance<\/strong> at 14\/1. The one honest caveat here is that some of the value is unquestionably gone &#8211; the punter who read the Leopardstown trial immediately and took 25\/1 ante-post has already won the value battle regardless of Saturday&#8217;s result. Whether 10\/1 still represents opportunity depends on your assessment of <strong>Benvenuto Cellini<\/strong>&#8216;s 2\/1 favouritism: if you believe the Aidan O&#8217;Brien hotpot is beatable, a 10\/1 shot with proven trial form, improving profile, and conditions in his favour is still a credible play.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Kevin Blake Is Backing His Own Horse at 10\/1<\/h2>\n<p>Blake&#8217;s position here requires a moment of clear-eyed analysis. He is simultaneously an ITV Racing pundit &#8211; a professional expected to give impartial assessments &#8211; and the owner of James J Braddock, a man with skin in the game and first-hand knowledge of what this horse does at home. Those two roles don&#8217;t cancel each other out, but they do create a credibility dynamic that any analytically minded reader should register. His bullishness cannot be taken as the verdict of a disinterested analyst.<\/p>\n<p>That said, his case is coherent and specific. Blake has explicitly welcomed the rain &#8211; &#8220;the rain is falling, which we&#8217;re happy with&#8221; &#8211; flagging that easing ground suits the horse&#8217;s grinding style. On the stall 13 draw, he went further: &#8220;I&#8217;m actually quite happy, especially when you look at the structure of the race and where the fancied horses are drawn compared to the outsiders.&#8221; That is not the language of an owner making excuses; it is the language of someone who has studied the race map and believes his horse has a tactical advantage. His overall mood &#8211; &#8220;the excitement is off the scale, everything has gone super smooth and it couldn&#8217;t be better&#8221; &#8211; reflects a man who has watched this horse train well all week and likes what he sees.<\/p>\n<h2>Joseph O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s Derby Ambitions and What They Mean for James J Braddock<\/h2>\n<p>Joseph O&#8217;Brien won two Epsom Derbies as a jockey &#8211; both for his father Aidan &#8211; but has yet to land the race as a trainer. That is not a gap in his CV he&#8217;s indifferent to. He already saddles Thundering On in Friday&#8217;s Oaks, and the possibility of a trainer&#8217;s Classic double across two days at Epsom is a genuine narrative hook this week. O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s track record with improving middle-distance three-year-olds is well established &#8211; his Irish Derby win with Latrobe demonstrated an ability to place a horse precisely and extract a career-best performance at the right moment.<\/p>\n<p>The 40,000-guinea purchase price for James J Braddock is the detail that anchors the whole story. A horse bought for roughly \u00a342,000 at Tattersalls Book 2 is now a 10\/1 shot for the Blue Riband &#8211; that margin of improvement, from bargain-buy yearling to Classic contender, reflects both the horse&#8217;s talent and O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s training. It also echoes the &#8220;against-the-odds&#8221; theme of the horse&#8217;s namesake, the 1930s heavyweight champion James J. Braddock &#8211; the original Cinderella Man. The narrative is compelling, but the form underneath it is what counts on Saturday, and on that measure, the O&#8217;Brien operation has delivered at every stage so far.<\/p>\n<h2>Bottom Line and Bet Recommendation<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:<\/strong> The value at 100\/1 is gone. The value at 25\/1 is gone. Whether 10\/1 is still playable is a question of how seriously you rate Benvenuto Cellini&#8217;s 2\/1 &#8211; and there are genuine grounds to think the favourite is short. Kevin Blake&#8217;s horse arrives at Epsom with proven trial form over the re-opposing Pierre Bonnard, a trainer building toward a first Derby win as handler, easing ground that connections explicitly welcome, and a grinding style that the Epsom mile-and-a-half consistently rewards. Stall 13 is not a disadvantage at Epsom in a softening market, and Blake&#8217;s reading of the draw is backed by the race structure. Watch the going reports before Saturday&#8217;s off &#8211; any further rain firms up the case considerably.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Bet:<\/strong> James J Braddock each-way at 10\/1. Place terms pay 1-2-3-4, and a horse of this profile &#8211; improving, staying, grinding &#8211; is well-positioned to hit the frame even if Benvenuto Cellini proves as good as his price suggests. For further context on how the broader Derby market is shaping up, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/uk\/news\/betfair-analyst-names-his-epsom-derby-1-2-3-finish-and-top-obrien-pick\/\">the Betfair analyst&#8217;s full 1-2-3 Derby preview<\/a> offers a useful complementary framework.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kevin Blake&#8217;s Derby Pick James J Braddock: Value Gone?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":484,"featured_media":81778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-horse-racing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Kevin Blake&#039;s 10\/1 Derby Wildcard James J Braddock: Is the Value Already Gone? 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