Wimbledon betting picks for Day 1 feature value on Katie Boulter, a live underdog in van de Zandschulp, and Fritz in a grinder.
There’s something timeless about opening day at Wimbledon. From the green lawns to the crisp whites, it’s one of the most iconic days on the tennis calendar, and one of the best for bettors looking to find early value. Monday’s slate features some intriguing matchups, particularly where grass-court form and injury questions create edges the market may be slow to adjust to.
Whether it’s a live home underdog in Katie Boulter, a fading favorite in Matteo Arnaldi, or a dangerous floater in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, the board is full of opportunity. Let’s break down the three most bet-worthy matchups to open the 2024 Wimbledon Championships.
Katie Boulter vs. Paula Badosa: Home Favorite Worth a Shot
Paula Badosa’s recurring injury concerns make Katie Boulter a compelling underdog play on Monday. Badosa retired after dropping the first set in Berlin just last week, and when injuries start piling up for her, they rarely disappear quickly. That makes a retirement bet-friendly match, especially at sportsbooks like FanDuel that pay on opening-set retirements.
But even if Badosa makes it through, Boulter has the edge on grass. Her 64% career winning percentage on the surface (32-18) far exceeds Badosa’s modest 16-12 mark. The Brit’s game suits grass: aggressive, flat groundstrokes that rob opponents of time and favor quick points.
Factor in the home-court edge and Badosa’s inconsistency under pressure, and Boulter is more than just a live dog—she’s a legitimate threat.
✅ Bet: Boulter ML (+152)
Britain’s number one and number two Emma Raducanu and Katie Boulter practising together ahead of their first-round matches at Wimbledon tomorrow 🇬🇧🎾 pic.twitter.com/lZmjtRFIsN
— Sky Sports Tennis (@SkySportsTennis) June 29, 2025
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Grass Edge Too Big to Ignore
On paper, this appears to be a toss-up. However, surface familiarity tips the scales in favor of Botic van de Zandschulp. The Dutchman is just 4-11 in 2025, yet his 9-11 career record on grass at the ATP level gives him an experience edge over Arnaldi, who is 1-5 lifetime on the surface. That includes a straight-sets loss to Jan-Lennard Struff in Stuttgart, his only grass match this season.
Van de Zandschulp’s serve, flat groundstrokes, and ability to keep points low all translate well on grass. Arnaldi, by contrast, still appears uncomfortable on the surface, and his limited preparation, with just three grass matches in the last 52 weeks, doesn’t help.
If the Dutchman serves well and avoids unforced errors, he should have every chance to win outright.
✅ Bet: Van de Zandschulp ML (+114)
Taylor Fritz vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Expect a Long One
Taylor Fritz comes in with momentum after winning back-to-back titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne, but Monday’s matchup is no cakewalk. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, despite a 6-13 record in 2025, is one of the toughest players to break on grass. His 91.7% hold rate on the surface is elite, and he’s won at least one set in 16 of his 20 career grass matches.
That serve is the great equalizer, especially against Fritz, whose return game is often vulnerable. The American has also played a grueling schedule, logging eight matches in the last two weeks, raising questions about stamina in best-of-five matches.
With Perricard’s history of pushing matches into tiebreakers and Fritz’s subpar record in breakers (7-12 in 2025), this one feels destined to go long. Fritz should survive—but not without a scare.
✅ Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-161)
Eastbourne Champion 🏆
Taylor Fritz is just the second American to win multiple grass titles in a single season after Pete Sampras in 1995 and 1999 🇺🇸🦅
[Source: OptaAce] pic.twitter.com/TJDaMIN7sS— TNT Sports (@tntsports) June 29, 2025
