The Dallas Wings face the Phoenix Mercury in a Friday night rematch. After falling in Dallas, Phoenix looks to rebound at home behind Paige Bueckers and strong home-court play. The Dallas Wings face the Phoenix Mercury in a Friday night rematch.
The Dallas Wings (6-13) and Phoenix Mercury (12-6) meet for a Friday night rematch in Phoenix after an upset victory by the Wings earlier this week. With tip-off set for 10:00 p.m. ET at PHX Arena, this game offers value for bettors looking to back a bounce-back from the home team.
The Mercury are currently listed as 6-point favorites with a moneyline of -250, while the total is set at 164.5 points. The Wings are priced as +205 underdogs, but they’re riding some newfound momentum after winning three of their last four games.
However, while Dallas appears to be trending upward, Phoenix has been a different team at home, and this matchup sets up perfectly for a bounce-back performance from the Mercury.
The Wings Rooks took over in Dallas and got the W against the Mercury 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/aVX1woS0Te
— Nanette♊️ (@NanouBwa) July 4, 2025
Why Phoenix is Poised to Rebound
Phoenix dropped back-to-back games this week, including a 98-89 loss to this same Wings team on Thursday in Dallas. But the Mercury return to PHX Arena, where they’ve been 7-3 on the season and far more efficient on both ends of the court.
The Thursday loss marked the end of a six-game winning streak for Phoenix, and you can bet head coach Nate Tibbetts will have his group motivated for a response. Dallas played that game without key starters and still found a way to win, something the Mercury will look to avenge in front of their home crowd.
Phoenix’s backcourt, featuring Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper, and Paige Bueckers, has been one of the most explosive in the league, and Friday night presents a prime spot for them to shine.
Paige Bueckers: Star on the Rise
Paige Bueckers has steadily established herself as a go-to option on offense. The former UConn standout has averaged 18.7 points per game this season and has scored 20 or more in five of her last six games.
With Dallas missing key defenders and struggling to contain guards on the perimeter, Bueckers is in a favorable matchup to continue her scoring surge. Expect her usage to be high again tonight, especially if the Mercury lean into pushing the tempo early to avoid another sluggish start.
Mercury assistant coach Megan Vogel on similarities between Wings’ star rookie Paige Bueckers and Diana Taurasi:
“Just their ability to make tough baskets, to will themselves to get a shot when they want to get one. Paige has a bright, bright future in this league. pic.twitter.com/kW1HAtA0NQ
— DANA (@iam_DanaScott) July 7, 2025
Wings vs. Mercury: Key Betting Trends
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Mercury are 7-3 at home this season, covering in five of those wins.
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Dallas is just 2-8 on the road, with both wins coming against bottom-tier teams.
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The Wings have covered in four of their last five, but are dealing with lingering injury issues.
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The Over has hit in three of Phoenix’s last four games at home.
Best Bets for Wings vs. Mercury (July 5)
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Phoenix Mercury -6 (-110)
Look for Phoenix to come out focused and aggressive on both ends of the floor in a bounce-back spot. -
Paige Bueckers 20+ Points (+100 or better)
With Dallas shorthanded and Bueckers in rhythm, this is a strong value prop.
While Dallas has shown signs of life, Phoenix’s dominant home-court form, coupled with the revenge factor from Thursday’s upset loss, makes the Mercury a strong play here. Add in Paige Bueckers’ scoring consistency, and Friday’s slate offers a clear angle for bettors looking to finish the week strong.
Prediction: Mercury 91, Wings 80
Expect Phoenix to cover the spread and for Bueckers to continue her breakout rookie campaign with another 20-point outing.
