The race for Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars has begun. Two early contenders have jumped to the front of the list. Find out the odds for Best Actress below.
Cynthia Erivo, Jennifer Lawrence Get Out To Early Leads
Cynthia Erivo, 'Wicked' (Best Actress nominee, 2024) #Oscars #oscarsclip pic.twitter.com/eyVrBa89jy
— oscarsclip 🎀 (@oscarsclip) March 5, 2025
A brilliant witch and a depressed mother have emerged in the Best Actress race.
Cynthia Erivo reprises her role of Elphaba Thropp in Universal’s Wicked: For Good. Last year, Wicked took the world by storm thanks to its crowd-pleasing anthems and magnetic chemistry between Erivo and her costar, Ariana Grande.
Wicked became a smash hit, grossing over $756 million worldwide. The musical received 10 Oscar nominations, including Best Actress for Erivo.
Erivio will try to become the seventh actor to receive a nomination for playing the same character twice. Of the six actors, Bing Crosby and Paul Newman are the only two actors to have won at least once for playing a character nominated twice.
If Erivio wins the Oscar, she will have completed the EGOT. Erivio has previously won an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony.
Wicked: For Good arrives in theaters on November 21, 2025.
While Erivio is looking for her first Oscar win, Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress at the age of 22 for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook.
Lawrence returns to the awards race this year with Die My Love, the upcoming psychological drama from Lynne Ramsay. Lawrence plays a new mother who develops postpartum depression. She moves with her husband (Robert Pattinson) to Montana, where her health and mental state begin to deteriorate.
Die My Love premiered at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival to positive reviews, with Lawrence’s performance being deemed award-worthy.
Die My Love opens in theaters on November 7, 2025.
2026 Oscars: Best Actress Odds
| 2026 Oscars: Best Actress | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good | +185 |
| Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love | +225 |
| Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night | +400 |
| Jessie Buckley, Hamnet | +450 |
| Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary | +1000 |
| Jodie Comer, Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde | +1000 |
| Emma Stone, Bugonia | +1000 |
| Dakota Johnson, Materialists | +1200 |
| Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine | +1200 |
Odds via BetOnline on 7/17/25 at 6 p.m. ET
BetOnline has Erivo (+185) and Lawrence (+225) out in front. Their successful history with the Academy should propel them to nominations.
If I had to pick, Lawrence is the better play to win because it’s a dramatic, transformative performance, something the Academy loves to reward.
Oscar nominee Jessie Buckley (+450) stars alongside Paul Mescal in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. The last time Zhao made a non-Marvel movie (Nomadland), she won two Oscars. If Hamnet is well-received, Buckley will be a contender.
Two names not on the current list that will certainly be in contention are Julia Roberts for After the Hunt and Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value.
Besides Call Me By Your Name, Luca Guadagnino’s movies don’t have good track records with the Academy, so an Oscar nomination for Roberts is uncertain.
However, Reinsve is easily one of the five contenders for Best Actress. Sentimental Value won the Grand Prix at the Cannes Film Festival, and many believe it will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.
Right now, Reinsve is my pick to win Best Actress.
