A common talking point this offseason has been about how wide open the Eastern Conference is for 2025-26. Could it be the Cleveland Cavaliers’ year? What about the New York Knicks finally breaking through? Or the Orlando Magic? How about those Atlanta Hawks?
Despite the “it’s anyone’s game” nature of this discussion, no one has mentioned the team touting a former MVP, a six-time All-NBA forward and a burgeoning All-Star. Well, I’m here to tell to say, while things very well could go terribly wrong, you can’t forget about the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Big Three
As it has for nearly a decade, everything starts with Joel Embiid for the 76ers.
I’m going to keep it a buck, last year was pretty rough for the big fella. His scoring and efficiency rates were far from the all-time marks we’ve grown accustomed to, his all-in-one metrics paled in comparison to past seasons and the 76ers were outscored when he was on the floor (minus-4.9 net rating, per PBP Stats).
I struggled to find any indicator suggesting Embiid still had a dominant footprint, but right before I lost all hope, I discovered this piece of data on Cleaning the Glass: the 76ers were 9.7 points better per 100 possessions defensively when Embiid was on the floor (97th percentile) and had a 110.2 defensive rating overall (87th percentile). For all the bumps and bruises that have befallen this gentle giant, he can still anchor a high-end defense.
A recent profile of him on ESPN has many people questioning how much he has left in the tank (and how one medical staff could be so incompetent). But if Embiid can just give the 76ers 75-80 percent of his old offensive punch, he has the defensive impact to still be a clear top-10-15 player, which, with their other offensive pieces, may be all they need at this point.
Speaking of which, Tyrese Maxey is still a damn good player. Injuries forced him to spend 972 of his 1,960 minutes (49.6 percent) without Embiid and Paul George on the court. This put excess pressure on his offensive load, resulting in a dip in efficiency (54.2 percent true shooting). When he shared the court with both of them, he was at a pristine 63.4 percent. If Embiid and George can be more available, it’ll allow Maxey to profit off the gravity their reputations create.
The 76ers just won 24 games with a pretty similar roster to what they’ll enter 2025-26 touting, but they were absolutely decimated by injuries. According to Spotrac, Philadelphia had the most games lost due to injury. Yes, it has some players more prone to injury than others, but there is no way that kind of luck can repeat itself for two straight years, right?
By now, consistent readers of my work are probably wondering how I, as someone on the record as calling the Big Three model antiquated, could support a team with so much capital tied to a triumvirate of stars. This brings me to the Paul George of it all.
If Embiid was bad last year, George was downright rough, posting offensive numbers we haven’t seen since his rookie season. And given he’s entering his age-35 season, it is hard to imagine he has too many elite years ahead of him. But the 76ers don’t need him to be Playoff P anymore. In fact, they would be better off if he wasn’t.
The reason I think the three-star model no longer works is it ties up too much money and minutes to on-ball creation, leaving limited room for all the ancillary skills like spacing, perimeter defense and rim protection that make up a truly cohesive roster.
George initially made his bones in the league as an elite defender. He’s placed in the 88th percentile or higher in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) in 12 of 15 seasons. With Maxey — and one other jitterbug guard I’ll discuss shortly — taking on more offensive primacy, George can slot into a supercharged three-and-D role (he’s also a career 38.3 percent 3-point shooter).
A Tantalizing Young Trio
Time is a funny phenomenon in that, when enough of it passes, we forget the stuff we already know. Before he went down in December with a season-ending knee injury, Jared McCain was the clear frontrunner to win the Rookie of the Year award and stood out because of his advanced scoring arsenal at such a young age.
In 23 games, he averaged 22.1 points per 75 possessions (89th percentile) on 59.1 percent true shooting (65th percentile) — demonstrating an ability to get to and convert on all three levels. He led all 2024-25 rookies in Offensive EPM.
There are still questions about his playmaking and defense, but, at the very least, McCain projects to be the exact type of combo guard who can swing a game (or a series) when he’s really feeling it. Plus, since he’s still on his rookie scale deal, his limitations are much easier to endure because there isn’t a considerable portion of the salary cap invested in him.
The main bright spot of the 76ers’ closing stretch last year (outside of the fact they lost enough to land the third overall pick) was the re-emergence of Quentin Grimes. After a down 2023-24 campaign, Grimes rekindled his 2022-23 groove then showed us a level we had not yet seen before. In March (14 games), Grimes averaged 26.6 points and 4.9 assists on 62.3 percent true shooting.
Now, if the 76ers are healthy, Grimes will need to settle back into the three-and-D role he’s filled for most of his NBA career. But his brief experience being The Guy will only serve to help him when attacking closeouts and being a tertiary scoring option. Besides, with Maxey and McCain expected to play big minutes, Philadelphia will need a strong defender to handle tough perimeter assignments.
And yes, I know Grimes still hasn’t agreed to a new deal with the 76ers. However, I fully expect him to eventually re-sign. If he doesn’t, that significantly changes how I feel about them next season because they’re in dire need of his connective skillset.
Lastly, there’s rookie guard, V.J. Edgecombe. Admittedly, I don’t follow prospects too closely until they reach the NBA, and I still have a lot to learn about the young slasher. But from what I have learned thus far (mainly from the great Ben Pfeifer), it seems like he projects as a nice off-ball piece to flank their bevy of potent scorers.
Of course, given his amateur status (he’ll be just 20 at the start of the season), it is far from a shoo-in he can contribute to winning in year one. Still, his top-tier athleticism at least gives him a shot of cracking the rotation.
What Does This All Mean?
Outside of the six guys I outlined above, the 76ers don’t have a ton of players I really love. Some combination of Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, Adem Bona, Justin Edwards, and Jabari Walker should round out the rest of their rotation.
Since they aren’t super deep, another case of the injury bug could very easily have them as bottom-feeders in the Eastern Conference once more. But with how strong their top five of Embiid-Maxey-George-McCain-Grimes is on paper, if they can just get something out of Edgecombe and two or three others (my guess is Oubre, Drummond and Edwards) and maybe trade for a solid bench piece, the 76ers can be pretty damn good.
Can they be good enough to win the Eastern Conference? Probably not. But they are certainty worth keeping an eye on, given “it’s anyone’s game” out East.
