The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic both sense an opportunity, of that we can be sure.
Both teams made moves this offseason to significantly bolster their respective rosters and possibly position themselves to come out of the Eastern Conference.
It can be argued the Hawks had the best offseason of any team in the East. The Magic, though, may have upgraded in the most meaningful way relative to their needs. Kristaps Porzingis and Desmond Bane — each club’s marquee offseason addition — sit front and center in terms of how far their teams can go.
Atlanta already knows what it’s like to get close to the East summit, having made the Eastern Conference Finals behind Trae Young in 2021. Orlando, meanwhile, is looking to take the next step with Paolo Banchero as the head honcho and go further than just the first round.
If the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks are the cream of the crop in the East, then Orlando and Atlanta are the challengers. Which one is the better challenger? Let’s dig into that.
Magic Core Vs. Hawks Core
The Hawks certainly have the experience factor. In Young, they have a player who’s previously led them to the Eastern Conference Finals. In the newly acquired Porzingis, Atlanta has a player who’s made important contributions to a title-winning team.
Orlando’s core hasn’t sniffed that type of experience. What the Magic do have is a burgeoning dynamic duo between Banchero and Franz Wagner, both of whom could be All-Stars for years to come, flanked by a proven two-way star guard in Bane. Jalen Suggs is also already one of the league’s best perimeter defenders.
With the amount of spacing Bane should theoretically provide, the onus is on Banchero and Wagner to prove themselves as efficient scorers. Suggs will have to join the party in spacing the floor consistently enough, having bounced between 31.4 percent (2024-25) and 39.7 percent (2023-24) from deep the past two years.
Banchero had a monster start to last season before suffering an oblique injury. While he was good upon his return, he wasn’t great. Through three seasons, he has a 54.2 true shooting percentage, which includes an underwhelming 32 percent on threes and 73 percent on free throws.
Wagner also suffered the same injury last season en route to a career-low 55.8 true shooting percentage. While his free-throw shooting is excellent at a career mark of 85.6 percent, he has shot under 30 percent beyond the arc each of the last two seasons.
Atlanta has very few questions offensively between Young and Porzingis. An emerging star, Johnson is an efficient scorer around the basket. There are fair injury concerns on both sides. It’s hard to see much separation there.
At this juncture, I’m not entirely sure what Atlanta’s best starting five would be. Porzingis, Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher and Nickeil Alexander-Walker all have cases to join Young and Johnson as optimal starters.
It’s defensively where the Magic core hold the edge. Considering the question marks surrounding Porzingis, I tend to slightly lean toward Orlando having the better core.
Magic Depth Vs. Hawks Depth
Orlando’s depth is bolstered by the arrivals of Tyus Jones and Jase Richardson via free agency and the Draft, respectively. A full season out of Mo Wagner would be a huge help at center.
As a rookie, Tristan da Silva was tasked with a lot of responsibility while Banchero and Wagner were out. He should slide into a more comfortable role now. Jonathan Isaac will wreak havoc whenever he can be on the court.
Atlanta, meanwhile, snared a crucial piece in Alexander-Walker and another spacing option in Luke Kennard. Asa Newell arrived via the Draft and more will be expected of Mouhamed Gueye after the departure of Clint Capela.
Which team has the better depth? The Hawks’ front-court inexperience worries me when considering Porzingis’ injury history. Their top options feel flat out better, though.
Alexander-Walker and Risacher will be great reserves. This assumes the Hawks’ starting front-court is Johnson, Porzingis and Okongwu, though it’s plausible Alexander-Walker or Risacher starts.
Is there enough scoring coming off the bench for the Magic? Things feel just a little bit light in that department. Atlanta feels like the better bet in this aspect.
Overall Identity
It’s a classic battle of offense vs. defense between these two teams. Atlanta absolutely figures to have the better offense while Orlando will see itself as one of the best defensive teams in the league.
Will Bane’s arrival raise the Magic’s offensive ceiling in a meaningful enough way? That’s their biggest question. There’s so much this team can do defensively to be a formidable playoff opponent. The regular season does tilt more toward offense, though.
Atlanta seems to have a myriad of weapons to utilize offensively. The Bane acquisition created a splash but there’s still work to do for Orlando to be a truly potent offense.
Last year, the Magic did win three of four against Atlanta, including the Play-In Tournament battle. Johnson and Suggs were sidelined for their respective clubs, not to mention the significant roster turnover each team’s undergone this offseason.
Young just didn’t have enough offensive support around him and the Magic defense feasted on that. Orlando also got a huge scoring boost from Cole Anthony, who is no longer there.
The Hawks have upgraded in a more well-rounded way, so I’d view them as the slight favorite for the third seed.
