The Miami Heat are a team in flux, even in the East.
Perhaps, no one wants to vocalize it out of respect for team president Pat Riley and Heat culture, but that’s the reality. There are some good players on the team, a few interesting young players, but nothing that makes you feel they’re ascending toward something special.
It’s to be expected. Miami only traded away franchise star Jimmy Butler at last year’s trade deadline. It’s going to take time to recover from that. Norman Powell is in and Duncan Robinson is out. Rookie Kasparas Jakucionis will show whether it was justified or a blessing he fell to 20th in this summer’s NBA Draft.
Miami could decide on a definitive direction by the trade deadline. Having already ducked the luxury tax, the Heat may also be happy to be free of controversy and hungry to prove how much some fresh South Beach air can change things.
Offensive Overview
Miami had its share of offensive woes last season, ranking just 21st in offensive rating. Tyler Herro was an All-Star but is likely better suited as a secondary offensive option. The Heat couldn’t manage to find a Butler-tier replacement but Powell will certainly reduce the weight on Herro’s shoulders.
Powell, in fact, may want to show the full extent of his offensive prowess. Having been in the shadow of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard (when Leonard was healthy) last season, Powell may be looking to set a new career-high in scoring for a second straight year.
Bam Adebayo is coming off worst offensive season of his career, so the Heat will be expecting a bounce-back campaign. He averaged his fewest points per game since 2019-20 and shot the lowest two-point percentage of his career.
The 28-year-old did grow as a 3-point shooter, making 35.7 percent of his 221 attempts from deep. That’s more than five times his previous career-high in attempts. In fact, he’d only taken 104 career threes prior to 2024-25.
What head coach Erik Spoelstra should be happy about is entering the season with a clear view of exactly how Miami can function most nights. This is not a situation where Butler and Herro need to trade off being featured offensively every game.
Defensive Overview
Miami has to like its defensive front-court of Adebayo, Kel’el Ware and Andrew Wiggins. It’s the starting backcourt, however, that presents concerns.
As prolific as Herro and Powell are offensively, they can absolutely be picked on defensively. Davion Mitchell is a tremendous on-ball defender, so it will be interesting to see how Spoelstra is able to figure him into lineups and maximize his playing time. Of course, there is a tradeoff, given his offensive limitations, particularly compared to what Herro and Powell offer.
Jakucionis will have low expectations defensively as a rookie, too. The success of opposing offenses will very likely come down to how much they can punish Miami’s backcourt.
The Heat play zone defense more frequently than any other team around the league. Spoelstra may lean further into that, relying on Adebayo, Ware and Wiggins to be great anchors and limit opponents’ opportunities to expose a shaky group of perimeter defenders.
Miami Heat’s Overall Outlook
Relative to where it sat after trading away Butler, Miami has improved its offense. Yes, Robinson’s departure means one fewer spacing option but Powell will likely get a lot of those looks and is a career 40.4 percent outside shooter. Spoelstra is also expecting more from second-year wing Pelle Larsson this season.
If the Heat upgrade to league-average offensively, the question will be whether they can sustain a top-10 defense for the 11th straight season. It’s worth keeping in mind Miami recently traded away Haywood Highsmith — a high-level perimeter defender — purely for tax reasons. That will hurt its defensive outlook.
The Heat are going to show what they’re made of on both ends right out of the gate. Twenty-one of their first 31 opponents project to be plus-.500 teams. Wiggins has been in trade rumors, so his first half of the season could have a big say in how things trend there.
Looking beyond the anticipated top four of Cleveland, New York, Atlanta and Orlando, Detroit has an established identity. Toronto has more talent. Milwaukee still has the best player in the conference. Even a depleted Indiana team might think it has more because of clarity in playing style and recent success.
Another Play-In Tournament berth looms for the Heat, it appears.
