American sensation Coco Gauff faces a difficult path to winning the U.S. Open title in 2025.
The women’s draw was unveiled on Thursday and it’s fair to say she faces the most difficult draw of any of the top four seeds. It doesn’t help that Gauff hasn’t been playing at her peak of late, either.
Gauff has cooled off a bit after her French Open win so there will be others believing there is opportunity in her quarter of the draw. She lost in the first round of Wimbledon, to Vicky Mboko in the Round of 16 in Montreal and then to Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals of Cincinnati.
Still, she won this tournament in 2023 and will have the backing of New York.
Aryna Sabalenka won’t have too many complaints about her path and that’s life as the top seed most times. No one is in better form than Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek right now and she may well be the woman to beat at this tournament.
If Swiatek can win the tournament, she could open the door to a return to the No. 1 ranking by the end of the season.
Here’s everything you need to know about the draw.
Here’s who could be your final 8️⃣ from the women’s singles draw!
This is going to be good 😎 pic.twitter.com/knYNcONCRg
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 21, 2025
What Lies In Store For Sabalenka?
Sabalenka has some notable names to contend with, beginning with former finalist Leylah Fernandez. The Canadian won in Washington but couldn’t get anything meaningful going in Montreal, Cincinnati or Monterrey.
Clara Tauson could be a matchup to look out for. The Dane reached the semis of Montreal, coming up short to a resurgent Naomi Osaka. She also had a strong run at Wimbledon, stunning former champion Elena Rybakina in the third round before losing to eventual champion Swiatek. No shame there.
Jasmine Paolini is a potential quarterfinal clash, the Italian fresh off having reached the final in Cincinnati. Pegula could be Sabalenka’s semifinal opponent, potentially meeting a round earlier than they did in last year’s final.
The Belarusian’s final boss in this event could be Swiatek for an absolute blockbuster of a final.
Is It Finally Pegula’s Time?
With Gauff not in the best of form and facing a difficult draw, Jessica Pegula may actually be USA’s best hope for a win on the women’s side.
She should feel confident about reaching the quarterfinals, after which things could get tricky. Mirra Andreeva has made a big rise this year and would be the toughest possible quarterfinal opponent. If Pegula can emerge, it’s potentially Sabalenka followed by Swiatek for the title.
Pegula’s form is definitely a concern. She lost in the first round at Wimbledon and lost to Leylah Fernandez in her opening match at Washington. That was followed by another shock defeat in Montreal, in the third round to then 386th ranked Anastasija Sevastova.
The 31 year old then lost in the same round in Cincinnati, to 40th ranked Magda Linette.
Based on current form, it would take a very brave person to think Pegula can go all the way at Flushing Meadows.
Best Of US Open First Round Clashes
[22] Vicky Mboko vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Donna Vekic vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
[11] Karolina Muchova vs. Venus Williams [WC]
US Open Path Difficulty
Here are the most difficult possible paths based on seeding for some of the key players at this year’s tournament.
[1] Sabalenka: Rebeka Masarova — Polina Kudermetova — Leylah Fernandez — Clara Tauson — Jasmine Paolini — Jessica Pegula — Iga Swiatek
[2] Swiatek: Emiliana Arango — Suzan Lamens — Anna Kalinskaya — Ekaterina Alexandrova — Anna Anisimova — Coco Gauff — Aryna Sabalenka
[3] Gauff: Ajla Tomljanovic — Donna Vekic — Magdalena Frech — Daria Kasatkina — Madison Keys — Iga Swiatek — Aryna Sabalenka
[4] Pegula: Mayar Sherif — Anna Blinkova — Dayana Yastremska — Belinda Bencic — Mirra Andreeva — Aryna Sabalenka — Iga Swiatek
[23] Osaka: Greet Minnen — Katerina Siniakova — Daria Kasatkina — Coco Gauff — Madison Keys — Iga Swiatek — Aryna Sabalenka
Raducanu: Qualifier — Veronika Kudermetova — Elena Rybakina — Jasmine Paolini — Aryna Sabalenka — Jessica Pegula — Iga Swiatek
