In fantasy football, there is a lot of luck involved when drafting in the first five rounds.
There are a lot of injuries in the NFL, and avoiding injuries to your star players you draft early is key to success.
Certain players are also overvalued, and some may exceed expectations.
Unlike fantasy baseball, where you win drafts in later rounds, fantasy football is all about getting the right star player.
Below, we will go over one player in each of the first five rounds that will exceed expectations and one player in each of the first five rounds that may be a letdown due to various reasons.
Fantasy Football 2025: Boom & Bust Players For Rounds 1-5
This list is based on PPR scoring, 12-team leagues, and using Yahoo player rankings as a guide to see where each player will be selected.
For each of the first five rounds, one player will be chosen as a boom candidate while another will be chosen as a bust candidate.
Round One
Round one is where you choose the star of your team. Below is one boom and one bust candidate for the first round.
Boom: Christian McCaffrey
Yahoo has McCaffrey listed eighth in their player rankings. This is a fair assessment as McCaffrey carries injury risk. However, McCaffrey also has the potential to finish the season as the highest-scoring running back in fantasy football. In PPR scoring, McCaffrey is a machine. There is no reason that if McCaffrey can play 15-17 games in 2025 that he will finish no worse than a top-three back in fantasy football.
Bust: Saquon Barkley
Yes, Saquon Barkley was an absolute machine last year. That is one reason to be cautious about selecting him so high this year. There is little to no chance he will duplicate his 2024 campaign. He played in 16 games last season, sitting out in week 18. He also played in four playoff games. That is a very high workload for a running back. He was hit a ton last year, and you have to wonder if wear and tear will catch up to him in 2025. Yahoo ranks him third overall, which feels a bit risky.
Round Two
Round two has a ton of good players, but there are some players ranked 13-24 that carry risk.
Boom: Drake London
Drake London is coming off his best season yet, recording 100 receptions, 1,271 receiving yards, and nine receiving TDs. He was the clear favorite for Michael Penix Jr. when he started the final three games of the season. In three games with Penix, London had a total of 39 targets. He went over 100 yards in two of three games with Penix under center. London has round one potential and wouldn’t be surprising to see him outperform players going in round one like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Derrick Henry.
Bust: De’Von Achane
This was a choice between Achane, Puka Nacua, or A.J. Brown. Round two, based on current rankings, has three players with a lot of risk. Two of the three are risky due to injuries. Achane is already dealing with a calf injury. He is expected to be ready for week 1, but it is not a good sign when a player who is going so high in drafts is already dealing with a calf injury that could linger throughout the season.
Nacua carries risk due to Stafford’s back. If Stafford is healthy, Nacua has round one upside.
A.J. Brown is being selected way too high. He is coming off a down year, and the Eagles run the ball a ton. Avoid Brown in round two.
Round Three
Round three has a bunch of solid players. One player projected to go in round three carries risk. Four QBs are projected to go in round three. They will not be listed as a boom or bust as QBs typically have similar seasons each year, and all four are star fantasy QBs.
Boom: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr. had a ton of hype entering his rookie campaign in 2024. Both in fantasy and reality. He did not quite live up to the hype. However, he managed eight receiving TDs. Harrison also had 62 receptions and 885 receiving yards in 2024. He is projected to go at the back end of round three and has the upside to be a round two-level player. Harrison worked with Kyler Murray in the offseason to improve their rapport. It would not be surprising to see Harrison catch more passes, go over 1,000 receiving yards, and hit 10 receiving TDs in 2025.
Bust: Omarion Hampton
Hampton’s fantasy value took two big shots this offseason. Star left tackle Rashawn Slater will miss all of the 2025 campaign. This is a big blow to the offensive line and the running attack. Another worrisome factor is that the Chargers will have a committee at running back. The offensive coordinator already hinted at this, and based on Greg Roman’s past, this will happen. Hampton is being ranked as a middle-of-the-pack selection in the third round, but he is too risky at that draft position.
Round Four
Round four feels like a make-or-break round in fantasy football. Based on current Yahoo rankings, round four is filled with risky players that may be best avoided.
Boom: George Pickens
George Pickens is ranked as a back-end fourth-round player. To be honest, when looking at the Yahoo players ranked 37-48 for round four, Pickens seems like the best and possibly safest choice. He will be the WR2 for a Cowboys team that will score a ton of points if Dak Prescott remains healthy. Pickens will see a lot of single coverage and have his best season of his NFL career.
Bust: Garrett Wilson, Kenneth Walker III, Tyreek Hill, & DeVonta Smith
Round four is filled with a ton of bust candidates.
Garrett Wilson will be catching passes from Justin Fields. Fields is an excellent athlete, but struggles to throw the ball well. The Jets’ passing attack will struggle in 2025, and Wilson should be avoided in round four at all costs.
Kenneth Walker is a walking injury. He never stays healthy, which makes his backup, Zach Charbonnet, a coveted target. Walker should not be trusted to go in round four.
Tyreek Hill is disgruntled in Miami. He and Tua are not getting along, and this feels like a possible recipe for disaster this year for the Dolphins. Hill is no longer a must in fantasy football, and he has lost a step. Hill is a trade candidate during the season.
DeVonta Smith is similar to A.J. Brown. No Eagles pass catcher is trustworthy to take high in fantasy football.
Round Five
Round five has some solid options with potential. This round has safer players than in round four.
Boom: Tetairoa McMillan
The rookie WR will be the WR1 for the Carolina Panthers. Rookie wideouts have taken the league by storm in recent years, and McMillan has the potential to join the club. Bryce Young played much better in the second half of last year, and this Panthers offense is ascending. McMillan is a great target in round five.
Bust: DK Metcalf
Metcalf is being taken early in round five, which feels high for a WR in an offense filled with question marks. Going early in round five means Metcalf will likely be your WR2, which is risky. As a WR3, Metcalf is an excellent option, but to rely on him being your second wideout is a risky move.
