As the 2025-26 NBA season nears, I’m unveiling a series breaking down players poised to make a leap, particularly those which may greatly influence the playoff race.
A prevailing theme you’ll notice throughout this series is opportunity. Most of the time, when a player takes a step forward, it’s because there is a vacancy. Whether it’s due to injuries, trade or some other force, a player has a chance to do more on the court and seizes it.
That is undoubtedly going to be the case for Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard. With Tyrese Haliburton expected to miss the entirety of 2025-2026 after tearing his Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, Nembhard will slots in as Indiana’s starting point guard and primary ball-handler.
During his first three years in the league, Nembhard has made a name for himself as a do-it-all, off-ball guard. He served as an elite point-of-attack stopper who masked some of Indiana’s defensive flaws and insulated Haliburton against the most challenging perimeter matchups each night. He excelled as a secondary ball-handler, especially in the playoffs, where he consistently rose to the occasion by hitting timely shots and increasing his scoring output.
Last season, Nembhard was among the most impactful players on the Eastern Conference champions. Now, it’s time to build upon that.
The Pacers’ chances of contending for a title this year are unlikely. However, the glass half-full outlook is that, without Haliburton, young players such as Nembhard can take the next step to help steady this season and be even better once Haliburton returns in 2026-27.
So, how would it look?
An Aggressive Mindset
Nembhard hasn’t been asked to score much his first three seasons. He averaged a career-high 10.0 points per game last season and has scored 20 or more points in just seven of his 208 career regular-season games.
Of course, these mild scoring numbers are context-dependent. The Pacers are known for their unselfish brand of hoops, ignited by the speed and precision of Haliburton, who propels them to play “random” basketball. In 2024-25, they had seven players average at least 10 points per game, and only Pascal Siakam cracked the 20-point barrier.
But Nembhard doesn’t lack the ability to produce gaudy scoring totals. Through two postseason runs, he’s averaged 13 points per game on .511/.473/.792 shooting splits. He’s scored 20 or more in six of his 40 playoff games. The Pacers will need him to maintain that aggression this year.
Operating as the primary decision-maker offensively, he’ll now have the ball in his hands more often. For his career, he’s been a proficient pick-and-roll player, ranking in the 78th percentile last season in points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. He also had a very good pull-up shooting season last year, hitting 39 percent of his pull-up threes and 48 percent of his midrange jumpers, which ranked in the 78th percentile for his position.
The Pacers’ offense was so deadly last year because of how Haliburton leveraged his pull-up shooting to manipulate opposing pick-and-roll coverages. Although Nembhard is not Haliburton, he must find a way to assert himself in these actions while balancing scoring and playmaking duties, likely by pressuring defenses as a scorer. The improved pull-up jumper will be a useful tool.
That said, the likely scenario is Nembhard experiencing growing pains as he adjusts to the increased usage. But with an extended leash next season, he’ll get free rein to experiment and figure out that balance. As a result, he’ll be better for it.
Balancing Offense And Defense
Typically, when a player’s role grows offensively, their defense suffers. It’s taxing to significantly exert yourself on both ends throughout an 82-game season, so it’s natural for one to let go of the rope somewhere.
Nembhard has to be careful here. What he provides defensively is vital for the Pacers’ approach of pressuring the ball high up the floor, forcing turnovers and getting out in transition.
Indiana was 5.2 points better defensively per 100 possessions with Nembhard on the floor last season. He ranked in the 89th percentile when guarding the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls. He finished 23rd in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus. Of the 20 five-man lineups to play more than 250 minutes together last season, the Pacers had two of the six best units with regard to defensive rating, both of which included Nembhard. He is a pillar for everything they want to achieve defensively.
Although it’s possible he slips with increased offensive responsibilities, there’s also the potential for Nembhard to have an All-Defensive-caliber season. Without Haliburton, the Pacers can lean on a defense-first approach, propelled by Nembhard’s point-of-attack powers.
That’s why there’s tremendous potential for Nembhard to break through as a star. His two-way skill-set, mixed with intrigue as a scorer, makes him a unique player compared to others of similar age and experience. He provides the stabilizing presence of a typical role player and showcases the possibility to be something much more.
Most people are counting out the Pacers as a major force next season. While they might not have the high-end ceiling to contend in the Eastern Conference, players like Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin, both of whom should see newfound opportunity, will help determine how far they can go.
If Nembhard does increase his offensive output while maintaining his defensive prowess, he could be rewarded with a potential All-Star nod as one of the East’s best two-way guards and the Pacers’ playoff prospects become much rosier.
If he can’t, his spot in the league is well-established as a trusty role player who meets the moment come playoff time. The Pacers will still have the perfect counterpart to Haliburton’s game and their “gap year” will illuminate what Nembhard can and cannot be. That’s useful, even if it dampens their 2025-26 ceiling.
But nothing, good or bad, has materialized yet. Nembhard has the potential to capitalize on this chance. We’ve seen it in spurts, particularly in big moments. Now, he has to do it over the course of an entire season. The Pacers surely hope he can.
