The race for the 2025 American League MVP Award has been back and forth during the 2025 MLB season. According to the odds, the race hasn’t been as close all year as it is heading into the final stretch of the schedule, with Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge neck-and-neck at the sportsbooks.
MLB Odds: Who Will Take Home The AL MVP Award?
Judge, who won the award last year, was the betting favorite to pick up his second AL MVP in a row entering the season. The New York Yankees slugger was listed at +300, with guys like Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson trailing behind, and his hot start solidified his standing atop the board. Judge’s three home run, eight RBI performance in just the second game of the season set the tone, and it looked like it would be his award to lose.
"The MVP race is over for me. Done. Over with."
Harold is all in on Cal Raleigh for AL MVP 👀 pic.twitter.com/gNDiMYVhR4
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 23, 2025
Across the country, though, a breakout star has made a case. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh set home run records during the first half of the season, and quickly became one of the favorites to win his first MVP award. His 38 dingers before the All-Star break set an American League record, and his current count of 58 is the most in the MLB.
Raleigh also leads the AL in RBIs.
Still, Aaron Judge was something of a heavy favorite to take home the hardware a couple of weeks back. He is the MLB leader in many of the other major stat categories, including batting average, WAR, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. He is 4th in home runs and 9th in RBIs.
So it made sense why Judge atop the odds board on September 12th. On that date, he was listed at -400 to win MVP, with Raleigh back at +320.
Raleigh, Judge Now Tied On The Odds Board
But things have changed rather drastically. As of Tuesday afternoon, the two are tied with identical designations of -115, essentially the closest that an awards race could be. It is an interesting revelation, given that there hasn’t been a major shift in production from the two players in the time since the 12th of the month.
JUDGE'S AL MVP ODDS ARE CRASHING…
Who's winning the award? 🤔
(via @DKSportsbook) pic.twitter.com/C4so5xV7vN
— br_betting (@br_betting) September 22, 2025
No matter how the final votes shake out, this year’s MVP conversation highlights two very different but equally compelling paths to stardom. Judge continues to be the face of power and consistency, carrying the Yankees with historic production. Raleigh, meanwhile, has become the heart of Seattle’s resurgence, turning timely hitting and leadership into a legitimate case for the league’s top honor.
