Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bengals vs. Broncos – The Bengals head to Denver to continue their push without star QB Joe Burrow.
Monday Night Football returns with a marquee AFC clash as the Cincinnati Bengals travel to face the Denver Broncos in a battle that carries major playoff implications for two AFC hopefuls. We pick out a same game parlay as we focus on the dominance of Denver’s defensive front and the mismatch against a shaky Bengals offensive line.
One thing is for certain: the Broncos are probably better than their 1-2 record shows, and their defense is one of the toughest in the NFL. The Broncos’ pass rush is elite and will be able to pressure Bengals backup QB Jake Browning heavily. On top of that, the Bengals’ run defense ranks poorly in EPA/rush. Combine that with the fact that JK Dobbins is receiving the lion’s share of backfield volume (75 % of RB carries), and that Denver’s usage in the passing game also supports this correlated parlay.
I like this home spot for the Broncos in prime time, and we’re going to pair Broncos −7.5 with Dobbins over 65.5 rushing yards in a two-leg same game parlay. Let’s get into it!
very certain that JK Dobbins would be one of the greats if he never tore his ACL & achilles pic.twitter.com/nxEE7xEJDR
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) September 23, 2025
Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bengals vs. Broncos
Leg 1: Broncos −7.5
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The public seems to like the Broncos, but the sharps love them. Just 66% of total tickets are on the Broncos, but close to 80% of the handle (total money wagered) is backing the Broncos at home.
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The Broncos’ defensive line ranks No. 1 in pressure rate per dropback. The Bengals OL is at the bottom in pass block win rate, and this highlights a classic mismatch we’re going to exploit.
Leg 2: JK Dobbins Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
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Dobbins commands ~75% of the team’s RB carries, and in a game where Denver can dominate the trenches, the ground game is going to play a big part.
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I love this scheme matchup: The Bengals’ run defense ranks 26th in EPA/rush and has been vulnerable to backs who get volume. Cue Dobbins’ carry percentage.
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In a blowout or semi-blowout script, Denver will lean on the run to control the clock and protect the lead, boosting Dobbins’ volume and yard accumulation. These two pair well for a viable game script.
| Leg | Pick | Line / Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos −7.5 | −105 |
| 2 | JK Dobbins Over 65.5 Rushing Yards | −110 |
| Estimated Combined SGP Odds | ++225 | |
| Odds shown are illustrative. Check your sportsbook for live pricing before placing bets. | ||
Which RB is scoring more points tonight: Chase Brown or JK Dobbins? #WhoDey #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/Vp5xooWdNl
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) September 29, 2025
This Bengals vs. Broncos same game parlay targets two correlated edges that I love tonight: Denver’s dominance up front and Dobbins’ volume in a favorable matchup. If the Broncos can pressure Browning early and control the line of scrimmage, the −7.5 becomes highly possible. Meanwhile, Dobbins’ over 65.5 rushing yards seems low in a game script where Denver leans on the run to manage the clock and protect leads late, especially with him dominating backfield touches for Denver.
The mismatch in offensive line versus pass rush, and the Bengals’ weak run defense, both align in support. At estimated odds of +225, this ticket offers value that doesn’t push into extreme longshot territory.
