Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bears vs. Commanders – The Bears head to Washington to take on the Commanders in an NFC showdown
Monday Night Football in Week 6 brings a headline matchup between two young quarterbacks: Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. The Chicago Bears, coming off a bye and sitting at 2-2, travel to face the Washington Commanders, who have found rhythm offensively under Daniels after a strong Week 5 win.
Chicago leads the NFL in yards per play, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams continues to gain confidence under new head coach Ben Johnson. Washington’s defense has improved against the run but remains vulnerable through the air, ranking 19th in EPA per pass and allowing the 7th-most net yards per pass attempt.
That sets up an ideal correlated parlay: Caleb Williams Over 31.5 Pass Attempts and Bears +5.5. If Chicago leans on Williams’ arm against Washington’s soft coverage, both legs have strong statistical alignment. Let’s get into it!
Two young stars. One prime time stage.
Jayden Daniels vs. Caleb Williams PT. 2 🍿 pic.twitter.com/VToocEYXrV
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 13, 2025
Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bears vs. Commanders
Leg 1 — Caleb Williams Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-123)
Caleb Williams has steadily improved under head coach Ben Johnson, and this matchup projects as one of his busier throwing nights of the season. Washington’s defense ranks 19th in EPA per pass and allows the seventh-most net yards per attempt, suggesting exploitable coverage gaps.
Williams has already attempted 30+ passes in three of four starts, and with Chicago’s running game sputtering (D’Andre Swift averaging just 3.3 YPC), game flow should tilt toward the air. If the Commanders’ offense, led by Jayden Daniels, maintains a scoring pace, Chicago’s response will come through Williams’ arm, exactly the kind of correlation we want in a passing-volume-based parlay.
Caleb Williams’ go-ahead touchdown drive vs. the Commanders last year.
Mr. 4th Quarter. #Clutch pic.twitter.com/mu0zGsr8a1
— Bears Facts (@DaBearsTakeOver) October 13, 2025
Leg 2 — Bears +5.5 (-110)
This leg complements the Williams prop perfectly. The Bears’ offense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play, and with a rested roster coming off a bye week, they’re built to keep this game close. Williams’ passing success directly supports Chicago’s cover chances. If he throws frequently and efficiently, it’s likely in a competitive, back-and-forth contest rather than a blowout.
Chicago’s improving offensive rhythm under Johnson, combined with Washington’s average secondary (19th in DVOA vs. pass), makes the Bears’ +5.5 line a valuable leg. Add in rookie standout Rome Odunze emerging as a legitimate WR1 threat, and the Bears have enough firepower to stay within striking distance.
| Leg | Pick | Line / Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Williams — Over 31.5 Pass Attempts | −123 |
| 2 | Bears +5.5 (Spread) | −110 |
| Estimated Combined SGP Odds | +250 | |
| *Odds as of 10/13/25 | Always confirm live lines and SGP pricing before placing bets. SGP math varies by sportsbook and boosts. | ||
This SGP hinges on a pass-heavy script for the Chicago offense. Williams has cleared 30+ attempts in three of four and faces a Washington defense that’s vulnerable through the air, boosting his volume case. That same approach supports Bears +5.5 in a competitive, back-and-forth game rather than a blowout, and it supports a clean correlation between passing volume and a cover.
