The San Antonio Spurs are off to an undefeated 4-0 record and 7-foot-3 center Victor Wembanyama has a chance to become one of the biggest underdogs to win the NBA MVP in the past 20 years.
Wembanyama entered the 2025-26 season with +1800 odds to win the NBA MVP award but that number has dropped significantly just four games into the season. Currently, Wembayama has the second-best odds to win the award at +275. In fact, only eight players have better than 100-1 odds to win the award.
Reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the odds-on favorite at +200. Nikola Jokic (+350), Luka Doncic (+600), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1000) trail Wembanyama on the MVP odds board, followed by Tyrese Maxey (+5000) and Anthony Edwards (+8000).
Wembanyama’s NBA MVP Odds Have Improved By 407%
Four games into the season, Wembanyama’s MVP odds have already improved by nearly 407x%. He opened the season with an implied 5.26% chance to win the award and came into play on Oct. 29 with a 26.67% chance to win the Michael Jordan Trophy.
If Wembanyama wins, it will be just the fifth time in the last 20 years that a player with double-digit odds went on to win the award. At +1800, only two winners have been bigger longshots before the regular season tipped off — Jokic (twice) and Derrick Rose.
Year
MVP Favorite
Odds
MVP Winner
Odds
Odds Difference
2024-2025
Luka Doncic
+350
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
+400
+50
2023-2024
Nikola Jokic
+450
Nikola Jokic
+450
0
2022-2023
Luka Doncic
+400
Joel Embiid
+600
+200
2021-2022
Luka Doncic
+400
Nikola Jokic
+1600
+1200
2020-2021
Luka Doncic
+400
Nikola Jokic
+2500
+2100
2019-2020
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+210
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+210
0
2018-2019
LeBron James
+385
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+475
+90
2017-2018
LeBron James
+400
James Harden
+1100
+700
2016-2017
Russell Westbrook
+200
Russell Westbrook
+200
0
2015-2016
LeBron James
+250
Stephen Curry
+650
+400
2014-2015
Kevin Durant
+650
Stephen Curry
+1600
+950
2013-2014
LeBron James
+150
Kevin Durant
+300
+150
2012-2013
LeBron James
+160
LeBron James
+160
0
2011-2012
LeBron James
+250
LeBron James
+250
0
2010-2011
Kevin Durant
+250
Derrick Rose
+2500
+2250
2009-2010
LeBron James
+275
LeBron James
+275
0
2008-2009
LeBron James
+250
LeBron James
+250
0
2007-2008
LeBron James
+500
Kobe Bryant
+600
+100
2006-2007
LeBron James
+250
Dirk Nowitzki
+800
+550
Jokic, Rose Were Biggest Underdogs To Win NBA MVP
Jokic (+2500 in 2020-21) and Rose (+2500 in 2010-11) were the biggest underdogs of the group to emerge as MVPs.
Rose also had the biggest difference (+2250) between the winner and the favorite (Kevin Durant, +250).
LeBron Was Most Common NBA MVP Favorite
The preseason favorite won the award seven times in 19 seasons or 36.8% of the time. LeBron James was the most common preseason NBA MVP favorite. He had the best odds to win the MVP award 10 times and won four times.
More recently, Luka Doncic has been the favorite four times in the past five years but has yet to win the award. No other player has been the NBA MVP favorite more than twice.
Player
Times as NBA MVP Favorite
LeBron James
10
Luka Doncic
4
Kevin Durant
2
Nikola Jokic
1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
1
Russell Westbrook
1
