The New York Jets have been the subject of trade rumors over the past few weeks, especially those involving running back Breece Hall. The speculation is that the team intends to keep the 24-year-old for the rest of the season, but may still consider shipping him out if they get an offer that they can’t refuse.
Is Breece Hall Worth A Third Round Draft Pick On The Trade Market?
The projected compensation for Hall is tabbed at a third round draft pick. But is he really worth that much to inquiring teams?
Here are three reasons why Breece Hall might not be worth a third round pick:
1. Upcoming Contract & Free Agency
Any team trading for Breece Hall would have to view him, at least initially, as a short-term asset rather than a long-term foundational piece. He is in the final year of his rookie contract in 2025, and is set to hit free agency at the conclusion of the season. It is unclear what type of money he’ll demand on the open market, and running back contract negotiations can be tricky thanks to positional shelf life and overall value.
Any team trading for Hall would need to weigh whether they’re comfortable surrendering draft capital for a player they might either lose in free agency or have to pay premium money to retain. This likely diminishes his market, and certainly doesn’t help the Jets’ efforts of receiving a third round pick in return.
2. Ball Security Issues
After showing strong control of the football during his college career at Iowa State, Hall’s fumbles have become more frequent at the NFL level. He recorded two fumbles in 2023 but saw that number spike to six in 2024, which led the team, though only two of them were lost. In the passing game, he recorded nine drops in 2024, which was also the highest mark of any Jets player.
While we still have a half of a season to play, Hall looks to have corrected the issue for the time being. Through the first eight games on the schedule, he has fumbled just once, and is on pace to cut his pass drops in half from last season’s total.
But last year’s mistake-filled campaign could certainly be held against him in the eyes of other teams, which could affect his trade value ahead of the deadline.
3. Positional Value
In today’s NFL, the running back position simply doesn’t carry the same value it once did. Teams have realized that productive backs can often be found outside the early rounds of the draft or even signed as undrafted free agents. Meanwhile, the physical demands of the position shorten most running backs’ peaks to just three to five seasons, making long-term investment risky.
Because of this shift, spending a 3rd-round pick on a running back like Breece Hall represents a significant commitment. That kind of draft capital is typically reserved for players at positions with higher marginal value or longer shelf lives.
Take Christian McCaffrey, for example. While playing for the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey was an NFL All-Pro who once led the league in total scrimmage yards and touchdowns. When the 49ers traded for him, the compensation included 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks. It was obviously a larger haul, but Hall hasn’t even come close to being the type of productive back that McCaffrey was in his early years.
