The latest UFC fight fixing controversy came after Isaac Dulgarian lost by first-round submission to Yadier del Valle at UFC Vegas 110. The betting line collapsed, the defense looked wrong, and regulators moved quickly to review what happened.
UFC Fixed Fight? Dulgarian Odds Swing in Lead-Up A Cause for Concern
Here we go again.#UFCVegas110 pic.twitter.com/D7oIJwKgJ9
— UncleWeezyMMA (@MmaWeezy) November 1, 2025
Dulgarian’s line dropped from -250 to -130 in the hours before the fight. That swing reduced his implied win probability from about 71.4% to 56.5%. A 15-point drop means heavy money hit the other side fast, which integrity monitors treat as a red flag.
Not only that, but a Yadier del Valle victory in the first round also saw a shift from about +850 to +500, indicating a huge gamble on this outcome too.
IC360, the UFC’s betting watchdog, flagged the movement before the walkouts. Top sportsbooks limited prop markets, and del Valle then won by first-round choke, the same outcome that drew the largest betting surge.
The Defensive Mistakes That Raised Eyebrows
Michael Chiesa breaks down and trashes Isaac Dulgarian’s performance #UFCVegas110 pic.twitter.com/syChuZ10cP
— MMA Prediction Guru (@PredictionMma) November 2, 2025
The finish itself made fans suspicious. After a scramble, del Valle took the back and locked in a choke. Dulgarian’s reactions looked uncharacteristic for a 6-0 fighter.
- He never fought the choking hand or controlled the wrists.
- He turned away from the hooks instead of toward them.
- He punched behind him instead of hand-fighting, giving up control.
Michael Chiesa, a UFC welterweight and analyst, broke down the sequence on the post-fight show and didn’t hold back. He said the choke was “jiu-jitsu 101,” noting that Dulgarian made basic errors no fighter at this level should make.
“You can even hear in the broadcast, ‘What is this guy doing?'” Chiesa said. “You peel the top hand, don’t punch behind you. That’s the most useless punch you can throw.”
Chiesa then blasted the overall effort, saying, “I’ve got to be honest here. That was an F-minus performance. It was absolute trash.”
Why Caesars and William Hill Refunded Bets
Refunds are rare, but sportsbooks did it to protect their credibility in the face of this alleged rigged bout.
- Customer trust: Returning money keeps users confident that operators act fairly during an investigation.
- Compliance: Regulators and integrity firms may ask for betting data. Issuing credits avoids claims that the book profited from a contested result.
- Public image: A quick refund costs less than a week of bad press.
Why The Krause Case Looms Over This
The speculation worsened because Dulgarian once trained under James Krause, who was banned in 2022 after the Darrick Minner betting scandal. That case produced multi-year suspensions for Minner and Jeff Molina and permanently banned Krause from UFC involvement.
This fight looked similar: a sudden odds crash, a quick finish, and immediate consequences. Within two days, Dulgarian was released, the Nevada State Athletic Commission withheld his purse, and Dana White confirmed meetings with the FBI.
The Ongoing Investigation
- IC360 and ProhiBet are tracking accounts tied to the del Valle props.
- NSAC still holds Dulgarian’s purse pending results.
- UFC says the internal review is active.
- Coach Marc Montoya publicly stated Factory X had “no involvement or knowledge.”
No one has been charged, but the optics alone are enough to shake confidence.
Why People Think It Was Fixed
- Massive odds swing from -250 to -130 right before the fight.
- Bets targeted the exact round and method that hit.
- Basic defensive lapses from a previously undefeated fighter.
- Immediate release and purse hold.
- Strong parallels to previous integrity scandals.
Even without evidence of wrongdoing, those facts explain why the public believes the fight was compromised.
What Happens Next
If regulators confirm manipulation, Dulgarian could lose his license and face criminal penalties, and the UFC could expand integrity checks across all events.
If nothing illegal is proven, the UFC still has a perception problem. Fans already see the pattern repeating.
