Florida State’s patience with Mike Norvell is wearing thin after back-to-back losing seasons. His huge buyout makes any change complicated, but pressure from boosters and alumni keeps growing. If the Seminoles move on, here’s a full look at the odds board and the most likely replacements, including both internal and external names with real traction.
Next Florida State Head Coach Odds
| Candidate | Current Job | Odds | Implied % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stein | Oregon Offensive Coordinator | +300 | 25.0% |
| Gus Malzahn | FSU Offensive Coordinator | +500 | 16.7% |
| Deion Sanders | Colorado Head Coach | +800 | 11.1% |
| Manny Diaz | Duke Head Coach | +1000 | 9.1% |
| James Franklin | Free Agent | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Jon Gruden | Former Raiders Head Coach | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Jon Sumrall | Tulane Head Coach | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Odell Haggins | FSU Associate Head Coach | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Dave Doeren | NC State Head Coach | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Alex Golesh | USF Head Coach | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Dave Clawson | Wake Forest Head Coach | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Brian Kelly | Free Agent | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Jeff Traylor | UTSA Head Coach | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Matt Campbell | Iowa State Head Coach | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Chris Thomsen | FSU Deputy HC / TEs | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Glenn Schumann | Georgia Defensive Coordinator | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Sean Lewis | San Diego State Head Coach | +2800 | 3.4% |
Top Candidates to Replace Mike Norvell
Will Stein
Stein is the favorite right now, after The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode said he is the perfect fit. He is young, sharp, and already proving he can run one of the best offenses in the country. Oregon’s system under him is efficient, balanced, and explosive, blending tempo with physical run concepts.
He is only 35 but has quickly built a reputation as a future head coach. His approach fits modern FSU priorities: aggressive play-calling, analytical decision-making, and a strong portal pitch. He would be a bold hire, but the upside is enormous.
Gus Malzahn
Malzahn is the safe internal pick. He knows the roster, has SEC credentials, and has already stabilized FSU’s offense since arriving. His playbook is proven, his teams are disciplined, and he is comfortable managing NIL-era dynamics.
The boosters trust him, and his relationship with key staff makes him the easiest transition option if Norvell goes. The question is ceiling. Can he push FSU back into the playoff mix, or would it be a steady but unspectacular tenure?
Deion Sanders
Deion brings star power and immediate relevance. His Florida State ties and national profile would energize the fan base overnight. He can flip a roster through the portal and recruits at a level few can match. But it is a risky marriage.
The buyout is manageable, yet his teams have lacked consistency in the trenches. If FSU wants instant media attention and talent influx, Deion is a live option, but one that comes with volatility.
James Franklin
Franklin offers stability and proven results. He is organized, recruits well, and knows how to handle the politics of a top-tier job.
The offense can get conservative under him, but he would instantly raise FSU’s operational floor. As a free agent with playoff experience and national recruiting reach, he is a strong CEO-style option if the school wants structure and experience rather than flash.
Jon Gruden
Gruden would be the wildcard hire. His name still carries weight, and his NFL background would appeal to donors and recruits chasing pro development.
The concern is fit, since NIL, recruiting, and modern college realities are not exactly his comfort zone. Still, the optics of an NFL-caliber coach returning to the sideline at a blue blood would make headlines and attract talent. He is a splash option, but not one built for the long haul.
