The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts are at the top of the AFC standings as we head into the home stretch of the regular season. And thanks to their surprising successes, their head coaches are the favorites to win the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year award according to the Polymarket prediction platform.
Polymarket Predicts NFL Head Coach Of The Year Award Winner
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel is currently the frontrunner. Polymarket has his likelihood of winning the award at 54%, due to his team’s standing through 11 weeks. Pegged as a lower-tier team heading into the season, New England’s development is ahead of schedule, and they sit atop the AFC East standings with a 9-2 record.
In Vrabel’s first year with the team, he has secured more wins than the franchise had in the previous two years combined, and there are still six games left to play.
When the season started, Vrabel had a 10% chance of winning Coach of the Year, according to Polymarket. That figure steadily rose, and he’s been the overall favorite since November 10th.
Shane Steichen Second Only To Mike Vrabel
It was Shane Steichen who held the top spot for most of the season leading up to November. Behind a career resurgence from Daniel Jones, the Colts are 8-2 and have the best point differential in the NFL, and are a couple of wins away from securing their first AFC South title since 2014.
Coming into the year, Steichen’s team had an over/under win total of 7.5 games, which they surpassed in Week 10.
Currently, Polymarket has labeled Steichen with a 30% chance of taking home the hardware.
| Polymarket NFL COY Chances | |
| Mike Vrabel | 54% |
| Shane Steichen | 30% |
| Ben Johnson | 13% |
| Mike Macdonald | 7% |
| Sean Payton | 6% |
At one point, the Colts’ coach had a figure of 58%, which was the highest number that any individual has had yet this season. But that was back in mid-October, when Indianapolis was 6-1 and the Patriots were only beginning to surge.
It is mostly a two-man race for now. Detroit Lions rookie head coach Ben Johnson comes in at 12%, with Seattle Seahawks leader Mike Macdonald sitting at 7%. Sean Payton of the Denver Broncos rounds out the top-5 at 6%.
