With a 2–13 record and two coordinators already dismissed, pressure around Pete Carroll has intensified inside the Raiders organization. Mark Davis has repeatedly shown a willingness to pull the trigger early on coaching changes, and the combination of on-field regression, offensive collapse, and public frustration has pushed the discussion toward potential replacements. If another reset happens, several candidates stand out as the most realistic options based on scheme fit, experience, and league momentum.
With the season nearly over, the Raiders are approaching an inflection point rather than a hypothetical discussion. The record, coordinator changes, and lack of week-to-week progress have put real pressure on ownership to decide whether another reset is coming. That urgency is reflected in this market, which prioritises offensive direction and long-term structure over short-term fixes, while leaving a narrow lane for experience-based fallback options.
Below is the full odds board with implied probabilities and detailed evaluations five of the most prominent names.
Next Las Vegas Raiders Head Coach Odds And Probabilities
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Klint Kubiak | +250 | 28.6% |
| Todd Monken | +500 | 16.7% |
| Joe Brady | +500 | 16.7% |
| Kliff Kingsbury | +900 | 10.0% |
| Adam Stenavich | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Vance Joseph | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Brian Flores | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Patrick Graham | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Mike McCarthy | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Dan Lanning | +3300 | 2.9% |
Klint Kubiak Favorite To Be Next Raiders Head Coach
Klint Kubiak sits at the top of the board due to the strength of his work orchestrating Seattle’s offense. His approach is rooted in rhythm, spacing, and quarterback-friendly structure, producing cleaner reads and fewer high-risk plays. The system’s use of motion, layered concepts, and play-action design aligns with the direction many front offices now prefer when reshaping an offense.
Kubiak carries a strong reputation for teaching fundamentals and tailoring scheme to personnel, qualities that appeal to organizations attempting a full rebuild.
His background across multiple offensive systems also increases his value. The main question involves scalability. Running an offense is one task; managing staff, culture, and weekly preparation at a franchise level is another. Even with that uncertainty, his profile places him firmly as the early favorite.
Todd Monken Strong Candidate To Replace Pete Carroll
Todd Monken offers one of the most stable resumés among the potential candidates. Baltimore’s offensive improvement under his direction reflects a clear creative vision paired with disciplined structure.
His work refining the passing game while maintaining a physical run element has drawn praise across the league, particularly for the way it elevates quarterback performance without relying on improvisation.
Monken’s blend of college head-coaching experience and NFL play-calling background positions him as a ready-made option for a team seeking immediate organizational clarity.
His planning, communication, and adaptability are proven strengths. The challenge lies in timing; leaving a contender for a roster entering a transitional phase carries inherent risk. Even so, his résumé places him in the upper tier of realistic replacements.
Joe Brady Among Favorites To Coach Raiders Next
Joe Brady represents the highest-upside profile among the leading candidates. His work in Buffalo has produced more structure and balance in an offense previously reliant on improvisation. By tightening reads and improving sequencing, Brady has helped the Bills operate more efficiently while maintaining explosive potential.
Brady’s age and adaptability make him attractive in a league increasingly shaped by young offensive minds.
His conceptual flexibility aligns with the needs of a franchise planning a long-term offensive rebuild. The risk factor is clear: Brady has never run an NFL program and would be stepping into a job requiring restraint, detail, and strong staff management. His ceiling is significant, but the variance is higher than with more seasoned candidates.
Mike McCarthy Veteran Longshot Option For Raiders Head Coach
Mike McCarthy profiles as the experienced alternative on the board. His track record includes a Super Bowl championship, multiple deep playoff runs, and consistent regular-season success. His programs generally rank well in operational structure, practice organization, and in-season adjustments.
McCarthy’s appeal lies in predictability and stability. For any franchise seeking a proven leader capable of steering a roster toward immediate respectability, his background holds value. However, questions regarding offensive evolution and postseason stagnation temper expectations. As a result, McCarthy fits the longshot category: a credible option, but not one positioned ahead of younger offensive specialists.
Dan Lanning College Coaching Star And Raiders Longshot
Dan Lanning remains a speculative name due to his success at Oregon and the energy surrounding his program-building style. His teams have combined physical defense, efficient offense, and strong roster management, making him a natural mention whenever NFL jobs open.
The gap between interest and likelihood is substantial. Oregon offers playoff access, significant resources, and long-term security, advantages difficult for any NFL vacancy to match. While Lanning’s traits suggest eventual NFL potential, the timing and circumstances make him a distant longshot for this particular job cycle.
