In order to continue their long streak of playoff appearances, the Kansas City Chiefs needed a positive result on Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys. But Patrick Mahomes and company came up short in the Thanksgiving bout, and they may have to be perfect the rest of the way just to be in consideration for the postseason.
Chiefs Playoff Chances Now Under 50%
The Chiefs came into the week on the outside of the AFC playoff picture. They were 6-5 after an up-and-down start to the 2025 season, and had just a 58% chance of extending their postseason appearance streak to 11 years. They faced a crucial crossroads in their game against the Cowboys, but couldn’t compete a fourth quarter comeback, and are now sporting a .500 record.
According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, Kansas City’s postseason chances now sit at 44%. And it will be almost essential that they win each of their remaining five games if they hope to make it.
Final. pic.twitter.com/JileAxYmNW
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 28, 2025
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they’ll take on some formidable opponents down the stretch. Their next contest is against the Houston Texans, whose defense is ranked no.1 in the league and is coming off of a game in which they sacked Josh Allen eight times. The Chiefs, however, have opened as 4.5-point home favorites.
If they happen to lose to the Texans and drop to 6-7, their playoff chances will drop to just 17%, all but eliminating them from contention. If they then lost to the Chargers the following week, their figure would drop below 1%.
Mahomes And Co. Likely Have To Win Out To Have A Shot
After Thursday’s loss to Dallas, Mahomes acknowledged Kansas City’s predicament. “You’ve got to win every game now – and hope that’s enough,” the quarterback said. “We’re going to play a lot of good teams coming up. If we’re going to make the playoffs, we’re going to have to win them all.”
Kansas City missing the playoffs with healthy Mahomes in his prime is crazy.
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) November 28, 2025
The Chiefs have finished in first place in the AFC West every year since 2016, but are all but eliminated from division contention this season. They currently sit 3.5 games behind the Denver Broncos with just five games left to play, and DraftKings has given them a +1600 designation to complete the comeback.
