As we near the start of December, the NFL playoff races are beginning to take shape. Games will become more important with each passing week, and some teams are already needing victories to keep their postseason chances alive.
NFL Playoff Watch: Which Week 13 Games Matter The Most?
Which Week 13 games hold the most implications on the playoff push? We take a look at three of the marquee contests for this Sunday:
(Percentages according to NYT Playoff Simulator)
Texans @ Colts – Sun. 1pm ET
The Texans are the winners of three straight, and are in the thick of the AFC playoff race with a record of 6-5. Week 13’s game against the Colts is their most important contest of the year to date, as they are not only making a push for the postseason, but are just two games back of Indianapolis in the AFC South.
If Houston is able to pull off the upset as 3.5-point underdogs, their playoff chances will improve from 43% to 62%. If they lose, their chances will drop all the way down to 30%, and they’ll be all but eliminated from contention in the division.
The Colts currently have an 86% chance of making the playoffs, a figure that would improve to 95% with a win on Sunday.
Rams @ Panthers – Sun. 1PM ET
The Panthers and Rams need to keep pace in different races. After starting the season 1-3, Carolina finds themselves just a half-game out of the NFC South lead, and will be hoping that the Buccaneers lose their 4th game in a row when they take on the Cardinals.
They’re still a couple of game out of the NFC wild card race, though, and their playoff chances are currently at just 24%. A loss wouldn’t be season ending, as it would drop their figure just 2 percentage points, but the Panthers would boost up to 34% with a win. If they happen to pull off the upset against the Rams and the Buccaneers lose, Carolina’s postseason chances will be up to 43%.
The Rams are safe when it comes to playoff chances. They have better than a 99% chance of qualifying this season. But they are just one game up on the Seahawks in the NFC West, and need to stack wins down the stretch to stay atop the division.
Bills @ Steelers – Sun. 4:25PM ET
The Bills currently have an 82% chance of making the playoffs, but picking up a win against the Steelers will be imperative. Not only would they essentially put themselves out of division contention in the AFC East with a loss, but their postseason chances would drop to 67%, and down again to 63% if the Texans win against the Colts.
The Steelers received an early holiday gift when the Ravens were handled by the Bengals on Thanksgiving night, leaving Pittsburgh in first place in the AFC North. They’ll need a win to remain atop the division, but will enter Sunday’s game against Buffalo as 3-point home underdogs. The Steelers currently have a 39% chance of making the playoffs, which would increase to 53% with a win. A loss would knock them down to 29%.
