The Kansas City Chiefs were hoping that their down year during the 2025 NFL season was an anomaly. But due to the injury to Patrick Mahomes two weeks ago, the start of next season is now in question, and it is unclear who the starting quarterback will be.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, four names currently populate the board, each with differing probabilities of being named the starter next September. Mahomes remains the clear favorite at 78%. The exact recovery timeline of the superstar QB is still unknown, but there is a chance that the rehab stretches well into training camp and perhaps even the regular season.
Don’t know why this had to happen. And not going to lie it’s hurts. But all we can do now is Trust in God and attack every single day over and over again. Thank you Chiefs kingdom for always supporting me and for everyone who has reached out and sent prayers. I Will be back…
— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) December 14, 2025
Trailing Mahomes in the betting percentages is veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, sitting at 42 %. Flacco’s potential landing in Kansas City as a stopgap optionNFL futures markets are questioning who will start at QB for the Chiefs in Week 1 of 2026 after Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending injury. has been the subject of recent speculation, and his experience and steadiness could make him an attractive choice if Mahomes isn’t ready by Week 1.
Behind Flacco are two internal candidates. Gardner Minshew and Chris Oladokun show significantly lower probabilities at 21% and 19%, respectively, and the final weeks of the 2025 season could be something of a try-out. Minshew had his chance, but suffered a knee injury himself and will miss the final two games, meaning that the show belongs to Oladokun for Weeks 17 and 18.
Oladokun, a practice squad quarterback promoted late in the 2025 season, completed his first NFL action when he stepped in following Minshew’s exit, but he remains a relatively unproven option. He completed 3 of his 8 passes for 15 yards.
Despite the fluid nature of the quarterback room, the market’s current spread reflects a blend of realism and optimism. Mahomes’ dominance when healthy keeps him atop the list, but the realities of recovery timelines open the door for experienced alternatives like Flacco and hopeful internal candidates.
The Chiefs are set to take on the Denver Broncos on Christmas night, and will close out the season by taking on the Las Vegas Raiders.
