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College Basketball Player Grades: Tracking The Best NBA Draft Prospects

Ben Pfeifer Written by Sports EditorBen Pfeifer
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As a part of my scouting process, I’ve spent the last few years creating Pro Football Focus-style grades to project impact to the next level. In an attempt to improve my player evaluation and legitimize my “eye test,” I hand-tracked thousands of plays to estimate a player’s play-by-play impact, graded through the lens of NBA projection. The goal of this ‘metric’ is to measure a player’s future impact, including but not necessarily box score information.

The table below includes the 52 prospects I’ve charted at least 100 minutes for in the 2026 cycle, including their Net Impact Plays scores on offense and on defense:

This serves as an updated version of the explainer I wrote in October 2024, where I discussed my motivations for the project. I don’t want to plagiarize myself and I’d recommend you read that piece as well, but detailed hand-tracking on film helps minimize some prominent cognitive biases (anchoring, aesthetic, recency) and keeps me grounded during the process.

Domination at a young age is the strongest predictor of future star impact, but even traditional advanced metrics only approximate long-term goodness. Most of the under-20-year-old college players atop the Bart Torvik BPM leaderboard made NBA appearances, but there’s an enormous range from Nerlens Noel to James Harden in long-term value.

But basketball players imprint on games in so many ways that never show up in a box score, from advantages created to potential assists to defensive rotations to crucial hustle plays. The Net Impact Plays also serve as a heuristic for play-to-play dominance, which I’ve often found translates to success at the NBA level.

These grades aren’t intended to be scientific or a replacement for traditional or advanced draft analysis; rather, an attempt to quantify and somewhat objectify my subjective scouting experience and see what I learn. Across the thousands of minutes of film graded, human error is bound to exist to some extent, but I’ll do my best to explain my attempts at standardizing my scouting process.

I’ll spend most of this piece discussing film examples of how I watch film and grade players on offense and defense, but let’s talk about the 2026 class briefly before that.

2026 NBA Draft Insights

Before we begin, it’s important to remember how small the sample sizes are for all of these players, as it’s early the season and some of these players only have a few games of tape against high major teams. I’m considering this a baseline for the class and the rest of the cycle, though the early-season results have influenced my opinions on players.

The top of the leaderboard features players that most consensus boards have in the top 10 — Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Caleb Wilson, Mikel Brown, Kingston Flemings, etc. Cameron Boozer rounds out the top-12, but his underwhelming rim protection and mobility on defense depress his defensive net impact grade.

Aday Mara sitting atop the leaderboard, though, likely will surprise many. It surprised me and I’m fascinated to see how he fares in conference play, but he’s an engine for a dominant Michigan team on both ends of the floor. He doesn’t often play significant minute totals, which influences the high totals, but his early-season play is undeniable.

I also included a variance number, which describes the distance in game-to-game scores for each players. I’m bullish on players like Boozer, Peterson and Hannes Steinbach who produce consistent impact grades. I’ve hypothesized that consistency and impact intersecting can help unearth future stars and this scatterplot visualizes that more clearly:

The rest of this piece consists of clips and explanations for how I grade prospects through the lens of impact translating to the next level.

Defensive Grading

What is a “Net Impact Play”? I define the scores as a net total of a player’s positive and negative moments on the court. I’ll think about what a play suggests (or doesn’t suggest) about a player’s ability to translate to the next level in some way. I score plays on a scale from 0-2, with zeros being neutral plays, ones being solid positives and twos being strong positives.

Plus-2 plays are fairly uncommon, but I score these plays based on component parts of impact, not necessarily a subjective ‘wow’ factor. Many of the best plays in basketball history we inherently know are spectacular contain multiple impact components — a crossover into a fadeaway jumper, a blowby into a poster dunk, a long rotation into an emphatic block at the rim, etc.

When I think about the standout defensive highlights in my time scouting, this Zion Williamson block against De’Andre Hunter immediately pops into my head, as I’m sure it did for many of you who remember it:

Converting this historic block not only required absurd vertical leaping from Williamson to block the corner three, but it also necessitated equally shocking horizontal speed to close the initial gap.

I will always remember this Evan Mobley block on Jalen Williams, not only for his impressive timing and body control on jump (+1), but also for his insane flexibility, rotating his right arm behind his torso (+1) to turn this shot into a turnover:

On to the 2026 class: this Neoklis Avdalas chasedown block in transition scored a +2, another example of an obviously spectacular play containing multiple impact components. He earns a positive net play for the block and contest itself, but the setup — sprinting back after a miss, positioning himself and timing the jump perfectly — makes this one a twofer:

Players can earn +2 defensive plays through multiple efforts in quick succession, something we’ve seen plenty of from Aday Mara so far this season. Disciplined rim protectors earn credit for their discerning timing blocks, and Mara does so here before moving his feet for another stop a few seconds later:

Here’s another +2 sequence on an early possession against St. John’s from Malachi Moreno, showcasing excellent mobility to cut off a drive attempt before exploding to block a shot on the ensuing switch-hunt attempt:

It’s common for blocks and steals to never appear on a box score because a defensive player’s teammate commits a foul. An on-ball defender fouling doesn’t erase Caleb Wilson’s lightning-quick explosiveness and timing on this block, but he won’t see any box score credit for a play like this, and, good lord:

Wilson had another, even more absurd defensive net impact play a few minutes prior in the game above, this armpit catch block wiped away by a Luka Bogavac reach-in foul on the shot:

Elite off-ball defenders constantly rotate and fly around the floor to make valuable contests and cover gaps, though many of these plays never show up in box scores. That doesn’t mean plays like this excellent rotation from Bruce Thornton aren’t valuable, forcing a difficult shot at the hoop instead of a wide open one after a breakdown:

Dybantsa earns a +1 here for this rotation, covering this post entry breakdown and walling up at the rim to force a miss without fouling:

While publicly available NBA stats track and log deflections, there isn’t an alternative for college basketball (as far as I know), but deflections almost always are net impact plays. Re-setting a possession and denying a potential advantage or shot created by a pass is undeniably valuable, even if deflections like this one from Jordan Scott won’t show up in a traditional box score:

Off-ball defensive plays happen more frequently than on-ball ones, but I also chart for point-of-attack defense and players earn defensive net plays for impressive on-ball stops. Killyan Toure is racking up quite the collection of these +1 moments, evading the screen, mirroring and cutting off Josh Hubbard’s drive (Lipsey’s deflection earns a +1 as well):

This play earned Toure a +2, first for cutting off Bennett Stirtz’s handoff and angle to the rim and then for deflecting the pocket pass. His ridiculous balance, footspeed, length and reaction speed all allow him to blanket an elite pick-and-roll handler (the second point notched him another +1):

I value advantage creation for offensive prospects (more on this later), and, conversely, defenders who deny advantages bring value against those players. Cameron Boozer not only earns a +1 for the huge rejection at the end of the play, but for sliding his feet and absorbing a bump to force a failed advantage chance:

Check out this sick Shelton Henderson recovery defending the ball, exploding back into the play and blocking the shot after Rob Wright created a slight advantage. It’s obvious to see Henderson’s impressive athleticism influencing this play:

The defensive grading also encompasses on-ball defensive mistakes, often related to physical tools and movement skills. It’s a primary concern for a player like Bennett Stirtz, who lacks the lateral quickness and hip fluidity to mirror and turn/chase with quick players at the point-of-attack:

Traditional defensive metrics, even more advanced ones, struggle to capture defensive mistakes and missed plays far more than steals, blocks, deflections or contests. Accurately evaluating defensive traits like awareness, processing and decision making on a play-by-play defensive basis requires insight into defensive schemes and coaching direction that outsiders usually lack.

When you watch this next defensive play, ask yourself who is at fault for this baseline out-of-bounds breakdown:

My money here is on Karter Knox, not Darius Acuff, who at first seems most at fault trailing the 3-point shooter. But Arkansas loves to switch these actions, and Acuff clearly points for a switch at the beginning of the clip, which Knox ignores, resulting in a wide-open three. But that’s only my best educated guess from the film.

I have no idea what the actual call here was, if Acuff was supposed to call for a switch, or if the staff communicated the call correctly to the players. I don’t have access to the minds of John Calipari and his players, so I won’t assign positive or negative credit to plays like this.

Here’s another blank play, this time from Mikel Brown Jr., who rotates from the corner and jumps at the driver who passes for a wide-open corner three. The point-of-attack defender covered the drive fairly well and Brown likely didn’t need to rotate and protect the rim. But some defenses instruct weak corner defenders to help hard and one could argue, through that lens, that Ryan Conwell starts his X-out to the corner a bit late:

Most of these 50-50 calls I won’t score, which results in lower defensive scores across the board. Defensive gaffes are rarely the fault of just one person and the collective nature of that side of the ball makes it challenging to ascribe credit to many plays, but plenty of grade-worthy defensive instances happen in every game.

Defensive processing and awareness are critical and underdiscussed defensive traits that contribute to defensive influence and projection. Take this one from Chris Cenac, who struggles navigating space and recovering back to his man. He’s ready to hedge out but reacts slowly to the ball swinging and is too late to help, earning a -1:

Labaron Philon zones out for a split second while defending the weak side, struggles to navigate a (moving screen) and allows an easy driving lane, but that all stems from that initial poor awareness or engagement:

The entire context of some possessions offers insight into defensive schemes and calls, like this AJ Dybantsa play, where he doesn’t execute the off-ball switch and allows a wide-open floater. BYU and Dybantsa off-ball switch earlier in the possession (watch AJ pass off and then re-attach to Karaban on the weak side) and poor defensive decision making allows a bucket and a -1 play:

And here’s another blown off-ball switch and a -1 from Dybantsa, and it’s worth noting that teenagers, especially ones with his offensive loads, often improve in this area, but that’s never a given:

Offensive Grading

Players exercise more control over the game on offense than on defense, resulting in higher offensive impact scores and generally more analysis and widespread evaluation on prospects’ offensive projections. Just as is the case with my defensive grading, most rare (but less rare than defensive) +2 offensive plays contain two impact components.

Again, you know special when you see it, manifesting in plays like this left-handed Brown Jr. hammer in the half-court:

A poster like the one above not only requires the vertical athleticism to sky and finish over the rim protector, but the first step and acceleration to cleanly win off the dribble as well. The same is true for this Caleb Wilson +2 dunk, showcasing demigod-like leaping but also the coordination and footwork to separate on the initial face-up:

But passing evaluation is the simplest offense application of my prospect grading and an easy example of where box score and even advanced underlying metrics fail to accurately measure players. Let’s return to Brown Jr., arguably the class’s flashiest passer, who doesn’t gain an assist from this wild, mid-air left-handed laydown on this drive:

Even the sport’s most brilliant playmakers rely on teammates finishing plays to reap statistical credit for their passing goodness. I’d guess that missed potential assists and passing chances comprise a significant portion of the offensive grades and scores for many players, including the aforementioned Brown Jr.

Despite the clip below ending in a turnover for Iowa State, Joshua Jefferson is hardly at fault and earns credit for a great pass against pressure. Even though his teammate drops the pass, Jefferson’s vision and awareness still generated a potential rim attempt:

But not all assists and potential are graded as net impact plays, even ones resulting from self-created playtypes (isolation, pick-and-roll, post-up, etc). I’m a big believer in the value of paying attention to passing window size when evaluating playmaking translation.

Take this Kingston Flemings assist, for example, kicking out to a shooter for a deep three. It’s a solid play, but one I’d expect any NBA point guard worth their salt to make, especially in a situation where the gap defender (#11) doesn’t put his hands up and try to deflect or alter the pass:

Assists like this happen constantly throughout any given basketball game, but here’s one more common example of a shot created from a pick-and-roll that doesn’t grade out as an impact play for me. Even in these ballhandler-drive actions, confounding variables like defensive scheme, teammate shooting quality and big man screening make passers appear more or less effective than in reality.

Pocket passes that don’t end up at the basket, especially into large windows, often won’t earn points by my grading scale. It’s not that plays like this Bennett Stirtz pass, aren’t valuable, but they rely on outside variables like a large passing window and the roller boasting the coordination and athleticism to convert this play:

This Christian Anderson potential assist also stemmed more from poor defensive coverage than any of his own action, as Duke commits two defenders to Anderson, neither of whom apply much pressure at all to him, and leave a wide open shooter one pass away:

Dunks are the highest value shots possible in basketball, so evaluators players who dunk often and finish at the hoop at a high clip, but not all buckets at the hoop are created equal. This Aday Mara catch and finish, which requires high levels of coordination and touch, earns him a +1 offensive net impact play:

Measuring advantage creation is another primary use case for film-based grading; it’s another paramount quality of elite NBA players that we can only approximate with traditional and advanced statistics. Most offensive stars create easy advantages to score and pass, whether through speed, size, strength, pacing or craft.

AJ Dybantsa can’t finish the dunk at the end of the play, but his ludicrous speed and ground coverage generates an easy rim attempts and forces massive defensive attention, still earning him a +1 without the finish for the advantage created:

The clip below earned Kingston Flemings +2 offensive net impact plays, though the box score only captures the acrobatic reverse finish. His elite first step burns Arkansas’s attempted hedge, which opens up the finishing opportunity and forces defensive rotation:

Players can also earn negative impact plays through failed advantage creation attempts. Christian Anderson doesn’t lose points for missing this tough shot late in the clock, but a -1 stems from limited burst and explosiveness to create separation in isolation without a ball screen:

Though most will conceptualize advantage creation as purely an on-ball skill, off-ball space creation fuels plenty of elite offensive players. Take this Brown Jr. +1 play for example, created not necessarily from any high-level passing skill from him, but an excellent juke to free himself from an over-aggressive defender:

This sequence from Tyler Tanner earned him +2 offensive impact plays and a +1 on defense; two of the three components of that score (the assist and the steal) are apparent on a live watch:

But the assist and the subsequent steal following a made basket likely can’t happen if not for Tanner’s more subtle but still critical off-ball creation at the beginning of the clip. Notice how filling the corner coaxes two defenders towards him and forces the defense into rotation for the rest of the possession.

The grading also accounts for some rare instances where college rules influence a player’s on-court production, most commonly on travel calls. College basketball doesn’t allow a “gather” step like the NBA does, or at least not as liberally, wiping away clearly valuable and auspicious play like this Hannes Steinbach (even if it is a travel, the touch is impressive):

I could add tens and tens more examples of film, but this is as far as we’ll go today. If you made it to the end of this piece, I truly appreciate you more than you know. I’m eternally grateful that I’ve been able to pour so much time into something that brings me this much joy and hopefully brings some joy to others as well. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@bjpf_) to share any questions, comments or feedback on the project and, again, thank you for reading.

Ben Pfeifer Written by Sports EditorBen Pfeifer
Ben Pfeifer graduated from the University of Missouri with degrees in Psychology and Journalism. He has worked in basketball scouting covering the NBA and the draft for over a half-decade, working for various outlets. Now, he covers the NBA, the draft and high school basketball.
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