The NBA MVP race has undergone a dramatic shift following a significant injury to Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić, elevating Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to heavy favorite status. With Jokić slated to miss at least four weeks due to a hyperextended knee suffered on Monday night, bookmakers and bettors alike have readjusted their outlooks, and SGA now stands firmly atop the leaderboard with commanding odds.
SGA Now Heavily Favored To Win NBA MVP Award
Jokić’s injury, sustained during a matchup with the Miami Heat, was diagnosed as a knee hyperextension with no structural damage. While the absence of ligament tears is good news for long-term health, the three-time league MVP will be sidelined for around a month and reevaluated thereafter.
Just in: Denver Nuggets' Nikola Jokic has been diagnosed with a hyperextension in his left knee and will miss at least four weeks. An immense sigh of relief as tests show the three-time NBA MVP's knee ligaments are intact. pic.twitter.com/u8qLE0GDd3
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 30, 2025
That timeline virtually eliminates his ability to qualify for MVP, as NBA award eligibility requires playing at least 65 games under the current collective bargaining agreement.
With Jokić effectively off the board, the betting market has shifted sharply. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now listed at roughly -450 by DraftKings Sportsbook to win MVP, clearly ahead of his nearest competitor, Luka Dončić (+370), while the next closest long shot, Cade Cunningham, sits at +5000. This dramatic gap reflects both the Thunder star’s elite play and the unique opportunity presented by Jokić’s absence.
He was already the reigning MVP coming into the season after a spectacular 2024-25 campaign in which he led the league in scoring and guided the Oklahoma City Thunder to a franchise-best record and deep playoff success. This season, he has again been performing at elite levels, ranking among the league leaders in scoring while guiding the Thunder to the best record in the NBA.
The Thunder, sitting near the top of the Western Conference, have consistently topped league standings, which is a crucial narrative advantage in MVP voting. Voters often reward dominant individual performance paired with team success, and SGA has delivered on both.
Dončić, while the second choice on the MVP board, has had a season marked by spectacular individual numbers but less consistent team success relative to the Thunder. Dončić’s Lakers have been competitive, but not quite elite, which dampens his overall MVP narrative despite his undeniable talent. At +370, he represents the primary challenger to SGA in a two-man race reshaped by Jokić’s injury.
