Beating a Brooklyn Nets team that’s lost eight of nine and sits 12-30 on the season means very little when you’ve lost nine of 11 entering that game. There’s no sugarcoating it, the New York Knicks are struggling.
Their place as the third seed is in a precarious position, just 1.5 games ahead of fifth-place Cleveland. The Knicks are also just two games ahead of a spot in the Play-In Tournament. Once sitting pretty at 23-9 and NBA Cup champions, New York is coming apart at the seams.
This is not what New York envisioned entering a season with massive expectations. It is all the more damning that the Boston Celtics now sit ahead of the Knicks in the standings despite the absence of Jayson Tatum. Let’s not forget that Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kornet, and Al Horford departed in the offseason, too. Then there’s the Detroit Pistons leapfrogging the Knicks and becoming the immovable object atop the conference.
When I wrote about the Knicks looking like contenders a month ago, I did note there are some red flags defensively. Not only has the defense fallen apart of late but the offense has as well. Over the course of the 2-9 slide prior to the game against the Nets, New York ranked 22nd in offense and 28th in defense.
Why has it all come off the rails for an extended period? Let’s dive in.
Brown’s Magical Offensive Spell Wearing Off?
The short answer is no, at least for now. Offensive lulls are understandable, even for great offensive teams. First, there’s the individual brilliance of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. You combine that with the floor spacing of Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Jordan Clarkson and Miles McBride. Implement Josh Hart’s jack-of-all-trades skillset around it all and that should theoretically be plenty of ammunition.
During this struggle, Hart missed eight games after getting injured on Christmas day. When the Knicks beat a solid Blazers team in his return, it seemed as though all was right in the Knicks universe again. They then proceeded to lose four straight. Falling short against the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks — the latter at Madison Square Garden — was especially concerning. It should be noted that Brunson got injured after just four minutes against the Kings. He proceeded to miss losses to both the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors.
The half-court offense is producing just 91.0 points per-100 halfcourt possessions the past three weeks. Only the 10-32 Washington Wizards have been worse. A good chunk of it flat out comes down to this being a make or miss league and the Knicks being in a collective shooting slump. Below shows just how cold key Knicks floor spacers have gone during this stretch.
The passing and drive numbers during these struggles are still well above last season’s marks. Another indicator that this issue should resolve soon is the team’s open shots (4-6ft. separation). The Knicks are hovering at 30% over the 11-game slide compared to just over 38% prior. Those underlying numbers within Brown’s process indicate this is more of a cold shooting stretch that will pass rather than a major point of concern.
Defensive Red Flags Have Become Fully Exposed
What should be alarming for Knicks fans is the defense. New York ranks 24th in half-court defense (101.1) and dead-last in transition efficiency (142.6) allowed since Dec. 31. The most concerning aspect of the defeats is that seven of the nine came by double-digits and New York allowed at least 120 points in four of the games.
“There was nothing to be said at halftime except for lock in and do your job,” Brown said after getting embarrassed by the Mavs on MLK Day. “The whole second half they scored 39 points, the second quarter they scored 44 points. Again, no adjustments, just go do your job. So, it’s within our guys but we all have to do our job for 48 minutes.”
New York was already a bad defensive transition team before the slide so let’s leave that aside for now. The Knicks are allowing five more points per-100 halfcourt possessions than they were just over a month ago, that’s where the biggest problem lies.
From the film, it appears that the Knicks are constantly doing too much. They offer help when it’s unnecessary, whether it be on the perimeter in anticipation of drives as well as inside. Examples of this were aplenty when Max Christie knocked down eight triples for the Mavs.
Miscommunication has been front and center when it comes to the Knicks’ perimeter defense. There are traps that don’t suffocate and switches that become soft double-teams. Other times, there’s complete commotion as one player isn’t on the same page and then everyone else is left clueless and overreacting to compensate. The result has been far too many occasions where ball handlers identify the attention but still have convenient enough passing angles to the man who’s been left alone.
Is Towns and Brunson On the Court Together Tenable?
A major talking point come the postseason will be the viability of Brunson and Towns together. The Indiana Pacers exposed that as a weakness to attack during the East Finals last season and teams will no doubt look to replicate that. Offensively, the Knicks scores nine points more per-100 possessions according to databallr, and you take that because lineups with those two are a plus-5.9.
As Brown has shifted the offense away from being so heavily reliant on Brunson and Towns, though, it has impacted Towns more negatively. He is scoring less than last season and his shooting numbers are well below what we’ve come to expect. This raises the question of what that ratio of how effective he needs to be offensively to make living with his defensive inadequacies an option.
Over the course of this stretch, Towns has averaged just under 18 points per game. He has shot 33.3% from deep and his post efficiency has also dipped from 1.00 point per possession a season ago to a putrid 0.78 so far this season. The 29 year old has also had his defensive commitment questioned by Brown publicly, after a play in Sacramento where he showed very little desire to get back in transition.
Brunson can’t be ignored in this. Going back to the previous video highlighting the Knicks miscommunication, Brunson can be seen consistently looking out of place. The team is 10.1 points per-100 possessions worse defensively when he’s on the floor. For some perspective, only Milwaukee’s Gary Trent Jr. (10.6) and Trae Young during his time in Atlanta (15.6) are the only starting guards who have been worse.
Towns may be easier to pick on and call out due to his history, but Brunson’s status in New York shouldn’t exempt him from criticism.
Knicks’ Floor Is Worse Than Anticipated
Ultimately, this stretch has shown that the Knicks can be exposed to a degree many wouldn’t have first anticipated. The East Finals were considered failure a year ago but this version of the team could even struggle in the first round.
The offense should get back on track but, even so, the East teams currently ranging from fourth to seventh don’t look as far behind as a month ago. After all the talk of the Cavs and Knicks possibly being the East Finals matchup entering the season, that could very easily be a battle between the fourth and fifth seed or third and sixth in the very first round.
It’s easier to believe contention is on the cards for the Knicks when they can find a way to be in the top 10 defensively. It’s easier still to not envision that when they are below league average defensively. Bottom 10 defensively and things will only continue to get worse.
New York is a place where time flies when you’re having fun and can take an eternity when you’re not. Brown believes his group has it within themselves to get the job done. This next stretch will show how much they believe in him.
