NASCAR Daytona 500 2026 Odds, Favorites, Expert Picks, & Best Longshot Bets

The wait is finally over. The Florida sun is beating down on the high banks of Daytona International Speedway, and the air is thick with the smell of race fuel and the weight of history. This Sunday, 41 drivers will barrel into Turn 1 for the 68th running of the “Great American Race,” but the narrative entering 2026 feels different.

Between a “Rowdy” pole winner, a 19-year-old phenom making his debut, and a defending champ chasing an impossible three-peat, the betting board is as crowded as a three-wide pack at 190 mph. 

Here’s how these storylines shape the odds and which drivers you should have your eye on.

2026 Daytona 500: Main Storylines to Watch

The betting board tells part of the story, but at Daytona, the narratives often drive the results. Here are the high-octane headlines to watch as the field takes the green:

• The Three-Peat Quest: William Byron is attempting to become the first driver in history to win three consecutive Daytona 500s. No legend—not Petty, Yarborough, or Earnhardt—has ever pulled off the triple.
• “Rowdy” Breaks the Curse?: Kyle Busch enters his 21st attempt to win the “Great American Race” from the pole. He’s 0-for-20 with a career-high 93-race winless streak on the line.
• The Zilisch “Wonder Kid” Debut: 19-year-old phenom Connor Zilisch makes his full-time Cup debut in the No. 88. A win would make him the youngest in history, shattering Trevor Bayne’s record.
• The Return of “The Chase”: NASCAR has reverted to the 10-race playoff format, placing a massive points premium on the 500. Expect a “points-racing” mentality early and maximum aggression late.
• Spire’s New Look: With heavy investment and the arrival of Daniel Suárez alongside Michael McDowell, Spire Motorsports is no longer an underdog—they are a legitimate superspeedway powerhouse.
• Hamlin’s Emotional Bid: Denny Hamlin is chasing a fourth Harley J. Earl trophy amidst a heavy offseason following the passing of his father. A win would tie him for second on the all-time list.

Breaking Down The Daytona 500 Favorites

William Byron (+1200) 

William Byron is the man of the hour. No one in the 67-year history of this race has won three in a row. Not Petty, not Yarborough, and not Earnhardt. Byron has spent the last two years dodging “Big Ones” with the surgical precision of a guy who plays too much iRacing, but history says the law of averages eventually catches up. A victory would instantly put Byron among the drivers with the most Daytona 500 wins ever. At +1200, you’re betting against six decades of statistical gravity.

Denny Hamlin (+900)

The odds-on favorite is coming off a brutal offseason—both personally and legally—but when the visor goes down at a superspeedway, Denny is still the gold standard. He’s looking for his fourth Harley J. Earl trophy, which would put him in the stratosphere of the sport’s elite.

The Heartbreak and The Hype

Kyle Busch (+1200) 

Busch finally did it—well, half of it. After 21 years of trying, “Rowdy” secured his first career Daytona 500 pole on Wednesday night. The 500 is the only glaring hole in his Hall of Fame CV. Starting up front is great for the ego, but at Daytona, it just means you’re the first one the pack tries to gobble up. Still, at 12-to-1, the narrative of Busch finally “crossing the finish line” is the strongest it’s ever been.

Connor Zilisch (+2800)

The 19-year-old Trackhouse prodigy is making his Cup debut with enough hype to power the grandstands. He won 10 races in Xfinity last year and has the composure of a veteran. If he pulls this off, he’d be the youngest winner ever, shattering Trevor Bayne’s record. The value at +2800 for a kid with this much raw talent is hard to ignore.

If he can draft effectively and avoid early wrecks, the +2800 payout makes him one of the most tempting longshots of the weekend.

2026 Daytona 500 Odds

The Daytona 500 is as much about avoiding disaster as it is about raw speed. 

Here are the latest Daytona 500 odds for every driver at Daytona International Speedway this weekend.

Daytona 500 Expert Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets

Here are our picks, predictions, and best bets for the 2026 Daytona 500.

Expert Pick: Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Blaney is arguably the best drafter in the Next Gen era. He’s got four top-10s in his last six 500s and a championship pedigree. He stayed clean in the Clash last week and looks like a guy ready to stop being the “bridesmaid” at Daytona. 

While I’m putting my lunch money on Blaney, expect Kyle Busch’s pole position to create chaos — it could help or hurt anyone in the top five early on.

Best Value Bet: Ryan Preece (+2500)

Don’t sleep on Preece. He’s fresh off a win at the Clash at Bowman Gray and has a knack for finding the front when things get chaotic. At +2500, he’s the perfect “middle of the pack” bet for a guy who knows how to muscle a car through the draft.

Best Longshot Bet: Michael McDowell (+4000)

We’ve seen this movie before. McDowell is a master of the “wait and see” approach. He’s excellent at staying out of early wrecks and drafting late, which historically has paid dividends at Daytona. He’s a past winner who knows how to survive until lap 199. At 40-to-1, he offers the kind of ROI that makes a Daytona weekend legendary.